THE PAIN TRADE

Trying to determine what the crowd has been thinking hasn’t been easy recently. However, it occurred to me yesterday after a twitter conversation that even the bears are looking for a rally here in order to get short. The pain trade here is not getting a rally. Force the bears to participate lower, should they want to participate….and stop out longs. Seems to be the same old play that the market has been working forever.

Fortunately, there’s a really low degree of correlation here. All my China names are up, and several other plays are helping keep things afloat as well.

Considering getting smaller here. Will decide by the close.

If you’ve been following the comments section of my last blog, you’d know that an unfortunate event has taken place.

Long time reader “Bchu12” made an inappropriate and unprovoked comment that landed him in the “outer matter” of iBankCoin.

To be brief, here’s a snapshot of what took place:

If you know “Bchu12” or his alter ego “Chub,” you’d know he’s an asset to the blog. Here’s a short scrapbook of reasons he’s such an asset over the years.

I could go on for hours, but will respect this sad moment for our community.

#RIPBCHU

Doubled up in $CRM not long ago. Ouch.

04:10 PM EDT, 08/31/2016 (MT Newswires) — Salesforce.com Inc (CRM) reported Q2 revenue of $2.04 billion, just ahead of the analyst consensus of $2.02 billion on Capital IQ. Non-GAAP earnings were $0.24 per share, two cents better than the Street view.

For Q3, the company expects revenue in the range of $2.11 to $2.12 billion, vs. the analyst view of $2.12 billion. Non-GAAP EPS is targeted at $0.20 to $0.21, vs. expectations of $0.24 per share.

For FY 2017, Salesforce.com expects revenue of $8.275 to $8.325 billion and EPS of $0.93 to $0.95, vs. the Street consensus of $8.346 billion in revenue and earnings of $0.95 per share.

Price: 75.50, Change: -3.92, Percent Change: -4.9

Set to open in the low $70’s. I’m going to lighten up on my $AMBA and take some shares for LT account tomorrow.

This is probably the most important day here since the early August “Downgrade of Stocks for a 3 month window” bear trap. Not a bad way to scare folks out of their stocks and buy them back at a discount.

We’ve seen a similar set-up in stocks to that of the first days of August. Today’s higher low comes in at a critical spot here. I think the conclusion of today’s session will give us an idea of whether we see a volatile September, or whether it waits til October.

I took a /TF long at 1233 today, sold $CHK at $6.25 from $4.21 and used the proceeds to buy this dip in $BIDU and $GPRO. Planning on unwinding a few trades at the close as well. At the moment, the Russell didn’t follow the /NQ, /ES and /YM to this new LOD.

Curious to hear any constructive market thoughts here.

I was very busy getting things prepped for Boot Camp yesterday, and didn’t get a chance to post my buys. I bought only $CMCM and $X calls yesterday. I have a deep list of set-ups I like, but those were all I took yesterday.

Today, I booked half of $CTRP ahead of earnings. I’m in the process of taking down some $SPLK, and am watching $TUBE, $BABA, $WTW, $RHT, and $CYBR.

I’m going to get into my LT account and take down some $WNC and $MDRX as well.

What are you trading today?

I always get excited for these events, and I’ve prepared some great things we’re going to cover this week at our Q3 Boot Camp.

Again, if you’re on the fence about attending, here’s the session outline:

Session 1. Analyzing the Sector Rotations of 2016 and What to Expect Heading into the Fall

Session 2: Beyond the S&P: A Look at Global Markets in Turmoil

Session 3: The Scariest Charts Heading Into Year End

Session 4: Will Silver and Gold Collapse This Fall or Continue to Shine?

Session 5: My Single Best Idea for Q3, and How the Elections Will Affect Your Trading

To my After Hours with Option Addict constituents, I need a hall pass for tonight’s session. I’ve got too much to get set up this afternoon. However, I’ve prepped a watchlist in my absence, which can be found here.

I do plan to meet for the remainder of the week. Please contact me with any questions.