Question: What’s the pain trade for tomorrow?
The initial rise from the Fed was fast and the follow through left buyers at some fairly elevated prices. According to breadth stats today, most of the heavy selling pressure was done near the lows of the day, which we’re trying to take down as we speak.
The ES_F is at 2059, and as discussed in my last post is a fairly important number. The TF_F has just touched down on its Pre-Fed print and the YM_F is approaching. The NQ_F is trading a slight distance underneath.
Again, what’s the trade that hurts the most participants tomorrow?
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moar selling
Gap down and rip higher. Everyone seems to be pretty bearish now. Gap confirms bias, selling continues, and then reverses. A lot of put buyers today.
Gap up of course
Agree. Screw everyone that jumped shit at today’s lows.
“jumped ship” lol
It worked both ways, lol.
Crude oil was up on bearish data which is normally a good thing, but today had some geopolitical noise. I wouldn’t chase oil up here, no way no how. In fact, I like the airlines here (took a shot on VA).
crude will never ever go down again
Headfake higher to get people in and a strong selloff on Friday.
4326 support on the NQ. Buyers will show up but for how long?
OA, you don’t like JDST here?
I do.
gotcha. misread your prior comment. i have about 3/4 my full lot filled here
Gap Up till 1st hour ..Bulls in .. flush the put Buyers .. then down like today..kill the bulls.
If I knew I wouldn’t tell. But I don’t.
to be honest, i think the pain trade is a gap down -400 day on the DOW. how would it not be? lol
agree. seem like most folks are just calling this week a typical pullback. pain trade would be to go beyond “typical”
dam, well 2059 didn’t hold for long. 12 more minutes to fight! cmon
Bought the close aggressively ; watch to see how the foreign markets react and our futures in the morning .
Banks are worrisome .
wow. you got calls? best of luck. looks ugly out there for the bulls, tho
Pain trade is selling and more selling then more selling
The pain trade is slow but steady selling hour after hour. With no clear bottom its hard to buy in, others will panic, and others will hear from the margin clerk.
Conspiracy to keep TWTR under $50.
Probably a narrow range day since we just went from resistance to support in a single day
Maybe a bounce tomorrow. However, I expect speed to pick up exponentially soon.
Stoned on the beach. Not sure if that answers your question or not.
Puts outnumbered calls today so odd as this may sound the max pain trade is a massive up day.
Gap higher trapping shorts in the hole, short squeeze, dip buyers at this time are loading up the truck but then it falls apart again drifting lower trapping dip buyers. More or less a shake the tree from both ends type inside day, a sit on hands kind of day.
Did some digging on potential bio shorts. I came up with 9 potentials, and 3 that looked best. Looking for companies with no earnings, and good volume pockets below, with reasonable(-ish) implied volatility. My three favorites were:
$ARRY
$HALO
$TSRO.
$HALO looks good on volume pocket, $TSRO has no revenues which is wonderful, and $ARRY has a great 1 year volume pocket even with a crappy 5 yr volume pocket. Other potential names of interest were:
$CRMD
$DVAX
$EXAS
$MDVN
$PRTA
$SRNE
There’s your pain trader’s dam this sux
Gap down, buyers jump in, and then someone throws a toaster in the pool
Took advantage of the oil strength to sell off all but one of my oil positions I had taken after the last downturn (EMES, SLCA, BAS) for a nice profit
Tough sledding out there… shouldn’t the trolls be out in force by now?
Trolls getting slaughtered as well
Just need biotech and healthcare to kick in here and away we go.
Took a shot short $HALO from 13.35. You can only talk about something so much before it’s time to jump in and try to swim.
Jdst – itching to buy. Anyone feel strongly?
I would find an easier sector if i were you – too many factors at play that seem to be cancelling each other out for the moment – of course, at this time, what is an easier sector….
xlv and ibb outperforming. Bears gonna get teeth kicked in very soon.
Added to YY long just before the close.