iBankCoin
The first hit is always on the house.
Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts

CAN YOU HELP ME? I SEEM TO BE TRAPPED

$FEYE is being completely decimated in after hours trade, down about 15% and sitting at new all time lows.

I have a 5% position in this name, and my basis is a laughable $34.50.

Why do I still own this you ask? Because I am a dumb shit and like to own the worst stocks possible.

I anticipate the open tomorrow will bring a waterfall of sellers, fleeced with panic, fear, and a new found hatred for this company. Any persons holding any position in this stock now represent an easy target, backed into a corner with absolutely no hope for relief.

So I can capitulate for a massive loss, or ride the morning pain train.

So yeah, I got that going for me. Was hoping that might cheer some of you asshole trolls up a little bit, seeing as you’ve gotten quiet lately. Feel free to point and laugh.

 

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HOUSE KEEPING

We’ve been talking about the market leveling off soon and taking a breath.

@RyanDetrick offers great market stats via Twitter, and posted this seasonality chart for the month of November, going back to 1950.

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The first week of November was a smash, but things typically die down for the next few weeks before rallying into Thanksgiving.

Again, this has no bearing to why we made $6 per share in $NK this week, but it may be good to know if you are holding market correlated instruments.

Participants are still looking for action here, which should make trading breakouts and such a pretty fun gig for the next few weeks.

I am booking a few things today, and have bought up some $X calls.

More later,

OA

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TODAY WAS A GOOD DAY

I’ve made more this week than I have an any single month in the last few years. I’ve been trying hard to keep the balance hidden, but days like this you have to look.

Holy shit.

The QQQ’s were the first to hit the 52 week high mark this week. The SPY is within fifty cents.

What about the market hitting overhead supply? Trapped longs?

Non-existent when you factor in the breadth readings over the last year. Like most have pointed out, smart money sold earlier this year. Why? There wasn’t shit worth trading. Now that the market presented an entry point, that cash was deployed. And there was more cash (as a percentage) readily available now than there has been in the last 20 years.

It would be one thing if that “supply” represented trapped buyers. Any indicators will illustrate distribution in the summer range. Not accumulation.

Now that we’re here, let me ask you, is this “frothy?” Is this “enthusiasm?”

You have to consider much more than price when answering that question, because I am still blown away at those that are not participating in this, or even worse, are fighting this. That’s why the market keeps trading higher. It will continue to do so til morale improves, lol.

I’m done with that argument though. Sincerely. Take it elsewhere. The heavy lifting was done back at the lows, where it needed to be. I’ll point out individual ideas from here, but you can have your market analysis back. I no longer require it.

OA

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FOUND ANOTHER EASY TARGET

Oil Trolls. This was an epic sentiment experiment. We flagged this at the lows in crude.

Oil prices EXPLODED the following day, paused, and are EXPLODING higher yet again.

We knew this was a crowded short, as too many people reengaged the short into the hole, or bought into Goldman’s $20 Oil Headline.

This is an interesting move, especially into API this week.

Anyone got a take here on oil?

 

 

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LET ME SHOW YOU SOMETHING

This is that point where the market quiets down. But the funny thing is, my stocks are exploding.

We no longer require “the market” to facilitate profits in stocks. The speed is gone, and correlations have been boot stomped to multi-year lows.

What does this mean? You have a better chance of producing a gain in a stock, than you do in any market correlated instruments.

This is why I claimed yesterday that you would make a lot of money into year end. For the first time in a long time, we’ve entered back into a market of stocks, rather than a stock market.

Start looking around at stuff that has lagged the rally a little bit, as we’re seeing further confirmation of rotation here today.

Top picks?

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