Oil Trolls. This was an epic sentiment experiment. We flagged this at the lows in crude.
Oil prices EXPLODED the following day, paused, and are EXPLODING higher yet again.
We knew this was a crowded short, as too many people reengaged the short into the hole, or bought into Goldman’s $20 Oil Headline.
This is an interesting move, especially into API this week.
Anyone got a take here on oil?
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I added to my short SCO 74.49. Expect the range to narrow to 48 ish to 45 ish into the Dec 4 opec meeting. I do regret not taking some profit at 42.59-43, however, I am playing for a bigger score and the trade is manageable.
Want to reiterate that you were way out in front of that big drop in oil. This post was only about the trolling that took place. Respect.
No doubt.
I should add that this short trade it’s being balanced by following your IWM thesis. Long and strong WTNN & KMI which just woke up. Also short long bond as much as I am short oil. Tbt responding.
WYNN ….hate typing on these Damn phones!
What do you make of this? http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/10/gold-oil-from-1988.png
I cannot argue that correlation which is why I have been selling straddles and/ or strangles to manage the decay and seasonality on my profitable GDX position. It is my belief that oil will spike down sometime between now and next March. My reasoning is that there will be a period when there is little demand for spot crude over the fall/winter.
Why not just balance long oil and iwm and make a shit load of money
It is my belief that we will melt up without oil’s participation. The melt up will force the Fed to begin raising rates. Stocks in general can handle that for a while. Oil cannot.
Also in hindsight I should have all my 1/2 position and reloaded here. The clue to do that, which I missed was noting that oil stopped going down 1.50 below the range just as it had stopped going up 1.50 above the range in early October. I concluded then that this was just algorithmic trading by dealers continuing to balance their books from the July/Aug drop.
CRC to 12$. Been adding from high 3s down to low 2s. This is THE best risk /reward in oil. They don’t drill but flood existing wells. I’m mad I didn’t buy 10k shares cuz it’s been my top conviction for literally months
Check out HACK… looks clean to $29…
Picked up a TDC Dec 30 just now. Earnings on deck, FYI.
My limit sell @ 11.75 on $UWTI might have triggered but I am also up 200% on a $COP call I picked up based on your comment “look at COP, how could this not go up if oil…” Nice one, OA.
Bought WPRT. (kind of an oil play)
Watching SRPT for next pullback. Missed this mornings lows by pennies.
Both are trades not investments.
OA,
How long do you plan to hold AMBA?
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2015/10/28/oa-buy-and-tuck-amba/
OK. Hard to tuck with these gains.
That’s why I said “don’t look at it.”
AMBA up 15% lol
Some real FIMO in this one.
Anyone like tsla into the numbers??
This is just the beginning of a monster move in oil wait till q1 rolls around and seasonality takes place
My take? Sell oil here
I agree but one must be careful. Legit oil rally if oil can close above 51 on a weekly basis.
You looking at Brent? All the same I guess but I look at the wti
WTI odds what I am trading
Long way to go for 51 still
Jeff do like tsla here ?
Sticking with growth stock thesis it should breakout
FIMO on amba. FIMO
Had my order ready to go this morning when it was up 7% but i didnt wanna f ‘ing chase
Anyone care to share thoughts on how much gas they think PYPL has in the tank before a pullback?
Speaking of WTIC – The trend is very strong to the downside still. Commodities trend for sometime. Usually, a downtrend has a sizable move for about 6-12 months forming a bottom. With the face of what is going on in the world and still being down -60% from all time highs on WTIC and up only +34% from 2009 lows. That is how commodities work – it is very dangerous to buck the trend. Could it bounce temporarily – sure, but it won’t last long until it comes down.
Why did you change your handle?
This LOCO looks pretty damn wound up
OA, URA looks like something you might like. Aversion/wedge on the daily. No position.
Why is the VIX positive right now?