This is the second overbought signal that crude oil has generated this year. If you are looking for an ETF to use to bet against energy stocks, I prefer the setup in $XOP…maybe $OIH.
It’s worth noting that the Nasdaq is roughly a day or two away from generating an oversold signal. This would be the first legit signal since late 2012.
OA
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Last day to trade June /CL contract is Friday.
Wish I could have located some $MGT to borrow yesterday.
in response to your prior blog….the sentiment here is strange no? Its not fear…..or real bearishness, but he push back you are getting for a bullish thesis is different.
The sentiment here is incredible. Could you elaborate a little more? I’m intrigued.
Sure….I follow this blog allot for a sentiment read, from the comment section. I am a huge fan of your work, right or wrong. Typically there is conviction either way Bull or Bear. Over the past month there has been a shift…comments dropping in volume, def a bearish tone, but not very convicted…..any bull thesis gets slapped around or picked apart…but there is no real bearish conviction…just a not bullish one. It feels like the sentiment is a yearning for fear. The more bullish you get …the more quiet this page gets. May guess is this is very Bullish….but its a odd fell. Hope this makes sense
Makes total sense. I have so much to say on that, but not sure where to begin. The bullish argument is getting quieter, but the loudest remarks are just that…its not bullish out here.
It is almost like longs are staying long but hoping to get killed
That coupled w/ GS and others saying to sell and go to cash… does seem fishy.
GS call was Overweight Cash….which is a 3% allocation from a 2% allocation, their S&P target is still 2150.
It seems like hope and fear. By far, the bears are the loudest, but don’t seem to be pushing the tape. However, the bulls seem to lack conviction as well. It seems like the market is ready for a big move, but the direction is uncertain.
I think the global June events (Brexit, greece bonds) will set the tone and we’ll probably muddle aluntil then. If things go “as expected,” the market may take-off. Any downside surprise (GB or Greece leng EU) will be the trigger the bears are waitng for and will likely be the last time the S&P sees 2000 for some time
XOP is more extended than OIH-thus a better short? I am reading you correctly? thanks J.
I prefer the instruments and weighting, honestly. However, as I’ve said before, the profile in oil here favors a trend. That’s exactly what oil is doing here. The higher it goes, the more open the profile is above.
OA, am I missing something? I thought crude oil and market move same direction. If crude is overbought, the market is about to get lower ?? Please correct me. Thanks.
Here’s an idea…see that last dip oil made in March off the same signal? I’d check the SPY at that time and see what happened.
OA – take the 4% hickey on SHAK?
Asking if I am still holding calls?
Big buyer of CAKE puts…MAY 50’s and July 45’s
Yes
Yeah, I bought calls. Blog post yesterday. Thanks
Curious when was the last time you took a poll.
Tuesday. 58% bullish
crude and equities decoupled–could short former, buy latter
Methinks VRX is going to cap any further move in biotech — interestingly many new positions were started down here according to last nights filings.
Protection is cheap with 14 handle on the VIX….
Good spot to short IYR. 77.75….short AAPL above 95.5
Love the use of the Market Forecast indicator
Got out of $ANGI for slightly better than a scratch. Terribly managed trade.
$NMBL staying very resilient the last 2 days if anyone is interested in another truly lousy stock. I’m in June’s already.
Looking at another crack at the $W short here. Right up against the underside of that former trend support. Trying to hold out for $50 to give that oil short a try as I mentioned last night.