Quiet period ends Monday. There’s going to be an assault on the #SNAPTARDS as upgrades, buy recommendations and lofty price targets lay waste to those that couldn’t quite grasp the unique opportunity this stock presented.
Again, I could care less about this company. I could care less about value. All I cared about was the inflection point that would change the minds of what value participants will be willing to pay. I fucking nailed that.
The story isn’t over. The stock has rallied 23% off the lows, and the experts are saying sell the rally and the sentiment has changed only slightly.
This is taking candy from children here. Literally. Know your opponent!
Sentiment won’t turn bullish til we take out the highs, then the #SNAPtards have to sit out a rocket launch opportunity, or chase higher.
Either way, win/win.
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I am buying a fresh AHWOA sub with my SNAP proceeds. I suggest anyone who isn’t in the club and wins on this trade do the same.
Can I buy AHWOA in Bitcoin? =D
I almost got my re-entry at $700. FML
Same here – Jeff you have made my fucking year man.
I second that. You’re a beast OA!
out of the weeklys for tomorrow ..looking to roll up … OA you are a master.
reading the stock twits it doesn’t even seem like denial yet .. lots of bears thanking the longs
this will be a game changer and as you said with all eyes on it when it rockets it could be an awesome show as the bears get lit up
No one out there can gauge sentiment, and consistently make huge gains from it, like OA.
Don’t be a dick for a tick, like me. I set my bid for SNAP calls $0.05 too low on Friday. Now I’m watching the stock ascend to infinity and beyond (extra Buzz Lightyear) without me.
you may still have a chance albeit at higher levels. this thing does pull back intra day .. just sayin’
Still looks like a lot of bear sentiment. I bought April 23 calls on Monday for .35, watched it do nothing for most of Tuesday then a little pop on Wednesday…only a meager double. Bought April 25 yesterday on the pull back for 0.35. I knew it was ready to move when my bud was a nickel under the ask and it hit immediately. Bears still shorting. Popped again today so my Monday buy is a 5 bagger and yesterday’s buy is better than a double already. Still time to catch a large ride. May buy more tomorrow on the healthcare pullback in the a.m., if there is one
Jeff Can you explain the ATR levels that you use with the SPX
I believe you stated 15 is optimal . What considered to high? Anything north of 15 .
I get low ATR and Low Vix is the key environment. If you can elaborate a little more.
Thanks
Are you on AHWOA? Easier to talk then type.
If a comment requires more than an insult and two sentences, I pass.
ok, so this event has caused me to look go to Stock Twits and get an account. It is amusing to see what people say and use as justification for their opinions, both bears and bulls. feces flingers united….at least no one there has said “leg sweep”
It’s quite something to see people judge fundamentals via intra-day ticks
I know I owe Jeff more than a sub. I hope to meet him one day to either buy him a lap dance or the most expensive alcoholic beverage served at a high end establishment.
23 being defended pretty hard by the bears.
I signed up for the annual after being a piker for a year….
No regerts
Legendary stuff Jeff, sign me up 🙂
This pain trade is fucking with my mind and desire to pull money out now, based on a potential pullback following a failed healthcare vote (sentiment is attaching a delayed/impaired tax cut to a failed healthcare vote, meaning a retest of the DT trade).
Must mean I should wait until at least mid-next-week to do anything…
you must have been listening to CNBC. i just heard the same thing and thought the same thing then i stopped.
LOL,
Step 1) Listen to CNBC
Step 2) ?
Step 3) Profits.
Funny, I don’t watch CNBC.
Reading it throughout my twitter feed. Financial people and political people have the same chorus with the healthcare act.
Shit, I am realizing I was saying this last week.
Oh God, I am the masses!
I’ve basically been employing the pain trade thesis to my investing lately (HT to OA), and it has helped considerably.
But, if I am the masses, it may be easier to just employ the George Costanza approach and just do the opposite of what I would normally do!
Next issue I’d like to resolve is timing, I’m habitually early…
From a psychological point of view, this snap trade, posts, comments, and StockTwits has kept me entertained for a week now. Thanks OA. The popcorn comes out at the IPO open level. If anything it is a great study.
Aside from my son’s stock picking contest, this has been the most enjoyable to write up.
I wouldn’t mind seeing this ramp up at a steady pace like it is now so we get more of the frog in boiling water effect w the bears.
If you look at the price action, neither side wants to take the initiative. Indecision. So we are stuck in a range that will cause both sides to declare victory at the end of the day, but leave no one really satisfied, (4+% gain for the bulls and a defense of the $23 level for da bears)
The more they fight 23, the more fun it gets above 23
I’m happy w this grind. Simmer the frogs.
OA- you’re awesome. Been following you for years and have learned a lot.
Thanks for a great trade idea.
Thanks Katrina. Great trade.
does $twtr move with $snap?
They haven’t been, no.
Now if BIDU stays green …… I’ll be happy.
got some puts haha
I’m scared as fuck
Would be pretty cool if we get some actionable stuff with the other IPO’s like AirBnb, Dropbox, Uber, etc
yolo I’m trying to be a ball. would sell and buy calls at 2pm tomorrow
I thought you had no balls?
If I was a SNAP bear I’d be shorting right around 23-23.50 in anticipation of the right shoulder needing to be formed on the obvious inverse head and shoulder setting up. I have a friend who wants to buy that dip too. It would obviously be more painful if we just slowly drift sideways to up tomorrow giving bears/non-participating bulls no opportunity to exit/enter lower, respectively. Then upwards next week. Just my 2 cents.
thank you
You’re welcome.
Come in a dream? lol
Bro, always needling me. lol. And we did catch a pretty hefty selloff after that, but why talk about old news. It was an honest attempt to contribute to the conversation.
Today’s post was honest attempt to contribute to the conversation* Anyways. Thanks again for the SNAP idea. It’s been a blast.
I kid, I kid. Love the specifics.
It’s all good man. I really forgot how enjoyable this could be. 2014 and 2015 took a huge toll on me. Thanks for looking out for us common folk.
got the message hahaha
Holy shit. lol
Well I shrunk my position a little starting with this weeks expiry with your triple OS indicator on the hourly chart registering overbought. Ultimately still believe in this idea which is why I’m holding everything else, but if we pause for a few days here It’d be great to add later paper before we move to 25 and beyond.
great call! 🙂
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IbptmSNRXLU/WNQdpxsWPBI/AAAAAAAAA_g/ipgcTkXhpAgG8QfuEKn-9GRx7iBLfeLGACLcB/s1600/snap.jpg
$SNAP. We very well may go straight to 25 through the fast zone. But there’s still room for a bear trap to inflict a lot of pain on both the late comers and the short the rip crowd so I figure I’d sell some short term expiry and prepare to reload if the opportunity presents itself.
Thanks for the chart. Was debating on holding my ITM weeklies through tomorrow, but I think the move is to close today.
got 21.70 as a target
parabolic till 330ish switching to more puts for a gap down at the open or 2pm
want to roll up some more into apr 28 .. but dont want to chase right now … just looking for a pull back to settle things down before next week
Just sold 2/3 of my SNAP 21 calls for this week for a 1,600% gain. Still have lots more longer dated paper…
very nice
@hattery
I recall OA discussing his indicator back when he started AHWOA can you point me as to where i can get the algo to set it up
Sold out of the rest at 2.05. Also sold my snap 23 yolos I bought this morning for a little more than a double.
Best weekly closeout in a long time
We’ve had a number of these intraday dips now. I guess we need to watch sentiment levels to decide how many people were allowed to board the ship and when we should jump overboard.
agreed but the bears seem to be hitting it hard
Thanks for everything OA.
Also, I’m happy to see some liftoff from both $DDD and $SINA today.
Can’t thank you enough good sir.
Excellent call OA.
I loved the bullish wedge drawn earlier & have been watching this develop from a distance.
In Silicon Valley and Wall Street valuations don’t matter. Just take a look at NFLX. The thing has defied gravity. P/E of 350. In fact the best stocks seem to be the ones that don’t make any money at all. People love to pump losers for some reason instead of putting money in quality stocks. The hell with it. You either win or you lose.