I’ve been stressed, distracted, and overly focused on getting prepped for a move. While blogging here, I am trying to piece out fragments of a market narrative, trade ideas, and the usual daily therapy for my readers.
As I’ve said, I do believe that the market narrative starts to speak a bit louder in the coming weeks. For all the reasons I’ve mentioned, but most importantly because the mood I warned about is starting to spread just a little bit.
At the last couple boot camp’s, I tried to anticipate what the first market pullback might look like. I said that the first couple “dips” would be 1-2%. They have been just that.
I also talked about an April to early May rally that would need to suck in traders at high prices. I think we’re seeing that to an extent right now.
I also talked about “Sell in May and Go Away.” My take on this is that people will make that remark in years where the market has been more difficult. They don’t talk about leaving in May during the good years.
If people are deciding to stay and play, we might get our first good “woosh” of the year. Nothing to crazy…but enough to kick these late buyers out.
The structure overall still says we’re heading much higher over many months to a year, but I’m already looking to adjust strategy starting in 1-2 weeks.
OA
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would you say to book gains in stock holdings here?
Noooo.
I think worst case = 5%ish. Sell some calls against stock.
is anyone else having issues with ibankcoin.com on mobile where you are not able to see comments?
Yeah all day.
Have you looked at carmax. Fundys are lining up for a big whoosh moment…
Not the fundies, but I’ll have a look.
I’m waiting on a trade here. I’d pay for your opinion on the ta of this stock or sector. Long and short of it last year you could lease a car for cheaper than it was to buy it and the leasing companies would say x car only loses 10k when it really loses 15k. The day of reckoning is at hand for them.
TWLO quickly replacing NTNX as the best looking stock out there
ughhh… hell no
Exactly
that’s a predictable response. Same response when it was in the mid 30s, low 30s and high 20s. eventually, you’ll be right
Eventually I’ll be the one selling it to you
I would agree that things are getting frothy. It feels like we are going to have a mini shake-out after this earnings season.
Picture game on point.
Its so weird how it challenges you. I passed on three big earnings winners and now after holding AKAM I’m thinking I’m too greedy and its time to step out again. Tuff to say and that’s why I roll w OAs playbook. Most of my shit is still gang busters though and this week is already off to a really good start and my balance is near ATHs. I and don’t think I can walk away from those steel stocks here. I have X, AKS, CLF – all totalling less than a double position but with a lot of gusto when just trading stocks.
Then it’s like, well I could use a break so I’ll step aside for a moment… It’s a very hard game to play day after day.
Lol, that picture . . .
Bad free cash flow on the entire market besides walmart and american airlines. Healthcare is the next horizon. The tech thing is overdone. What do they do here besides data / robot analysis? Maybe video games? Nothing a human cant do besides some serious number crunching. Not exactly a big money maker.
Damn you TWLO, damn you
OA thoughts on WTW? I’ve been holding shares and Jan 18 leaps since your last earnings call around $12. Looks like it’s got possible resistance around the $25 range. I’m not good at taking off winners. This was my original target. Should I be done with the calls or do you see this thing continuing higher?
I’d take off some shares sitting at 100% return.
ACIA is getting personal now!
OA, is it only me that can not see comment section at all ? Thanks.
X long $21.2
be careful with X not seeing buy signal yet but what do i know she may ramp from here
no comments yet?
nevermind, weird glitch where I wasn’t seeing any until I posted mine.
oh yeh, I just had that happen to me as well. weird.
Looking at $AKAM or debating if i can hold off for $50.
have there been changes to the site recently? why can’t I see comments discussions
I know some folks here may hold position in $SNAP. Any thoughts on holding through earnings?
You feel lucky punk?
haha. outside of the big boys, these newer tech comps seem to all blow up on earnings.
I’m hoping we run up into earnings so I can make some small bearish bets
Dumped energy longs on open which really sucks as I thought this level would hold. Still short GLD which is saving my hide. Picked up some SPY Jun 30 ITM puts as hedge.