I’ve been laid up in this stock since fall of 2013. Three buys at $36, $38 and $43. I reduced the position earlier this year, but still remains a +10% position in my LT account.
I Couldn’t find one person yesterday that was bullish heading into that call, and looks like they were right. $FSLR was a beast at the start of the year, one of few stocks trading to 52 week highs while the market traded to 52 week lows. On analyst day earlier this year, CEO wouldn’t offer guidance due to too many variables. Naturally, the stock has been in a tailspin since. Guidance is the main concern, and the near term has looked cloudy for solar. This is why I’ve told folks to wait on any buys down under $35.
I wasn’t sure how people would react to this news. Couldn’t predict whether or not you’d see buyers that believe in a 2 year story. I love the stock fundamentally, but the thought of waiting for 2 more years for a stock to produce seems daunting. Normalized earnings for $FSLR in 2019 will be $3-$4 and they have $20 per share in the bank. However, this move today represents a crossroads. You’ll likely have to endure a couple ugly quarters in the near term, but this stock still remains a valuable long term prospect to me.
I’ve rode the stock from $40’s to $70’s many times over, but am more interested in cheaper energy as a long term theme. With that said, I am buying some $FSLR here and am sticking to my LT script.
While I caught some comments in other blogs yesterday pertaining to my misfortune, this is a good opportunity to remind you all that I’m simply stating my actions and opinion. For all you know, I could be dry humping a solar panel over here in my $FSLR t-shirt. I would hope that at some point you’ve done some degree of due diligence in the process.
That said, I am only a crazy asshole you read and pester on the internet. We might not both speak in a solar tongue, so please consult your best judgement, your spouse, God, or Mark Whidmar himself before taking risk in this stock.
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Don’t do it. Friends don’t let friends anger trade.
Well said. Thx for the insight
Love the honesty and conviction.
Thinking BAC will rise like a balloon if it can get above 20.20 here
I am looking for a LT buy around $18 midway thru Trump Presidency first term
FD: Took an ass beating holding from 65 to 40. Made small coin shorting 42 to 36.
Breathtaking reversal. The shares that I own hope it sticks. The shares that I want to buy hope for more weakness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4FTkkqza7o
Truly a good company for the long run, IMHO also.
DRYS is only down 82 point in the last 2 days. That’s a lot of tissues.
Good post OA. Not often you see bloggers admit to taking a hit, others never seem to lose. As for your disclaimer, we are all wearing big boy pants out here so no one has a right to complain if they follow you into ANY trade, and if they do complain, time for them to go to their safe space.
thanks for all your work.
This is a solar company that actually makes profit, yes?
Considering how transparent Option Addict and The Fly have been, it’s unfortunate some have made negative remarks. I say thank you to both of them for having the thick skin and inclination to do this, especially since they don’t have to blog.
Unloaded my $FSLR LT position back in Feb at $64.75 following your led OA. Was looking to add back around $40 but didn’t want to load up before ER. Will start new position $25.
OA, good reminder and better post. I know the feeling of having a strong belief in a stock for the long term, only to see it struggle. For me, it’s GILD. Everyone, at least anyone who takes their book seriously, has encountered this situation. As a follow up question, what do mean by “wait on any buys down under $35”? Are you saying that it’s a buy under 35, or be cautious if it dips below 35? Question is purely to understand how to approach a stock for the long term. Thanks so much.
Once the stock traded under $35, every time I was asked about taking a position, I replied “I’d wait.”
Now that Yellen doesn’t need to lie any more, let’s see if she continues to lie.
FSLR in the long term is a no brainer. It’s a Ben Graham type investment in my opinion. It has a book value of under 0.60 and low debt. Now they’re getting lean with layoffs. I stalked it for a while and bought at $33 when it dumped after earnings last month. Not worried about Trump policy. I think solar is going with or without Trump. Only my opinion.
Beta 2.2 or I would buy it.