For those that read this not long ago, this was truly one of the most remarkable calls of the year.
Not only based on the fact that the stock hit such a lofty price target of mine when there were zero expectations for this stock just over a month ago, but the way it traded to my price target. Both my longs in steel (purchased AKS back in May) have marched higher nearly every single day. For those that have followed me into this, I have been planning for this move in steel stocks since 2011.
The X calls I purchased were nearly 1000% at expiration, but I decided to exercise the options and take delivery of the shares with a cost basis of $28 per share. With any luck, X rings the $40 register today, effectively making this one of my top predictions of 2014.
I could take the time to enlighten you on other great stuff we have going on here, but you likely already know. I bought September calls in AWAY this morning, and am watching ONVO, TXTR, RNG and TRIP.
Good Day, Sir…
OA
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Great call OA. I wasn’t in the steel names but I was impressed with your call and how you helped so many of the members here crush it in those names!
I’ve been watching RNG for a few weeks. I’m long the name already but I think above 13.91 it should be popping.
outside reversal day candle in TWTR so far. needs help otherwise might be time to close out. (for the win of course)
I went w/TRIP, ForTheRip
I’m watching this one too.
Wow the mighty AAPL down 3%!
Whoa. Makes me feel better about selling my shares last week.
I decided there wasn’t a clear upside beyond $100 and that money would be better used elsewhere, then got pissed when it spent the next few days ticking up, slowly but surely.
Hey OA — any update on your FEYE position? Looks good still, but the velocity in the name is a bit troublesome
I’m no expert but I’d personally be out if it drops under 32 but I’d have been out after it went from 2% to -2% in like 2 seconds.
Stocks that trend away from a breakout…if they take out prior days high and don’t take out the low – trend in tact.
so then by that definition TWTR broke (there’s that term) trend by taking out yesterday’s low and friday’s close?
Yep, so it means a pause in the trend at minimum.
In the case of TWTR, a close above yesterdays low and high taken out, trend still in tact?
Bruce posts at 11:22, it tags $31.90 at 11:28.
What do you think of something like NGHC?
Everything is losing steam so fast…
where are those comments?
QIHU puking. I like it.
Sold $GOOGL at $593 today tempted to buy it back
GOOGL dying. Any thoughts?
Free pick: buy NUGT
NUGT had like a stealth ~$187 mil buying on weakness block trade yesterday.
what time was that? The end of Sept calls showing activity/fat premiums
For every buyer, there is a seller …
dumbest comment of the day
nugt free advice,,,get what ya pay for I guess JDST
Says the guy who couldn’t spare his right hand to create an account name. What were you going, anyway?
$QIHU maybe near-term oversold, aversion anyone?
Long $QIHU Sept 86 and looking for bounce to ~92.5 if not higher.
$AWAY ~0.875 33’s buy nasdaq kekee
FSLR doing work
I wish SCTY would do some too.
OA- Nasdaq names are taking a hit. Sign to be defensive with the top picks, especially nasdaq ones like lulu, away, tsla etc. Whats ur view?
it’s all AAPL’s fault
noone of the comments below answered my question lol. OA can you advice plz. tks
Do you see a lot of momo getting hit hard today? I only see three or four names hit.
As a reminder, Dow is up 40…lolz.
all these hit pieces about apple….it’s because they want your shares.
Apple is not done. Samsung makes gimmicky crap but Apple is staying high end and professional. They’re positioning themselves into the healthcare world and it’s going to make for excellent returns in the long run.
Have you ever owned a Samsung Note 3 or Galaxy S5? They are fairly high quality, fast, and efficient cell phones…. The resolution is insane and so is the camera. The new wave of Android wear devices sure helps to increase their premium phone market share too. No doubt AAPL will sell millions of iPhone 6 but the gap is closing up… something to think about.
You’re talking about the company that rolled out a bunch of “new” phones that were actually the old phone, but now in candy colors, right?
Don’t get me wrong — I like my ipad. But I can’t send an email that has a PDF, a JPG, and a DOC all as attachments to the same message. Stuff like that greatly limits AAPL’s usefulness in a professional environment.
+1
u aint jumpin around like a monkey today is u
stupid
patience, going to 175 in the next few years.
Yup never trading $PCLN again.
$PCLN is how I dug my hole back at the beginning of July. A couple more good trades before I’m officially out of it.
Yep, same.
http://youtu.be/fGx6K90TmCI
Raul, nice. I’m going to have to counter you: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKwoj3H8-8o
lol, this too http://youtu.be/wZAhqEiq4cA
ha ha!! absolutely…
Hi Jeff, why Shares ? Are you seeing further UP in the stock ?
Sorry, what are you talking about? X? Why do I own stock? Because I got a great deal on it.
YEs X, Thanks, Respect for OA and Andrew Carnegie
Joined the part with a little $P, so to speak
ROFL new lows in lulu
I will let this motherfucker go to 0
watch me
frog – are you short $LULU?? (serious q). If not, what do you have cooking today?
im long lulu
looking for a yolo. nothing yet
maybe yoku
YOKU is interesting. For some reason, you strike me as the ONVO sort of chap..?? maybe?
T sep20 35 is midyolo
-telco’s look gooood
LULU was going great until that analyst downgrade. I just took a ETF position in TZA. funny feeling about this market right now.
Noni – matching the LULU daily starting in April against the Sentiment Cycle, today looks like it could totally be the depths of Aversion.
I was thinking bout $MBLY puts, in retrospect mmm maybe not….
Good institutional bid under that stock.
Picked up some GC_F this morning 1267.5 I may add an AMZN short at the close which I hope doesn’t pull a BIDU on me!
It’s justin BIIBer time again. picking up Sep calls to start. Hoping to see 341 hold, otherwise might add at 340 if it looks like it will bounce quickly from there.
There’s a weird feel to the market today. Not sure which side to play?
chiefton, do you still have your fleet of tankers? There’s somewhat of a trendline that starts in late May that both NAT & TNK are pretty close to resting on.. Doesn’t look like too bad a spot, here. 5yr vol profile on the shipping etf SEA is very interesting…
Yeah still have them. They look so good on the long term chart so I’m going to give them a longer leash but I’m a pretty impatient person! Are you in either of them?
chiefton, I’m a NAT man. It’s shown up on a PPT accumulation screener I run quite often since early June for me. Something is a brewing…
OA still holding googl 590 weeklies ?
Yes, that is trade of the week yo.
Today sucks.
linmoo, did you buy anything? NQ is looking super coiled..
Bought AWAY and TEVA just before the midday pop. Traded NQ a few times for a small profit. All depends on PR. I think it will stay coiled longer than people think.
Bought Sept puts in AMZN.
love it. may join you
Hello AMZN put buddy.
Oh crap… I thought my chart looked like it could be near the bottom of the channel but I was figuring doom and gloom would make it fall though, Pre-Market says otherwise. Doh.
ive gott pull this damn CCIH scab off, its killing me. its got until Ali baba and thats it
I bot some more $SLV calls today. Oct $19 strike
googl yolo 592.50’s. because IDGAF
Hi OA what do you think of the chart of natural gas /ng?
Dicey. What’s your bias?
I would say long. Only looking at the weekly chart. Looks like a series of higher lows.
I own a bunch of VEEV sept 30 calls.
I owned a bunch of August VEEV $25 calls…
oops, guess I should have rolled those to September!!
Today was a strange day in the market. That about all I could take away from it. Some momo stocks ripped while others got crushed. The market wasn’t particularly fast. My best guess is profit taking ahead of news events tomorrow.
Hi Jeff,
Please have a look at TSL .. Looks like it has lot of upside ..
I’m gonna take a stab at some 82.50 calls for .36
uuhh COP
None of the internet foggers , oops bloggers(sorry,my backspace doesn’t work) touting MBLY going into earnings ??
Good , increases my confidence .
I took profits on X too early. Ive promised myself now to hold tight and let winners keep winning.
Looks like one of our trade of the week stocks is going to open lower and provide a good entry if it can hold. Limit order in.
i went sept4’s just cuz i had too much sept paper. extra week is like my binky.
bot TOTW, both plays
Geez…. you’re supposed to be waiting for the bat signal.
Strategy question: I’m holding DANG calls that are currently worth 25% of what I paid for them. Do I sell to reinvest the remaining value or hold and hope for a comeback?
I let too many options expire worthless and need to get better about recovering premium when a trade is “broken”.
I sold my DANG 15s when it broke out to the bottom last Thurs. It was consolidating and trying to pick direction, but went the wrong way, so I salvaged some premium.
Your position might be a little different, but it has helped me tremendously to establish what the parameters of the trade are before I get into it. If my plan breaks, I get out of the trade.
Or risk a lower amount to begin with so you don’t lose as much
I’m fine if I lose all of it.. but saving 25% can make a big difference in the long.
Only’s point is correct, but I was away from the computer and had no chance to sell when it broke trend as it shot to $14.
Yeah, I’ve gotten screwed on that a couple of times, too. I’ve been meaning to experiment with stop-losses. It looks like I can set it up to trigger on a price point of the underlying security, then just sell at market. It’s not an ideal situation, but it might mean salvaging more premium and not having to babysit as much.
TRIP is on.
Morgan Stanley put a $60 PT on $X? WTF… I was planning on waiting for $42-44, but that’s got me thinking I should wait and see how it behaves once it gets up there.
Might as well. Everyone jumping on the bandwagon.
I’m totally tripping balls
ONVO looks like a dump.
closed out googl yolo’s. double tapped with 590’s and 592.50’s in 48 hours. extra helping of profit.
rock solid, I sold this week’s weeklies, and am holding next weeks.
Sold my $TFM Dec 30 call just now… but I think it was a mistake.
I’ve done something similar with AAPL calls before…bought long dated, then changed my mind after a good run and sold, thinking it would pull back anyway…which it did, but then it continued to run. You could also sell front month calls against your position when you think it is peaking, but you can’t expect to bank a lot of coin selling the premium…that said, it helps some if you plan to hold the longer dated calls.
OA, Thoughts of SFUN price target, holding Sept calls.
I’ve been saying $15…but might not get there by Sep expiry.
That’s what I was thinking. thx
OA, are you staying out of ONVO based on this morning’s small move?
I haven’t traded it yet because it hasn’t done anything. As we discussed, we’re waiting for buyers or strength first, right?
Got it. I’ve been in for a while already.
buyers on strength….
Going to trade my $AMBA Sept 30 for an Oct 40 I think.
Earnings after close and that takes a gain but keeps me in it with an “if I am right I am right and if I am wrong less risked”. Earningswhispers predicts a beat so why not.
Totally wrong on a couple of shorts this week but lesson learned. I like DRYS here and the shippers in general look good.
what were you wrong on?
this DATA caught an upgrade this morning, generally i dont give a rats ass about those, but looking at the vol profile, above 70 and this thing goes
Look at its competition too. They all look good up above.
agreed. auspicious timinig inside the house of AH we started talking those couple weeks ago….
Fuck it bought another TSLA put just now. Still mad I biased my chart reading with doominess. Never gonna try to predict a channel break again!
Can’t believe my YGE purchase right b4 earnings now in the green
P.S. Another great call with your trade of the week OA
jeff- CSOD setting up?
might go for the hat trick and do 597.50’s on googl.
Hey Jeff, I’m watching DECK today. You got any thoughts on this one?
bought the feye dip
ow.
X marks the spot for XNET today.
I think my post got deleted. But here it goes again. OA- seeing a price target 1 of 34 and then 200ma which is 36 for one of your trades- AWAY. Do you agree with the targets? Plz advice
$WB – volume coming in. Let’s go!
Just about to mention WB, fryguy. Hoping for a weeklong push here!
pooosh
BONA for the 4-play? (ok, was really thinking of this as a 5, but I couldn’t resist). meanwhile, NOAH back to taking a rip. In hindsight, the location at 15 was ideal for an easy move to 16, I just wasn’t tracking it closely.
yolo part 2. googl 597.50’s. risking 1/3rd of this mornings profit.
Alright I think I am cooling it a week until I get a new account with 60 days free trading. TSLA punished me and AMZN punished me the most for thinking it’d brake its channel’s bottom. Ugh.
chin up, bro. can’t get ’em all right. I got blasted in a BIIB entry from yesterday. It happens. It’s fun having you around here.
OA can we try PCLN again ?
Looks like the Joan Rivers news was more than the market could handle…
the Joan Rivers market top of 2014…I didn’t see that one coming 🙂
otherwise, it’s Bruce Keller ALWAYS WINS…thus his short on TSLA is back to break even if not green.
Like Wesley Snipes says “Always bet on Bruce”…
Not a bad start
Damn ONVO. I had high hopes for you.
yelp yolo anyone?
or wynn
loco options pricing in 15-20% jump tn
not gonna happen ?
small caps getting obliterated
get out of my way
Obliterated = your nugt boner
wynn yolo
see ya’ll homos tmorrow
CYOU is a f’n pos
Tick was alarming today. Did it print almost a negative 1900? That’s pretty out there. I have iwm puts and nflx puts to hedge.
No, its never been that low.
Just listened to AH and I agree with your gold/silver analysis. I was wrong on this and sold my long exposure in this space earlier in the day. I’m leaving it alone for now but it does feel like a flush may happen. I also sold my energy stocks and managed to escape about flat on average over the last 2 weeks. I really cleaned my book up today as it helps me get a fresh look at the market. I did keep the shorts on though.( AMZN BIDU DANG). I’ve been guilty of over trading the last 2 weeks in this chop but I’ve hit the reset button and ready to go!
The flush would be so constructive, and I think is needed for the next meaningful move.
Hat trick completed on weekly GOOGL.
flipped 590’s, 592.50’s, and 597.5’s in a 3 day succession all over triple digit gains. Compounded Leverage….the crack version of his cocaine world.
WOW
that’s so nasty bro, nice work
$IFON leading this market higher…YES !!!
Jeff- i know you preach letting winners run but how do you handle a situation like FEYE? Got the entry, it was up 400%, and now down to around 50% up. I would hate to let a winner turn into a loser.
$29.70 needs to hold here. I did the same.
That’s something I’m struggling with lately — I appreciate the point of needing big winners in this style of trading, but with all the chop lately, small wins have slowly turned into smaller wins or even losses. Tough to offset the inevitable losses from trades that don’t develop or break down and get cut.
BAC is in the same boat right now.
Jeff, do you suggest PCLN for next week ?