After getting ape raped in March/April, for mistakes made on my own analysis, we’ve been calling the turns in growth stocks with precision.
- We watched these stocks hit enthusiasm in January/February…
- We watched these stocks hit panic in March/April…
- We watched these stocks go through their final discouragement phase in May…
- We watched as they climbed the Wall of Worry through June…
- We watched as they fell through Aversion in July…
- and are watching as they go through denial, right here, right now.
This next move is the very last move that matters. For the remainder of the year, if not more. Take a chart like YELP, which correlates to most growth stocks, and see if you can compare and contrast where we are in the sentiment cycle.
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I hope you are right.
As does my posterity.
But you should remember your past
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=QQQ&a=08&b=1&c=2000&d=11&e=15&f=2000&g=d
I’ve been having dreams of this…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=QQQ&a=07&b=1&c=1998&d=11&e=15&f=1999&g=d
get a room you two 🙂
Hahahahahaha. Right on!!!!!!!
WHY WON’T BLUESTAR TAKE MY CALLS RIGHT NOW???
LOL if we dont get an answer I won’t be able to sleep tonight.
Hahahahaha. He fell into a volcano
with so much going on in the world now. how about creating some panic this week, then shoot for the moon?
It has to follow a certain template, or it doesn’t happen at all. Panic here is bad.
OA – Anyone that denies we are in Denial is a denier… there’s no way out of this. You are RIGHT!!!
Moments like right now is how idiots become either new millionaires or bankrupt and blowing their brains out after crying thru consumption of a fifth of vodka.
Place your bets.
Fuck Yeah!
Jeff
Don’t take this the wrong way but there’s a very triumphant tone to all your posts recently. I know we’ve had a string of winners recently but I know from my own discretionary trading that when I get into [ultra confident/everyone else is a fool ] mode, the market normally brings me right back down to earth.
Bunk, He hasn’t been ultra-confident. He’s just had some serious swagger from picking some INSANE trades, and having a few watchlists with 90%+ hit ratios.
….Wouldn’t you?
I’ve been ultra confident?
That might have been me saying “told you so” on the trades I have taken. Don’t you think?
i’ll say it for ya X TOLD YA SO,,LULU TOLD YA SO
Yes that’s exactly what I meant. Your results speak for themselves. No offence intended, just a note of caution.
We do need an “Option Asshole” indicator…for when I get too cocky though.
Nice correlation to the sentiment chart. If Jeff is right, I will be doing the shmoney dance to celebrate http://youtu.be/C7LTfrxaNxc
I’m up 45% this year on a 8 figure account I manage because I bought heavy into the teeth of the abyss when people were capitulating back in May. I believe we will have a second such opportunity within 1-2 weeks. I’m 100% cash and getting ready
Jimmy, what did you buy back in May? What are you eyeing up right now?
I was buying all of the momentum names…NOW, LNKD, YELP etc.
NEWSFLASH: Bluestar is not long the stock market, it was a hoax. All is well.
ha ha! I don’t know what to think now…
I hear Egypt is nice this time of year. I fancy travelling by boat.
Denial… the chart doesn’t lie,,,thats why its called denial…its not over until fly recants,and goes all in
I’ll be selling the rips over the next few weeks. Easy money will be made on the downside.
I’ll be buying yer dips.
Nice, if we co-ordinate this we can make a killing!
I’ve noticed that you and I can pick a few stocks and do well on either side at the same time.
Yeah it shows you can make money a number of ways in the market. I’ve made some good money on the short side over the last couple of weeks whereas you’ve been killing long. I hit YELP for 320% today but did;’t post as I didn’t post entry (posted on twitter). It’s so interesting how the market works, I’m totally addicted to it and feel it’s a battle of the mind as much as anything. Thanks for the IBM find hopefully we won’t both be wrong!
$GME held up really well and looks really good on multiple time frames.
Great fundies right now on GME too. It will be there best season ever coming up and Destiny is crushing records for sales. All the shorts are wrong in the short term, and you can make money from them. I have been for months, buying every major dip on GME.
Option Asshole indicator definitely went off with Groupon.
Is Lulu that type of trade though? Doubtful
No, not a LULU trade. This requires some thought….
The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browesr. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.
Why do i see YELP just starting into aversion? I don’t think i’m ever going to get the hang of that sentiment chart real time.
look at YELP on a 2 year chart with the LOG setting off, focus on the 2014 time frame. YELP should be making a turn for its next run to 100 soon (returning confidence) or it will fail. Right here.
Aversion will look like a failure
Would not will
My predictive powers are pretty hit or miss lol
Either way, the coming move should be fast. One side is going to make a lot of money, the other side will be scribing “so was Red” soon enough.
Errr, I meant “Brooks was here” since you know, Red decided to get busy living and all.
I don’t suppose the July 30th leap wasn’t aversion to denial on July 31st going from 75 to 67 and the rest of the gains since were topped out with enthusiasm on Sept 2?
No, or I would have blogged that instead.
This weeks calendar coupled with yesterday’s action essentially has put me in a do-nothing state. I will be taking profits where I can off my September calls and that is about it
any one in the room still holding ZU Sept 37 calls?
Me
OA whts ur target for ZU? 40ish?
Yeah, I was shooting for that.
Oct 39s, sold Sept 36s
Anyone playing BTU for a oversold bounce?
YZC at good spot i think
OA, Is CRTO broken here or shud I double down?
+1. If you could discuss in tonight’s session that would be great. I am holding October calls so I am trying not to rush to judgement, but I wasn’t sure how it looked in the context of the ‘broken’ discussion from last night (and I’m new here). Thanks!
My thoughts (but who am I):
Looks to me fell through support this AM but regained the channel. Looks OK if it stays above 33.5, otherwise it probably goe sto close the 8/28 gap.
I had sold out of $ZU 37s 9/12 and bought the 38s yesterday as it held tough.
Jeff, GOOGL looks to be reclaiming an important spot. Are you in the 595s or looking to make an entry if not?
I don’t believe it is yet, but I’m hoping that the more we discuss this all of these stocks in the same pattern, the more we’ll catch on to it.
SINA looks to be making a beeline for Zero.
My portfolio looks to be making a beeline to Zero.
MBLY?
Bought biotech yesterday.Oct CELG ARWR ISIS all close to the money..Only specs I have some trust right now. CELG looking good.
I have CELG 95s I bought on their move up a few months ago – feel better about them today. Also bought BIIB 327.50s yesterday which are looking very good today
Nice! IV low on the big caps also.Gimme some delta!
Of course thanks to you Jeff i had cash to buy them with my LULU”s.I always seem to have one position that saves my ass .haha.
The tension….anxiety….discouragement. “Can you feel it?” This next move is going to be so powerful. http://youtu.be/tirBu1pa0EU
Important move going on for the FXI
OA, is Adrian Peterson “broken”?
Are MN sports fans broken?
Twinkles how you coping?
MN sports fans don’t have a whole lot to cheer about.
the twins suck, the vikings will suck (minus AP), the timberwolves suck (bye bye love).
the only bright spot is the Wild, but i don’t follow hockey that much.
…and i suppose the Lynx, but nobody gives a shit about the WNBA, including me.
All this horribleness surrounds us, which why i’m taking up deer hunting this fall. 🙂
Aw come on….the Gophs did a bang up job at TCU….oh – wait a second..
You can’t get me down there. I went to Wisconsin, so i’m a badgers fan. Just waiting for college BB season to start.
Football is dead to me – the Biggest Ten is now a volleyball conference
I went to LSU – football is still good (until we lose to a team we shouldn’t)
@k_melancon – were you at least a little nervous in the first half of that Wisco vs LSU game. what a collapse. if we had even a serviceable QB, i don’t think we lose that game.
stupid fake punt
A little nervous? I was in full blown rage mode – then something happened and I still am at a loss to explain it, it was like Wisconsin threw out the play book and decided to let the water boy make calls Wisco definitely lost that game vice LSU winning.
The only team worth a shit to watch is the Gopher Hockey club… And sometimes the St. Cloud team.
The FXI formed an Island top on Friday, which is a strong pattern in my book. I’d be surprised if this move sticks.
so you are heavy bearish?
That 30-min chart on ZU would be hard pressed to get any more coiled. Explosive move coming.
Basic materials leading the way today
love WFM and where it’s bouncing today. doubled down on oct $40’s.
My Sep 42s are a bridge too far – I should have sold them on the Icahn rumor….
If ZU can get through the last of this supply at 37 look out.
Good lord I am happy I am mostly cash because being in this market the last 2-3 days must be fairly interesting… huge melt up or huge drop?! It’s a damn coin flip at this point lol. OA is likely to be right, but this market doesn’t like people to always be right.
OA: You weren’t feeling similar in Summer 2012 or Spring 2010 right?
What on earth are you talking about?
The market will go up down or sideways.
are most of y’all in YELPS already or still eyeing for the right time to move in the chips.
I bought Sep 79s this morning – figured what he hell
i missed the shorter entry cuz i’m trying to price out leaps for a play on yahoo buying them out.
i was eyeing up 81’s for the 4th week of Oct. But no volume and the spread is a buck. 🙁
Yeah – I find that for the momos it is front week only or the regular options – other timeframes are thin
Looking at adding to my YGE here
OIBR long term bottom may be in? Like to see bull flag form and let me get some below70 cents
I have Oct puts in P but it’s starting to look like a really nice long. May have to flip it.
I like the YOKU. FEYE not bad off the 32.50 buyer.
Alec, are you still in GOOGL?
yea. what about you? Looking to make at least some of that premium back after todays action
Nice job, Alec. Most would have sold yesterday. You are trying to max premium. Good work.
ru still holding ?
Is GOOG safe now OA?
thnx!
I like the google.
$CRTO Positioned. STOKEDDD
$CRTO Oct $40 As well!
wow, only OA saw this move coming…
AMZN working to plan. PCLN too. I added a VIPS at lows today. nothing to see here.