We’ll, at least we now know what Gold prices have been setting up to do.
I’ve been nibbling around trying to position myself for this next leg down in Gold and Miners. Over the last two weeks we’ve talked about the possibility of a move starting overnight, catching people off guard and not in a position to get out in front of it. Funny to see that was the way it played out.
Earlier this week, a lot of folks reentered the JDST for what was a massive move on Friday. As posted in my comments, I managed to catch a short in GC Wednesday night, which was the single biggest move I’ve ever caught in the futures market.
This Swiss vote should provide momentum to this move, and should propel prices to our eventual targets. I figured I’d try to open another short when futures open, and then discuss possible instruments to play when the market opens tomorrow. We might even take this down to picking some actual mining stocks to short as opposed to JDST or GLD.
If you have any mining companies that stand out as possible short candidates, post them in the comments. We’ll do a top down analysis in After Hours with Option Addict tomorrow.
OA
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Sir, what are those eventual targets?
$900 gold.
Thanks again for the idea, Jeff. JDST!
Being fully loaded JDST weds was a wonderful feeling Friday..the short .gold futures trade could make your year from Friday,well played Jeff
Not exactly, Jeff bought $JDST and sold for a loss on Tuesday before the big move actually occurred. Not well played at all. He had the right idea though.
I posted my exit on the blog. Still caught the move, which I’ll accept the “well played” comment on.
Hugh Jass,,,I was talking about me fully loaded jdst Jeff,,made his win via futures,,if youre in his group you would know his thesis,,,so lighten up on the bash
Sorry, didn’t mean to get your panties in a bunch gatorsun. Was just pointing out that facts, if you re-read your post it makes it sound like OA caught the entire move in JDST which he did not. It’s ok to mention missed moves not just when someone gets the move right. As far as “lightening up” you may want to reduce your grip on OAs cock there fanboy. Carry on.
fuck off asshole…not in the mood to banter with a crass jerk …betcha you would not be so brave face to face with me
Sorry didn’t mean to offend you, resume watching Brokeback Mountain or whatever you are up to.
The post states I caught the move in GC, no?
OA, still like and still holding FEYE here?? Some good news has to move this one at some point I would think. Thanks in advance.
If it firms up in the morning, yes.
Was that a response to Hugh Jass’ comment?
lol
Ha ha! Purdy!!
Hah! At my age it’s big IF it firms up.
Interesting to see how gold perma bulls have characterized the Swiss referendum as not that important, but it now shows how all fiat currencies will fail ultimately, just not today. The cost of gold production keeps getting cited as a floor as well. I am the son of a Louisiana petroleum engineer and I can guarantee that production costs can go lower and this will be because of bankruptcy, closures and layoffs. 1983 – 1988 was painful for my family, and then 1995 – 1998. Companies cannot control the cost if the commodities they produce – only their costs of production, which they will
it was never going to pass and it isn’t important
interesting perspective on the costs of production, thanks for sharing.
Gold down $20 already damn Future trade looking right
Any miner of any commodity sounds about right. Total commodity bust in real time.
RGLD
It would seem there were more people betting that the Swiss referendum would pass than we were led to believe
nobody was. the swiss were NEVER goinh to pass it
Then why keep pounding the long?
Because his gag reflex hasn’t kicked in yet
not buying gold because of some swiss fantasy. your small caps are going debased
Debased at all time highs bruh.
The Swiss vote set up the bear flag. Longs stopped selling because there was a ‘chance’ that it would pass, and many firms were claiming it could be a game changer. Shorts had to reduce exposure for a possible binary upside event. Analysts at prominent firms were claiming any downside was priced in and advising clients to leverage long. Even with the known failure, the shock will be sudden as selling resumes in earnest before the EOY.
Good analysis – thanks!
commodities will take down the ENTIRE market.
Wanna puke for closing the JDST position for a loss last week…
I started sweating thinking that an adverse move would kill people holding that piece of shit instrument. I couldn’t sleep over that.
Next time, can you comment to that effect in the TA “comment” section. Would have helped me manage my position.
Sorry, I spoke on it for quite a bit…but probably could have done more.
I took a terrible entry at 25.90. The next day was the gap down in gold followed by the massive rally. I decided to manage risk with the lower highs on gold. That would have translated to a ~50% loss had it broken the triangle to the upside. Luckily, it looks as though it will work out. But I’ve learned my lesson to take better entries instead of chasing.
Short oil service and drillers for the win.
Jeff still holding $FMSA?
Ha, yep. Forgot a stop on that one before I took off. You?
No, but I would be interested to know what you will do with the trade going forward.
Either sell calls to pay down my mishap, or just cut the position.
Did you short GC again tonight?
no
Me? Yes, just entered at 1148 with a 5 point stop.
Thanks
Is there a technical reason for setting the stop there, or just risk management?
Seems tight for an overnight futures trade.
Yeah, the balance being built here serves as its own risk management profile.
gold is now green. LOL at all you contrary indicators. SWISS VOTE+MEANINGLESS
gap to 1900 will get filled
Ah, gold. The only instrument where the more you’re down, the more you’re right.
+1 LOL
Ha ha! I’m +1ing as well.
Time for a big payoff for all the hard work, my man.
Did you end up getting in, my friend?
JDST big on Wednesday, but was late to the get GLD puts on Friday due to a botched trade. Let’s see where it takes us.
Just wanted to thank you autumnalcity for your post back on October 23 talking about the gold trade and your success with it. That helped me focus a little bit more on gold.
Short NQ 4328.
The Chief never sleeps….
I thought my JDST Dec 26’s we’re a silly gamble when I got them. Now I’ll admit I’m feeling pretty damn good about it.
Really want to get in on this GC action but can;t pull the trigger here.
Hardest part of trading is knowing when not to trade – I still haven’t learned that lesson.
BHP
Retailers may get taken down on disappointing sales Black Friday.
How about SLW down to 15s?
This is a sweet move in gold. Or at least my timing is finally sweet. Its the little things. that said, a little worried my retail and bit of copper is about to be pole-axed.
Satisfied for the time being that I didn’t close my JDST position last week. It was a small one, but a monster performer so far. I appreciate the heads-up. Exiting my oil stocks early Friday also looks to be the good move. I also got short large and small cap equities via puts mid-day Friday, right when the first lower high completed. I’m a bit more skittish on that position (though it’s basically a hedge for my overall exposure), but so far looking good. These things have a way of reversing from Sunday evening to Monday morning. Then again, I have a history of getting into what would be super huge positions on the short side that I close out for small gains instead of monster gains. So goes trading in the markets.
Jeff and his blog readers — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8
This move in crude has me on edge. Production will have to be cut if we hold losses, which means job cuts, which hurts the economy. It could also cause a mess in the junk bond world. I’d have preferred crude to stay above $75.
Ouch. Looks like OA got stop poured out of the GC short trade overnight.
Why ouch? I risked like five ticks.
Looks like not being in gold over the weekend may not have been such a bad thing
London trading opening with good demand, what will NY open do?
huge buying in gold & silver overnight
this will be interesting … a rejected low on telegraphed obvious negative news … a ripping rally could emerge out of this
exactly. that was not newsworthy
Perfect short set up still taking place on the lower time frame in the NQ since last night.
Interestingly everything that has been getting hit the hardest is rallying off lows Gold Copper Oil Yen Euro. Inversely the market has been going up, that’s about to change today.
Lay up
Market will rally this morning as buyers step in aggressively. Wash, rinse, repeat. Smart money will buy the weakness. Huge buying in commodities overnight. Awesome.
Everyone who jumped on the short gold bandwagon last night got smoked
still up a pretty 30% in JDST.
Yes that was a nice trade…getting short last night though as gold tanked was a chase play..
well, not anymore. lol barely up 15.
Looking for gold to consolidate around 1185 for a few days and then break one way or the other – I was surprised at the snapback rally overnight – suspect new shorts had their stops triggered and will make further activity off the Swiss referendum non-existent (as is really was a non-event as pointed out here by asdf)
I am betting that it breaks down, fwiw.
Retest of 1200, that was quick – we definitely have the battleground marked….
JDST tanking…lol
covered 1/2 NQ 4312…. +16
Letting the rest run.
out last 4280 + 48!! Couldn’t resist. On FIRE
well done!
Have to take a break…that as epic.
Wow, well done Chief!
+1 Chief. Take the morning off…or have a sandwich.
OA: Does Yelp still have a chance or dump it?
Tried to mess with a JDST call, but IV is waayy outta bounds. Got into SCTY and FEYE monthlies this morning.