Long time no time.
Man, my life almost changed a couple weeks ago and I needed the break to gather my thoughts, to be with my family and to rally around my daughter’s recovery…which will still be months in the making. Thank you to the handful of you that offered thoughts and prayers in her behalf. There are some good people that still visit this little corner of the site and I appreciate you.
This year had already been a weird roller coaster for me. Not always P&L related (although up til last month, I chopped in a range for 3 months before I got my mojo back)…but more of a change in environment (blog, not market) that I haven’t really developed a good feel for. With that and to be totally honest, lately I have really lost the motivation to blog. Over the years my little corner of this website attracted good groups of traders. Building that type of environment, along with training others to assist in finding opportunities is what I loved about blogging….as well as how accountable you have to be for what you put out there. When being critiqued, it forces you to step your game up.
I’ve built a solid group of readers here over the years. Folks that could carry an intelligent conversation, make contributions, and were competent enough to where you could trust them not to do something totally fucktarded – like put their entire account into OTM call options. This year more than ever, the vibe has totally changed. It got sloppy, dumbed down, watered down, and I let it impact me and the group. I suppose a change in vibe might be fine, but it completely shit all over the value I felt was contained within. Like anyone else, when you genuinely feel like you are not providing any value, you start looking for something else to spark creativity, to motivate, and to bring out the best of what you have to offer. Plus, the decor here around me changed drastically and I opted for Peanut Gallery rather than keeping up with the pace of change.
As most of you know, I’ve taken some steps to move back towards money management and have started the process of launching a fund. My goal was to be up and running before school starts. I feel the massive shifts in the industry offer unique opportunities to guys like me…especially when the masses have given up on active management. I’m confident that this new venture will spark the flame that I have lost for the daily grind and will motivate me to compete and go all out for my investors, rather than let dementia riddled retired assholes heckle me or let the 20 something catamites around here talk down and pick fights with me. I’m kinda spent on that front.
With the recent chaos going on in my life, I had given the thought to go back into hiding. After all, this is the phase in the market where participating is easy, everyone is an expert, and distinguishing value from one retard to the next is more difficult. In recent years, I’ve made calls that needed to be made and said things I felt needed to be said. I was content to step down – at least for a period of time to get my mind right again. After chatting with Fly a little last night, I’ve decided to try and put a little more effort into building back up what once was. I apologize for letting this place suffer the way it has. I’ve had more distractions in the year than I’ve had in the last 5 combined. Hoping that with a little help from the readers, we can develop another good market/stock picking narrative in here again.
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Welcome back. And fuck those guys.
Glad your daughter is on the mend and recovering. Always appreciate your insight on markets in the blog and in AHWOA and looking forward to finishing 2017 Strong.
“Glad your daughter is on the mend and recovering.”
I tend to make the most money when I’m the only one on here, but I will welcome more comments anyway.
One question for all – do you have a favorite stock? One you follow constantly, trade in and out of really well, get the pulse of, etc.? I need a new one. My old flame was $NMBL, and I had slated $FIG to replace it, but both are gone now. So I’m open to suggestions.
And yes, agree with acehood, fuck those guys.
I’d give you a favorite stock, but I’m dementia riddled …or am I a catamite ..can’t recall.
Not a stock, but I watch the VIX curve like a hawk.
I can hear what you’re thinking…”oh, you’ve made money trading XIV, what else is new?” But I can’t think of any other product that consistently gives directional plays and premium harvesting opportunities at all times.
If you have the resources, I’d say launching an active fund late cycle is probably the best place to be in. It’ll be lean before the market turns, but you have the opportunity to outperform on the downside, which I assume you’ll crush. Having a fund with low downside capture, or even negative…man oh man you’ll be rolling in it.
In other news, I’m loving being wrong on oil month after month…might be time for a Costanza trade
Jeff I’m sorry to hear about your daughter. From the sounds of it she was involved in a car crash?
Your trading style works but requires strict, very strict, portfolio management. People in general are not able to follow strict rules. If they did everyone would be rich, and they’d all have perfect physiques. For this reason on killer win streaks you’ll have people that literally gain life altering amounts of money in a short time, and during chop/grind streaks people will blow themselves up…..and then turn the comment section into pure shit.
Good to hear your daughter is alright. I just chalked up your lack of activity on the blog as summer doldrums. I do appreciate all of the longer term setups you’ve been going over in AWHOA. Looking forward to things picking up again as we come out of summer.
Time to get back to living the dream instead of dreaming of living. Family first.
Family definitely puts everything in perspective. Wishing you the best.
Standing-O Jeff. For those of us who keep score, you’re as good as they come.
I’m not much of an options trader, but I know from the effort you put in to your picks and all of the webinars I’ve seen of yours that you care a lot about the readers. I only speak for myself, but I like what you do and think you’re a pretty stand up guy. no homo. Good luck!
glad to hear your daughter is recovering and you are back in the saddle. be well jeff.
This blog was an eye opener for me a few years back. OA’s analysis is way ahead of the market. Don’t come just looking for simple stock picks like many blogs throw out there for free – because that’s as much as their worth. Spend the time to appreciate the analysis, understand the trading style, and learn the discipline to keep the emotions in check. Not many people out there who genuinely help you learn how to find and execute great trades. Huge respect for OA for the all the efforts that entails.
Thanks OA, we appreciate your blog.
You put an amazing amount of effort into this stuff, really care about your readers and followers – and it really pays off. I’ve been following you for only about four months now, but its been amazing to watch things work. My account has done fine sticking to 93.5% stock and etf’s, 6% LEAPS, and 0.5% or less short term option trades. 6% is a little heavy for LEAP’s but for some of the base metals I must go a little big. Most of my LEAPs are 2019 and are I think mostly stock positions for you. The handful of times I went big on monthlies I lost, but then I made some weird choices like $COP to go big on. About 90% of my short term stock and option trades are your ideas and about half of my long term stock positions are yours (most of the rest is in VIOO, EFA, and ITOT). My employer and one of my brokers essentially force me to maintain some of those positions. Those young guys that might have bet too much on a single trade or even a string of trades ignored your multiple warnings. Hopefully they have learned the lesson that we all need to learn at one point or another. Better to learn sooner than later. Sad that they took their anger out on you and have missed out on the good stock and option trades that you caught this summer and will miss out on the many great opportunities to come in the second half of the year.
Glad that your daughter is going well and welcome back to blogging!
You don’t know me and I don’t post much, but it’s always refreshing to hear real talk like you just displayed here for us. Opening up about your life and feelings is not easy. It’s great to hear your family is on the road to recovery and I think (hope) that the haters will show some respect. Keep it real
Continued prayers for your daughter, wishing her a quick and full recovery. You have a tremendous talent in picking stocks and sharing that knowledge and I am certain you will do well in your money management endeavors. I’m glad to read that you are going to continue posting and look forward to the sharing of ideas.
Everything has been said but glad youre back.
Now how about that Steph Curry golf game? Just as poor as my Under Armour investment bless its soul. Kevin Plank is busy building huge headquarters with literally a brand new neighborhood around. Oh and he built a huge new waterfront hotel. Oh and he bought the Baltimore Water Taxi. At least while the company has started losing money every quarter he is keeping Baltimore nice.
Wow man I’m glad everything is ok. If life has a meaning it’s to hold those closest to you dearly, IMO.
As a long time follower and a customer, thankful for all that you do. You keep showing up. You keep helping us make coin. Everything else is fake news. Godspeed!
Welcome back Jeff and continued prayers for your daughter. Ignore the trolls and enjoy what you excel at. We stand with you and glad to support the value you provide in AHWOA.
I’m sorry to hear about your daughter. I hope everything works out for you and yours.
Please keep us apprised of the fund you are starting up. That is something I would definitely be interested in.
I’m sorry to hear things have been tough but your family will come out stronger in the end. Friends and family are the most valuable asset anyone owns and should be treated that way.
OA, first off, I’m glad to hear your daughter is on the road to recovery. Wishing her and yours all the best. I recently found out that my wife is pregnant with our first child, and there’s a “switch” that just turns on, and nothing matters more than your loved ones.
That being said, great to hear your found that mojo again. Although I only blogged for about 8 months on iBC (at my new firm, I’m prohibited hence the main reason for stopping), it can be difficult putting your thoughts out there. But I always go back to knowing that any ridicule or shame people bring on is because they’re too scared to do it themselves or are not dedicated. Can’t wait to read your material brotha.
Ive been away so very happy to hear of the good news on both fronts. Look forward to a speedy recovery and return to discussion here at the blog. Enjoy the weekend OA.
Family first, then focus on winning. The rest is motherfucking noise. Best wishes! Love your style, keep it up
Been a lurker here since day one. Survived prostate cancer, leukemia, skin cancer all in the past five years. These things test your inner strength and ability to deal with the unforeseen. Jeff, you and your family are being tested and will come out stronger and better for the experience. I know, I did and I’m pushing 71 years of age now! My best to you and all you do.