We’ve spent a lot of time on this over the last year plus, but here are some charts to compare against when trying to determine if this market ever finds an enthusiastic phase to the upside or not.
I’ve been running this analogue since 2012.
$SPX
1998-00 vs 2014-2016
$GC_F
$CL_F
Waiting on a graph on the dollar to kick this off. Will post shortly.
For those that were in the trenches back then, how does the environment compare? I’ve read Fly’s experiences, what did you notice about that market environment?
Thoughts?
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I was managing a tech fund in SF 1998-2000…now is nothing like that. The bubble affected action in most stocks and the level of retail involved completely different.
Take 97…energy stocks got torn up…wasn’t the action heading into 98 mostly selective? Still many booms/busts like we see here?
Agree wholeheartedly on retail.
damn … what happened to BLUE…15% move in both directions in a day
i vaguely remember that it was all about tech and chasing the future. The rams/titans super bowl was nothing but .com tv commercials.
so Yahoo/Microsoft/Cisco/Intel/Qcom then is now Apple/Google/Facebook/Netflix
Or the biotechs.
Internet was the future…extending and improving the quality of life seems to be the present/future bubble.
Returns since the 09 lows for biotechs are already on par with the total returns for tech stocks through the 2000 top. Same with p/e ratios for XBI / IBB.
Take a close look at the IBB and compare it with 1987. Lots of similarities. Very possible that we’re in October 1987 with the bios. I regret avoiding that space for the past few years but I suspect I won’t regret it soon.
Not even trying to say your analogue is wrong, but I’d like to at least see the 2000-2010 level tested first.
I think today was the equivalent of 06/26/15. 06/26/15 was also a Friday. Same pattern on the $VIX and /ES. The $VIX actually close lower today!
I think bulls are still a little too comfortable here. The EOD algo rallies certainly don’t help washout weak Bulls.
Monday sets up for a nasty gap down, morning bounce attempt, then ultimately a lower close.
Charts:
$VIX – http://tos.mx/k7U9pD
/ES – http://tos.mx/RNTVIz
Wait, why did you post those?
I was referring to my post above saying that today is arguably same price action at 06/26/15. Compare today to then on the charts.
Oh, dude…we were going much larger scale here.
Nice. You make a strong argument. History rhymes right? 🙂
I’m more along the lines of patterns repeating. The similarities are striking, and I think its noteworthy.
Hopped back into AAPL today. Thinking that if this market does rally from here it will do so on the back of AAPL. Even if it turns lower I think we see a substantial ($10?) rally from here first.
Nice call!
Ahhh the wizard is back. Poof!
More and more I feel like I’m at the roullette table. And if I read one more “board authorizes such and such share repurchase” headline I’m gonna barf.