This weeks roadmap started with a gap down. No problem, that I can handle. We talked about our short-term target to the upside in the $RUT (1130) which is still valid based on a responsive buyer at the open. I bet we’ll get this started in the form of a gap and go tomorrow.
At that point, we’ll wait for a dip to buy. Likely down at 1120.
Structurally, the Russell has had a positive divergence quality since Thursday. This includes today, which we’ll illustrate after the bell. Breadth has been great today also.
To really solidify this whole bottoming process, I’d like to see a day where high beta/momentum/growth stocks all lead the market. In other words, on a day where the market itself is neutral, we need a day where these stocks are all positive. A day where they all trade +2% or better. This will be the final signal of a rotation we need in order to accelerate up.
What’s your top pick today? I caught a mean reversal in MBLY today. Stalking ATHM, BITA and ARWR.
OA
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IWM 1-2-3 today?
2’s probably just finishing. 😀
Think we might need more time on LULU to get that move to 50 boss. I’d like to see it closer to 45 to roll out.
Once we get confirmation of this melt up, gun to your head- SPLK, YELP, DATA, or FEYE.
Appreciate all the insight!
If I had to choose today? FEYE.
Was looking strongly at AEGR this AM but didn’t fire. D’oh!
I’m liking your AKAM idea as a low beta play to slow down my hyperactive portfolio. Looks like it did the false breakdown fake thing this morning, and the semis (SMH) did not give a fuck about the gap down this morning
Great idea.
Was your idea, but thanks
CLDX
OA, does CRTO still look good to you?
Looks fine. Still churning.
Hi OA,
How do you feel about NFLX here in the short term?
Thnx!
I liked $240 as a buy point. Not looking bad here intraday.
One could try a $SWFT long here if it holds over 21. No?
I still like the look of LOCO but it isn’t doing much lately. I own October calls.
ZU!
SFS worth a look.
how low will $SINA go???
All the way down to your stop.
guess my stop is 0
OA,
When you say, breath has been good today, is that because the $SPX made new lows, but not so for the McClellan Oscillator .. hence divergence?
I watch the TICK intraday, as well as price action in about 50 stocks. Making sure the right stuff leads, and that buying is in the right names (risk).
Thanks!
Jeff, any concern with the VXN here?
Nope, you?
Little bit, along with FXI, and EEM
Look at monthly charts on FXI and EEM.
VXN looks like its giving it up now, and thanks was looking at the weekly, you think the action is just a backtest regarding FXI/EEM
Take a look at the Shanghai to get a glimpse of China…
markets looking a little sketchy here
gun to the head….NFLX, AMZN, or GOOGL position intiated today, which one?
TSLA
*bang*
😉
all the choices are correct it seems. all 4 moving in lock step up right now.
I sold some of my GPRO and wish I hadn’t. Unbelievable momentum. Everything else is a loser.
UGAZ
Although I took 1/3 off. medium term I think /NG gets to $4.50
The Irrelevant investor has a column that blows away standard thinking on ‘death cross’ or golden cross’. The Russell recently had a ‘death cross’, but it turns out the death cross is more often bullish than bearish in the last dozen years or so.
By a mile. I know its failed at least on the last 4 signals.
Shorts are getting NO satisfaction today. Will be easily shaken in days to come.
Dull knife to head, SPLK?
Yep.
Any thoughts on PCLN oct options play
None, sorry.
long NQ 4041
Day trade, or swing?
daytrade, looked like some nice buying but it fizzled out
Any concern on ZU giving up earlier strong move?
I’m not in it, but my target was $42. I’d be concerned, yes.
sorry…thought was was one of yours
Yep, used to be.
Gun to head: Doug Kass or Pamela Anderson?
For drinks? Kass. Anything else, Pam.
Pam is old. Kate is the new Pam
I can dig old.
Doug is older, if I’m not mistaken…
ok, how about for needle sharing?
GLUU on this pullback
The TRTC train continues to blast higher. Up nearly 100% in three days. Another pot stock, MCIG, had a bottom candle on huge volume a few days ago. Might be next?
AVAV looks like a good entry here
Out NQ -1
Kass back to net short!! love it
How low can QIHU go? Are you interested at all? Any idea what’s going on?
Neg-a-teev. No interest whatsoever.
Jeff, what’s your take on $LULU here as it continues to digest the post earnings gap up? Thanks.
Bullish, target $50.
Jeff can you send me the Paypal link to my email for the trading addicts sub. Haven’t been around I. Awhile. Life got in the way but back now. Love that ARWR play. Wanted to get your thoughts on XNET?
welcome back Danny, we were wondering what happened to you!
Good to be back!
Blew the account up?
Yes! Big time
But can’t put a price on life lessons! Gotta learn the hard way
I blew my shit up too
Any concern about YELP’s pull back today after starting out strong?
I’ll probably sleep tonight.
MBLY caught it good
OA, I was just thinking that the move that hurts the most shorts is a gap over 1130 and go. I doubt we get it tomorrow, but soon, possible. I think once the man behind the curtain is satisfied with the number of shorts engaged that this is what he will do.
Sometimes I feel like OA knows the man behind the curtain. Or at the very least has met him a few times…
OA, where do you plan to enter ARWR? What are you looking for?
When I feel its ready to rally.
Wow, the Euro is taking a serious beating.
Hope everyone got their HIMX on . And for your next winner I’d start nibbling on some SUPN .
Good trading Jeffonians .
WFM! about time.
What would you think about selling put spreads on WB here just as far as the price action goes? It strikes me as a good opportunity but I haven’t sold spreads before and not sure if I want to just yet.
Reason to sell put spreads:
1)Falling wedges tend to creep along slowly before they get going.
2)Stocks that have already made a large move tend to take longer to develop.
3)It has plenty of support and price action is still constructive so there is still a clear bullish bias, but one that will take TIME, and it may consolidate downwards a bit longer BEFORE it starts to get going.
4)Buying options is less ideal to do if the idea will take a lot of time.
5)Vix while still under 20 is getting up there.
6)implied volatility of WB has seen cheaper days.
Based on the price action, I’m concerned about WB. If it were bullish, it should not be below $20.
Thanks. Yeah after looking at volume profile I see what you are saying. Plus no longer a higher low.
I suppose there also is a fine line between not being bullish enough to buy calls but still enough to sell puts…. and not bullish at all and avoiding the trade altogether. I struggle with the idea of when to sell spreads or what an ideal setup to sell a put spread would look like.
I would think ideally if you are bullish on price you almost always want to buy calls unless IV is just jacked up beyond reason or choppy environment where breakouts just aren’t sticking. Maybe bullish but upside is limited and/or downside is unlikely and IV is high (rangebound stock near support with above average IV?).