The market hasn’t been this compressed since the August meltdown last year. We’ve been trading in a tight range for the past 3 weeks, circlejerking bulls and bears alike. Every time we get a whiff of a sustainable decline (bear trap), a Fed head comes out and starts spoutin’ off saying they have the tools to accommodate any global slowdown. Every time we get a whiff of a sustainable Ramp (bull trap), some pajama boy comes out and rallies hard with the short camp. We’ve been in an uptrend the past 2 months and now we are finally starting to see a leveling off. We could be resting for the next move higher (pain trade/most likely) or we could be in a sea change where the lines for the Ark will stretch across the globe. In that case, you should ask Fly if there are any remaining tickets being issued.
Earnings season is upon us and it doesn’t look good. But, the great thing about earnings is that they don’t matter. Look at Alcoa for instance: their first-quarter earnings fell 92%, hurt by weak aluminum prices, and said they could cut as many as 2,000 jobs. So what is Wall Street’s response? Alcoa isn’t a bellwether anymore. Although I agree with them, you can bet your ass they wouldn’t be saying that if Alcoa didn’t suck so much.
Regardless, the market is waiting for a catalyst and the only one I see is earnings. Do we ignore the fact that revenues are earnings will be down year over year as long as they beat consensus and the whisper number? Current estimates from analysts have earnings declining over 8% from last year. But, as long as we can just ignore energy, materials, and banks, it should just be transitory. We only have 2 and a half more weeks until the ‘Sell in May’ folks come out from the shadows.
Side muse: Does anyone still follow the Presidential election? The appeal seems to be waning. I think everyone is just so damn demoralized with the lack of options that we’ve all just given up. I’m still writing my name on the ticket come November. I would appreciate it if you would do the same.
#Ramp4Prez
PPS: Shout out to @forensicinvstor for the lovely featured image.
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range-bound @ 2020 / 2060
The next leg higher or lower is going to have heads rolling. Bollinger bands are itching 4 a breakout.
I’m guessing we’re going lower though. Vol has finally caught a bid and it’s relatively insane to think we can have a 13 handle on VIX going into earnings season.
I tend to agree it doesn’t look very bullish. But too many swaying in the bear camp and we might just continue to rip higher. Hence, I’m forever bullish.
It’s certainly a longterm winning strategy unless you’re trading asian markets.
How’s that 3:30 ramp strategy been performing in a post-QE world?
I’d love 2 set up my own algo but I’m having trouble finding a good way 2 backtest it. No back-testing = no go
Shitty lately. Works better when homegamers freak out. Too many people know about it at this point. I need to lay low for a while.
Could always just try 2 catch the 2am-4am swing in ES pre-european open.
or
The NKD “mysteriously” spikes a solid 200pts every day @ the japan open… my notes art in front of me but i think if you buy @ 6:55pm & sell 7:15pm.
Something like that.