It’s always good to have a standout stock to use at a time like this, to help lead a path. Especially coming off the back of Kostin’s capitulation earlier today:
Slower economic growth in the US and China and a lower oil price than we previously assumed translate into a reduced profit forecast and a lower trajectory for US stocks. Our revised top-down 2015 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $109 (from $114) represents a 3% year/year decline. Our new 2016 EPS estimate of $120 (from $126) reflects annual growth of 10%. We expect S&P 500 will rise by 6% to our lowered year-end target of 2000. We expect S&P 500 will climb by 5% to 2100 in 2016. Focus on stocks with high US sales, firms returning cash to shareholders, and high quality stocks.
When in doubt, I always fall back on Goldman Sachs.
Goldman is one of few to “sweep the leg” and move back up into its range, 1998 style.
This one is a great proxy here, all things considered, heading into the remainder of the week. Hat tip @Chgo_Trader
OA
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I did notice that Goldman took down their estimates for the S&P today. Ironic if this is the bottom.
David Kostin. I got a little wood when he called out the 1998 analogue with me at the end of August. Then he redacted it today. Should have waited a week to be totally sure.
GS / not the stock / is more then half the time a precise contrarian misleading indicator
Which helps my cause.
hi bro . they cut sp from 2100 to 2000. which still sound cotrarian and bullish ( will they short the market ? ) 3 months is a lot of time and we may end up there by end of 2015 who knows what lies in between
exactly precise… half the time
hi eddie . / very / usually the rise targets for x when they get need sell x , x go down ; and viceversa
*they
Ah got it.. thx for clarification
Bloomberg reported that SP 500 short interest hit a 3 year high today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-29/short-sellers-are-having-a-field-day
OA, what’s the oversold indicator you normally use?
$NYMO
Thanks you, Sir.
Glad I go out of my longs this morning – geez! That said, I am looking forward to initiating new ones, just not now.
LABU getting smoked. Luckily, I left plenty of room to average down.
I did too.
ADDED TO $LABU $15.45
Stop is at $15.50 you son of a .. chicken
More like “pussy”…lol.
I held $BIS overnight. Sold it today, so now I am committed. This thing moves too much.
Jeff – I brought up SCMP as an idea and you mentioned that you don’t like catching those knives down. Just curious what makes you interested in LABU (ie XBI) here in that context?
Index to stock is the main difference I guess.
gotcha…just less risk?
I notice that individual stocks are likely to pause more than an index or market. That’s why I usually wait after a volatile move, or search for a candidate with better relative strength.
What do you mean by ..left plenty of room to average down?
$?
cash to deply on a II , III , IV.. lower price entry ..
deploy
I always view averaging down as a way to justify a bad entry. Guess it depends on one’s time frame.
definitely , me too . but sometimes it gives you a better exit , may be in the green . works well when 1′ entry is minor and the other(s) bigger
haha. yeah, there’s about $15 to average down. good lord this shit moves so fast
i got in yesterdat and out today $nugt , i feel lucky and I swear i will never touch 3x etf again , they are so too much tailored against the buyer.
III time I swear and i really don’t like and don’t want to touch these instruments anymore.. unless things get really broken..which i think is not happening .
Well looks like no movement yet in the USD/JPY
Yep, said that at the open. This isn’t the day. Thursday seems about right.
OA – is this small divergence anythign significant on your radar? That IBB is slightly outperforming overall market today?
Day isn’t over.
yup, spoke too soon. now its leading to the down.
Looks like SPX 1725-50 with a few burps along way
Well, i got my fill in $CYBR. Feeling just a little bit twitcy, which I think is a good thing. Saving the rest for later. Have a ‘sweep the leg’ sell order open for my $TZA.
Check out the oversold reading on BLOX and IL. I’ve been buying ZIXI and will buy FEYE if market turns up on Thursday.
You guys still think the bottom is in on biotech?
Not following SPY to new lows on the day.
Thanks. I’m with you on this, and $IBB didn’t break $284-285 support.
Looks to me that the big guys are distributing their Bio shares to those who are overanxious to buy a bottom.