We laid out a plan last night in After Hours with Option Addict that never seemed to materialize today. If this move holds, specifically in the Russell, I think the volatility might be here to stay for some time.
I haven’t done much in the last two weeks aside from buying shares of $WING and calls on $SPLK that I sold this morning for a loss. I kicked out a few stock positions this morning to raise cash as well.
If this is the norm for the near term, I’m going back to day trading, and going to work my way down to fewer positions trying to play both sides of this tape.
If we are a ways from the bottom, I am watching $NFLX as a short here based on structure and still like $FB or $GOOGL as a long.
OA
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I suppose it makes sense to play both sides of the market in a high dispersion environment. Personally I’ve found the bearish side to be much easier this year than in the past 3, even excluding the past couple of weeks.
This year easier than last year? Interesting.
Anecdotal of course, but this year rising indices haven’t been punishing my hedges. A lot more weak stocks are staying weak.
The WING long inspired me to look around and I went with FOGO instead @22.4.
$WING is holding up nicely
a 1 day slice thru of the 200ma and recovery….is it going to be that easy? That’s an enormous tail on the SPX if we hold this.
Still holding z?
Yeah, I have calls.
Trying a /CL long from $52. Risking 1 to make 4 on a 50% retrace of this down move.
This reversal is impressive
July VXX puts
Straight TNA stock for a couple of days, stop below $86.
OA – scrubby biotech is showing the largest amount of interest on the Ouija today (no surprise), but I noticed Yoshii’s NDLS appeared, and is looking kind of double bottomish… Does it appeal to you at all in these conditions?
UB – I stare at $NDLS almost every day. Still haven’t quite pulled the trigger. I know that there’s a great buy in there somewhere though. They got crushed last quarter for missing earnings by a penny, with sluggish same stores, but they were just installing a marketing plan that wasn’t fully underway. Also shouldn’t be too affected by international events or any crazy moves in the dollar or interest rates since they are all within our borders. My Three Horsemen of Restaurant Glory are $NDLS, $LOCO, and $HABT. They all look great to me, but I am trying not to rush into anything right now, need to scrape some proceeds from a few dead positions before I can take on any more degenerate names like that.
Also, friendly reminder that we are in the worst months for $SBUX seasonality. Since you guided me out of a bad set of $SBUX puts into their best months, I figured I owed a reminder when the bad months finally arrived.
TJ – I’m going to give that SBUX a hard looking over (extra homo). Thanks for the reminder.
LOL.
I like set-ups like this that are easy to manage. $CMG looks similar.
TJ & OA – thanks for the feedback, gents!
OA – thoughts on PBYI?
No rush on that one. Let the quality names pop first. IBB needs to hold here as well.
tnx. was thinking a possible reflex move back to $150. naturally, we will need the market to firm up
Yeah, for that I like it.
Also, DSKY… haha.. j/k
I think the next buy in these is at least 2-3 weeks away. They need to consolidate these moves first.
What an unbelievable rally? Think the low is in? Lol. We’re looking at a 100 point reversal in 1 day. Glad to catch even a fraction of it.
i guess it really was this easy. wow.
Seeing continued strength in WMT, my largest holding. I mentioned this yesterday that this is one to keep an eye on as an indicator of the overall market as it rallied 30-40% after the market peaks in 2000 and 2007 after very deep oversold readings.
I don’t think we’re in a similar situation, but worth watching.
I’m also holding some BIS from around $28.2. Trying for a drop in that sector based on crazy valuations….similar to IWM / TZA last year.
Fun market to trade in the short term but if you’re a bear and are looking for an aggressive longer term trade you want to see the NQ up around the 4460-4470 area.
Even with this crazy candle day, I’m still trading this market every day or every other day, and sticking to market-wide stuff (TNA/TZA/VXX.)
I would recommend going to view the AHWOA recording tonight. We did a follow up on my 1998-2000/2014-2016 market analogue.
That was the best stop run I’ve ever seen. They took out some old lows by a few points and then ripped it all the way back in a few hours. Pretty awesome actually. I have visions of October 2014’s v-shape rally running through my head. They may not let up on this rally.
from what I see, the last time $spy did a 1% drop and reversal day was 10/16/14,and that was the beginning
I am manually managing my stops for just this reason, QCI. Got burned by a couple of pennies too many times. It’s a pain in the ass in a tape like this because I have to be checking things more often than i want, but if that’s what it takes to stay ahead of the computers so be it.
Yeah tight stops. I’m not holding anything overnight unless I’m actively trading it after hours.
How about that new avatar Jeff? Maybe that could turn this market