Back in November, I wrote this piece about the broadening formation in equities. That pattern gave an upside target of 5800 in the $COMPQ, which was hit about 30 minutes ago.
Sentiment has significantly improved and morale is the highest it’s been in quite some time.
Color me cautious here, but I’d start shopping for short term hedges.
I think the first few market declines will all be less than 5%. But there’s a big one coming this year. Don’t forget that.
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March puts?
Depends on what instrument. I think a pullback here won’t be very steep. Just slow and annoying.
I’d agree. Have to give time first to retail to blow their last wad BTFD. Things will get groovy after a failed retest of the high.
Volume so far today is almost 3X 10-day average with NO block trades.
Volume was really heavy with the sell-off at the open
Thanks for the spot on navigation OA
Thanks OA! Is “The Big One” going to be great buying opportunity or beginning of
bigger declines, like 2008 and 2009? All I own now are long term hold and mainly sideline
waiting meaningful pull back.
No, not that big. But 10-12% I think.
Thanks! Sorry I went dramatic. Sidelined people like me start thinking “no dip” “just buy” “this is not chasing because keep going up”,,,,, It sure feels topping. Itching my fingers.
You are sidelined? Itching to short?
Man, this might not be your sport, friendo.
No, I never short. Itching to press buy botton.
No, I am not a player. I am a granpa invester
watching games from the bench. I really enjoy
observing great plays you make. Thanks!
That’s good to know. There are some incredible long term plays developing here for the next 3-5 years.
Glad to know more about your approach out there.
Who placed the dynamite under YY? If it can bang through strong declining trendline resistance it can move up another 15.
Must be Jack Dorsey or Warren Buffett.
Jeff you are truly a master at the market!! Keep up the great work.
I appreciate that. Hoping the ongoing discussions are helping.
Bottom of the barrel buying phase is full-tilt . nearly half of the 196 stocks with 20% or more short float are up or even today according to Finviz. Jeez, even perpetual sucky stock INSY is up 12%. Basement dweller PBYI is up nearly 3%. Just reinforces the note of caution.
I agree looking around. Everything that’s been lying on the mat is now up and moving.
Most movers in the last 6 months are taking a breath.
However, the market can have a day or two to catch it’s breath w/o everyone thinking it’s going to hell tomorrow right?
Look at the sell-off in treasuries, corporate bonds, gold, utilities…
This is risk on behavior during a breather.
What are the indicators you are watching for a change in mood/sentiment/fundamentals for a downtrend?
Not suggesting a major downtrend, just a pause and maybe a period of profit-taking to trap the latecomers. I’ll leave it to a wiser OA to discern a meaningful reversal if and when. I would be concerned that the static in DC can postpone the projected infrastructure, tax reform etc which has been the impetus for the Trump rally. But then again nothing seems to derail the market’s upward movement. Never hurts to bank some profits.
I hear ya, I’m admittedly not a prescient being like OA when it comes to markets and timing.
With the inflation number out today, my guess is we can continue this trend higher. That inflation figure will help deflate bonds, dividend players, and utilities. That money is going to flow into growth, it has to. Yellen also is moving up a potential rate hike, to March(?).
Inflation with core and energy prices pushing up could become a reinforcing cycle until the Fed gets over their skis with rates (not anytime soon).
Govt could go a number of ways, but I don’t see any reason tax cuts would be pushed back, if anything, they might move up while DT still has political capital…
Infrastructure will be interesting though, that’s not a GOP issue, a DT one. GOP might delay that for later, and see if DT runs out of mojo to push it through.
We’ll see, so much in flux at the moment…
Jeff,
you think we’ll make it to month end before the pull back?
Would starting to accumulate VIX funds as the market chops around be a good way to play this ?
Last time I tried to short the market crash in late 2015 I was long VIX while gold was the defensive play that ripped up.
Or long Bitcoin
I think Bitcoins get smashed.
Every hood guy I know is buying it with all their side money fwiw.
Hood guy?
Hustlers and poker players
Oh my hell. “Hood Rich” investing. Classic.
Add it to you Beechoo indicator.
If it shines I buy it !
fine then. I’m short the market. Dare you to go long now.
Nothing like getting back to your desk after a week in Mexico and the top sheet of paper on your desk you spot FIG with a strike through it.
http://fortune.com/2017/02/15/japan-softbank-fortress-investment/
Oh well.
Inflation is real.
https://twitter.com/NAHBhome/status/831937052849664000
My 2017 theme.
BAC heading up into thin air
1400 RUT too. Your winship knows no bounds.
Dude, where’d my $TTM go?
Just closed out the last hunk of my $ATI. Parlayed a bit of the riches it into a $CVRR earnings play (just a YOLO though, playing smaller to keep my overall exposure under tight control).
been a long road with my QCOM that expires on Friday……road that one from a huge loss all the way back to finally going green…..now to see if I should ride it another day or just be happy with a mini win
Should have added with me. Big ass win here.
I wish I did, I picked up QCOM about a month ago…..I am going to try and hold for another day and go from there……closed my XLE the other day for a small win and played CVRR for tomorrows earnings…..would love a 10% pop on the price.
Why did you close XLE?
I have more….I closed my Feb17 ones….Mar17 still holding
Good.
If I read one more person playing for breakeven out there they get banned.
Yeah…..I ride my plays out for better or worse haha……like QCOM, that was $1.09 when I bought it and went all the way to 0.08….then it bounced all the way back and is now green…..
Imagine had you bought more at .08
Yes then I would be you right now haha
Any particular reason for the expectation for a slow decline rather than something fast?
I was thinking puts but maybe an iron condor is more in order.
Demand.
any thoughts on Gold here, OA?
Same bro. Go back to our daily discussions on Gold last summer. And please don’t ask me 3 times per week like you did back then.
I’ve asked you once this year, so chillax.
But you ask me like three days after I stated a public opinion. That’s fucking annoying. It’s like asking “are you sure?”
I’m always sure, in case you ever wonder.
fascinating day today…
Hey OA, with demand so high here do you see the market starting to act like it did back in late July/early August over the next few months? Broad indices go sideways, correlations drop while individual stocks continue to rip?
Low correlation environments usually stay less correlated.
Thanks OA, I’m having a lot individual stocks work for me right now and trying to decide how much cash I should start raising vs. just letting things ride.