I bought $FB calls at the open.
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Joined Aug 2, 2009
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Bot shares of RH (28.55) and TLRD (12.85)…having tough time w/options so stick w/shares
At this point, wouldn’t TLRD be expected to test it’s all time low (11.83) and create a better entry point right below $12?
Added 12.13…room for one moar puchase
All time low was 9.95
just punted TRLD and rolled proceeds into moar RH
Right now for options I am setting more realistic price targets for the underlying and selling once those targets are hit – seems like the reversals are quicker now, also fits my style better
BIDU looks like it has to make a move soon
July paper I assume?
Me, yeah. Why’d you assume?
No reason other than most of the discussion has been centered around buying some time to let things work in this slow environment.
APPL up near high of day, while Naz is flirting with the low
OA- You still like fti?
Yep, waiting to buy this dip
SYRG still looking right
RUTl is back to levels not seen since Tuesday!
Anyone still looking at VSLR?
On the “Fly side of things,” we’re all-bear, all-the-time. I’m sure you guys see the NDX resistance line at Dec 2015, Apr 2016, June 2016, but haven’t seen much chatter about it here: it’s still rainin’ Calls. The spike in bonds has also not been mentioned.
I’m assuming that means that the technicals are still bullish in the short- and mid-term. I’m curious what would change your guys outlook from “near term pullback” to “bear territory”? Is it still NDX 4300? Thanks
Once the buy setups go away, that’s when it’ll get bearish. As long as things are setting up well and stocks are moving, I’ll keep buying.
Bet the house bullish again…buy ’em here. Top ideas: EA CELG EXAX SCTY CHK
slow bleed
*EXAS
Fslr and twtr here . Thoughts?
Buy FSLR short TWTR
traders back from lunch….
REXX on the move
was that just a leg sweep for the stops?
REXX. this is the 4s and 5s time now. TGA wll be next to move.
NFLX wedged up here pretty tight
If The Fly keeps up this end of the world bullshit, he’s going to end up selling subscriptions to Exodus on CNBC like the creepy Asian guy that sells spyware and antivirus software.
“Please buy my Algo”
I wonder if the traffic to OAs blog is the same as his…would be curious to know
277 decent support level for IBB. May try a long there
meant to add if IBB can reclaim 277
definite different look to BIDU today compared to last week or so
OA…any thoughts on $CRR
Bought LC shares
Added TRIP calls, nice chart IMO.
http://postimg.org/image/xe0hanwy3/
P&F http://postimg.org/image/s8iqfkm8b/
Pretty heavy call volume today also.
The EYES have it!
Tony changed his LT stance to neutral?
I don’t think so … he said that even if we make new highs this is still a bear market rally (irregular C wave).
Correction: Irregular B Wave
> But you are correct … He’s sticking with “Bear Market” but based on potential for the rally due to central bank intervention he HAS gone LT neutral expecting the bear to reassert itself once this 5th wave in the NYSE concludes.
Weekend Update:
We are now observing a bifurcated market between the futures driven SPX/DOW and the cash driven NYSE. Our OEW model is projecting a bear market in the SPX/DOW, which we track closely, and an ongoing bull market in the NYSE, which has received a lot of attention lately due to the strength in market breadth (NYAD). The only thing that can account for these deviations is periodic central bank intervention in the futures market. The FED can easily prop up the futures driven indices with futures purchases. But can not prop up the $24T NYSE cash market without derivatives, as it is too large to manipulate.
As a result of this market manipulation we now have two quantified counts with opposing views. The futures driven SPX/DOW, (NDX/NAZ as well), in a bear market. And the cash NYSE still in a bull market. Impossible? Actually very possible according to the OEW model.
The NYSE quantitatively counts as four waves with a potential fifth wave underway. Five waves create a bull market. The SPX/DOW counts as a completed bull market in 2015, a large wave down into 2016, and a large wave up underway. These two large waves can be counted as waves A and B of an unorthodox bear market. Unorthodox in a sense, that the SPX/DOW can potentially make all time new highs while in an ongoing bear market. Historically, this has occurred before and in EW terms is considered an irregular B wave.
Irregular B waves can make marginal new highs, or even move much higher. Typically these B waves have a price relationship to wave A in multiples of 1.382, 1.50, 1.618, or even 2.0 times wave A. As a result of this observation we are forced to go to a long term neutral opinion. With a structural bear market in most of the indices, and a bull market in the cash index, there is no telling when, and from where, the bear market will impact all indices. Until then the futures indices and cash indices remain out of sync. Only when the bear market reasserts itself will all these indices realign again. The OEW model is still working, even though the Central Banks are manipulating the markets on an unprecedented scale.
That sounds like everyone else out there…”I’m wrong, and here’s my excuse.”
+1 OA
Techinical Analysis has a logical basis and projection ability, but Elliot Wave is a crock of backward-looking, coincidental-analysis that confuses correlation with causation.
It’s also very convenient that Elliot Wave uses multiples (“1.382, 1.50, 1.618, or even 2.0”) so close together, applied against multiple waves (Major A, minor 5, etc). They basically cover every possible 2% level in the market. Hitting within 1% of an Elltiot Wave level is not a prediction, it’s a mathematical near-certainty.
Then there’s this bold prediction:
“that the SPX/DOW can potentially make all time new highs while in an ongoing bear market”
=
“I flipped a coin 10 times, it came up H-H-T-T-H-T-T-H-H-H. Because the triple H, came after a double T, that means the coin is firmly in Heads mode. Of course, even in a Heads trend, we may still get a Tails. Place your bets.”
OEW is not the same as EW … do some investigation before lumping things in the same castegory.
Well, OEW just predicted that the market could either (1) make an all-time high, or (2) go down.
Elliot Wave practitioners either make their prediction so broad/vague as to to be useless to traders or investors, or they are just plain randomly correct. Any accuracy is only there in hindsight. It is like measuring something with a pirce of string, cutting the string to fit the object being measured, and then saying “Look the string fits exactly!”
Also, I’m assuming that you are talkign about Caldaro’s Objective Elliot Wave:
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/2565/technical-trading/review-of-tony-caldaros-objective-elliott-wave-outlooks/
Anyway, I’ve said my peace so we can just agree to disagree, or you can have the last word if you want.
This is why I followed him also. He was one of many that called “bear market” In late December/January. He’ll have to change that stance soon, as we trade to new highs and beyond.
Where did he say it could A) Go up or B) Go down?
He said we are having a bear market rally that is irregular in breathe and length as a result of central bank intervention and when concluded (400-600 S&P Pts) that the indices would realign and the bear market resume.
The only way I see him amending his bear market call would be if the S&P were to exceed 2400 and the waves confirmed that we were still indeed in Primary Wave5.
Note: I’m long but slightly hedged as he has said to play what’s in front of you for some time warning that B waves can extend and stay bullish longer than expected.
“that the SPX/DOW can potentially make all time new highs while in an ongoing bear market”
NFLX calls for tomorrow look awesome
puts, NFLX puts….lol
Sold MTCH for a 20% gain. Even when OA looks like he’s losing, he’s only setting the groundwork for massive wins.
Why did you sell for 20%?
Only like a week left until they expire. Didn’t want to risk it.
Why didn’t you trade July?
Why the sarcasm?
I followed your trade on June MTCH calls.
I’m not being sarcastic. I’m quite pleased. +20% in a little over a week is pretty good. Well, to me, it is.
Oh, I bought July.
your IBC post states June,,,MTCH but i got ya boss
FCX $11 @ .04 weekly YOLO’s
Bot BAC weekly 14 calls @ .03
FL or NKE is good choice here.
Bought BIDU here.
No one is buying this dip
testing last week’s lows is the dip to buy
I was definitely positioned wrong for this week’s expiry
Any thoughts on NTAP & JNPR long here?
NTAP looks nice
I need $LGCY and $EVEP to act moar like $EMES
FSLR is made in GS top 20 buy list, then stock down today,,, giving us chance to buy this dip? or GS’s list cursed FSLR ? Interesting.
What a crap week for pypl. Trashman definitely jinx it
Literally just picked up my second July 39 call.
It’s down .25 cents from your panicky whining low two days ago
You love to lie huh? It hasn’t seen green since you tried to call bottom
Trash ideas, not people; no need to get personal
Two horrible Fridays in a row for me very scientifically assures an amazing expiry week for all!
Hoping to get some PACB down at the bottom of the wedge i.e. low $9s. or if it breaks the wedge. Buyout candidate.
God help me. Bought some long-dated TWTR calls here.
Anyone buying energy names on this OIH pullback?
Prob follows bio right? Rotation in one week followed by giant pullback the following
Any concern with this spike in the VIX? still <20, but it sure perked very fast
Looks like Blackwolf got the right call on IBB
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2016/05/24/trend-on/#comment-84503
It wil be interesting to see if it holds $264 or not (I’m sitting neutral on this). What’s next, $255 support and then no major support until $~225. Am I reading that right?
OA, do you think FSLR drifts closer to 40 before turning around?
OA- are you buying the dips in energy names you went over this week or is this the beginning of a longer pullback. Looking at SN
GES acted well today.
Does anyone know/hear any news why FB drop 12%ish AH ( google finance) ??
I think its because you’re using google finance.
I use Fidelity trading system, still check all other finviz, yahoo, google,,, etc. Just thought whaaaaaat ?? Seems system error?
Or I might be able to pick up that low? Sorry to bother.
You write like shit.
I wish. Would back up the truck.
Seems someone picked up 1.18k shares at 102.55 AH. What a cooked deal.
Someone please tell me they are holding $LNKD options for this week???
Several in the room are. I had a set that expired Friday, lmao.
Yep, nice way to wake up on a monday on vacation. Funny thing is the stock acted like ass so I held them, if it had rallied significantly I prob would have sold….
Congrats
Dude in one of my trading rooms bought 10 calls on friday for this weeks expiration at cost of $150 worth $48,000 today. lol
I had 7 contracts at 3.30 avg, was worth 800 bucks on friday, down 1500 in them, sold at $59. Pure fucking luck.
This happened to me in 2008 when MSFT bid for YHOO. I had taken YHOO calls into earnings and they had missed, calls where worthless. Msft bid 30 for them on monday, made 110k.
You trade long enough you see it all….
good stuff
ouch!
Solar continuing to get beaten up. Sector rotation soon?
Not unitl it sets-up.
Wow, Andrew left at it again
)puff puff pass( mohr POT pahleze
2085 $SPX bounce sticks?
Would love POT back in the 16s. Just missed it at 16 but the setup still looks good even here.
Bought FSLR July 50s. Daily volume is about 10x the open interest.
OA – Did you buy any bitcoins? They’ve been a monster lately.
I did, back when I posted that I bought some.
Put them in the shelter next to the canned goods and ammo.
OA.. how about a new blog entry? My fingers ache from scrolling down.
OA
casinos ready for breakout?