At least Britain is on board @ 0.5%…the ECB is full of sissies
Comments »Ron Paul wins after debate poll; Does anyone care?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/07/7658608-who-do-you-think-won-the-republican-debate-at-the-reagan-library
Ron Paul wins online poll after debate in virtual landslide with over 47% of vote. Romney 2nd with 19%.
Does Matt Drudge support Ron Paul? Naturally, his headlines are 24/7 anti-Obama, but have they become Ron Paul friendly?
Comments »Dessler vs. Rick Perry: Is the 2011 Texas Drought Evidence of Human-Caused Climate Change?
September 5th, 2011 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
One of the most annoying things about the climate change debate is that any regional weather event is blamed on humans, if even only partly. Such unscientific claims cannot be supported by data — they are little more than ambiguous statements of faith.
The current “exceptional” Texas drought is no exception. People seem to have short memories…especially if they were born after most of the major climate events of the past occurred.
Andy Dessler recently made what I’m sure he thought was a safe claim when faulting Texas Gov. Rick Perry for being “cavalier about climate change” (as if we could stop climate from changing by being concerned about it).
Dessler said, “..warming has almost certainly made the (Texas) heat wave and drought more extreme than it would otherwise have been.”
This clever tactic of claiming near-certainty of at least SOME effect of humans on weather events was originally invented by NASA’s James Hansen in his 1988 Senate testimony for Al Gore, an event that became the turning point for raising public awareness of “global warming” (oops, I’m sorry, I mean climate change).
The trouble is that climate change theory predicts changes, up and down, in just about anything you can imagine. So, anything unusual that happens anywhere, anytime, is deemed “consistent” with global warming.
But this tactic can work both ways — a specific drought might have instead been made LESS severe by the general tendency toward MORE rainfall, which is a much more robust prediction of the climate models with warming.
For example, let’s look at June-July total rainfall over the whole contiguous U.S. — which is only 1.6% of the Earth’s surface — over the last 100+ years (August data are not yet posted at NCDC):
To read the rest (including some great chart porn) go here.
Comments »Top 50p Tax Rate Damages UK, say Economists
Twenty high-profile economists have urged the government to drop the top 50p tax rate, which they say is doing “lasting damage” to the UK economy.
In a letter to the Financial Times, they say it should be axed “at the earliest opportunity” to boost growth.
The tax is paid at 50p for each pound earned over £150,000 and affects around 310,000 people.
Critics say cutting the top rate at a time of cuts would be “monstrously unfair” and “phenomenally immoral”.
Ministers say although the 50p rate is temporary, their policy is to first increase the income tax threshold to £10,000.
The chancellor has asked HM Revenue and Customs to look at how much has been raised by the 50p rate, but it will not be able to count this until this year’s self-assessment tax returns are in after January next year.
The 20 signatories to the FT letter include two former members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, DeAnne Julius and Sushil Wadhwani.
It is part of a campaign being promoted through PR firm Westbourne, which they say is funded by businesses concerned about the impact of the 50p rate.
‘Mobile people’
The economists argue that the tax rate makes is making the UK “less competitive internationally, and making us less attractive as a destination for both foreign investment and talented workers”.
They call on the coalition, “to drop the 50p tax at the earliest opportunity as part of a package of measures to stimulate growth”.
Read the rest here.
Comments »Late Night Fun: Fact or Fiction
What will it be ? People are protesting against austerity and bailouts globally. Will it come here to the extent we have seen around the world ?
More importantly, do those objecting really understand a fiat currency system ?
Not a bed time story for glass half full type personalities.
An op-ed on social unrest, bailouts, and the overall burning of Rome 2.0
Not interested in the above….Nikkei Just bounced out of negative territory
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One Reason Why Keynesian Stimuli Aren’t Working: They Aren’t Keynesian
Nick Gillespie, September 7, 2011
In The Washington Times, businessman Mike Whalen (who’s associated the free-market think tank NCPA) writes up an interesting take on why various federal stimulus program have tanked like the Titanic(while causing few ripples on the way down).
His points are worth thinking about.
According to the Keynesians, the remedy for today’s economic problem is for the federal government, as the single biggest actor, to “prime the pump.” As government money starts to ripple through the economy, consumers and businesses will be encouraged and cautiously respond with limited increases of their own. Vroom! The economic engine steadily revs up in billions of responsive steps until happy days are here again. This pump-priming reaction is termed the “multiplier effect.”
There are many reasons to doubt that the multiplier exists at all and if it does, it certainly isn’t at the levels the Obama administration has claimed. As Reason’s economics columnist Veronique de Rugy has pointed out, the administration claimed that one dollar of government spending would create as much as four dollars in economic activity while other economists were coming in with multipliers of between 0.8 and 1.2, meaning that each dollar of government spending might yield just 80 cents to $1.20 in activity. Even if accurate, that buck-twenty is nothing to write home about, especially given the fact that government spending has to be pulled out of some other part of the economy via current or future taxes or borrowing. Which casts huge doubt on the possibility of any stimulus to work.
But Whalen isn’t simply dumping on Keynesianism, he’s bent on pointing out that even its latter-day adherents are straying far from their master’s theory. And in this, he’s surely correct. As Allen Meltzer has argued, Keynes was against the very sort of large structural deficits that characterize contemporary federal budgets and policy, believing instead that deficits should be “temporary and self-liquidating.” And Keynes believed that any sort of counter-cyclical spending by government should be directed toward increasing private investment, not simply spending current and future tax dollars on public works projects.
Or, to put it another way: If the federal government had a strong track record of responsible spending, it would mean one thing if it went into hock for a short period of time to goose the economy (again, whether this would work is open to question). It means something totally different when a government that spent all of the 21st century piling on debt and new, long-term entitlement programs responds to an economic downturn first by creating yet another gargantuan entitlement (Obamacare) and taking on even more debt in the here-and-now. This cuts in a Milton Friedmanesque, monetarist direction too. If the Federal Reserve had not been keeping money artificially cheap for the past couple of decades and it worked to lower interest rates and increase the availability of money in a given moment, that would mean one thing. Promising to keep rates low for the next couple of years – after years of loose money and statements that all those bubbles weren’t bubbles at all – doesn’t mean the same thing.
Read the rest here.
Comments »Live Blogging From the GOP Debate @ the Reagan Presidential Library
Mainstream Media Is Already Expecting and Titling a Fed Move at the End of the Month
The key to this article is ”
Though officials aren’t certain to take new steps this month, they are looking at alternatives to that controversial bond-buying, known as “quantitative easing.” One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank’s portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.
The move—known to some in markets as “Operation Twist” and to some inside the Fed as “maturity extension”—is meant to further push down long-term interest rates and thus encourage economic activity. The program draws its name from a similar 1960s effort by the U.S. Treasury and the Fed, in which they tried to “twist” interest rates so that long-term rates were lower relative to short-term rates.
Anticipation of the move—along with grim economic news and the Fed’s public plan to keep short-term interest rates near zero through 2013—has helped push yields on 10-year Treasury notes, above 3% in late July, to around 2%.
Although some consumers and businesses are unable or unwilling to borrow more at any interest rate, several Fed officials believe pushing rates still lower can help on the margin.
“There are still some businesses that at a lower cost of funds are going to make investment decisions and hiring decisions based on an ability to lock in those funds at a lower rate,” Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said in an interview.”
Comments »Documents Reveal General Dynamics Played Role in Libya Uprising
A major Western defense firm was upgrading military equipment for an elite Libyan security brigade just before an uprising against Muammar Gaddafi, documents show, showing how the West tried to foster ties with him during his final years in power.
Less than a month before the start of the revolt, the British arm of U.S.-based General Dynamics was making arrangements to improve communications systems for tanks, artillery and armored troop carriers for the Khamis Brigade, which played a lead role in cracking down on the revolt, according to documents found by Reuters at a brigade base.
General Dynamics said the upgrade was never completed. But the documents illustrate in detail for the first time what weapons were involved in the deal and that the firm was doing business with Gaddafi’s forces on the eve of the uprising.
It said the equipment might have been included in the British subsidiary’s May 2008 contract with Libya — an 85 million pound ($136 million) deal to provide a tactical communications and data system as part of what it termed at the time “the United Kingdom’s initiatives to improve economic, educational and defense links with Libya.”
This was after Gaddafi, widely ostracized abroad for much of his 42-year rule because the West accused him of supporting terrorism, abandoned his program of mass-destruction weapons in 2003, returning Libya to mainstream international politics.
The Khamis Brigade, led by and named after one of Gaddafi’s sons, was the best equipped of Libya’s security forces and was directly involved in putting down the uprising in cities such as Misrata and Tripoli, where thousands of people were killed.
Peter Bouckaert, emergencies director with Human Rights Watch, said the brigades commanded by Khamis, and another Gaddafi son, Mutassim, were able to become so strong thanks in part to procurement from Western countries.
“These elite brigades … had access to the most modern weapons,” he said. “We’ve documented arms sales from not just the usual suspects but also Western companies.
“I think the lesson is that if you’re going to sell weapons to dictators, at some point down the line you’re going to be deeply embarrassed.”
COMMUNICATION UPGRADES
A letter from a General Dynamics UK project manager, Simon Kirkham, to Libya’s defense ministry dated January 25 was found this week in the Khamis Brigade’s bullet-scarred compound near Tripoli.
That date marked the start of anti-government protests in Egypt, to Libya’s east. Libya’s neighbor to the west, Tunisia, had already toppled its president and political analysts were predicting similar protests could erupt against Gaddafi.
The note, and an Arabic document accompanying it, listed 40 T-72 tanks, eight Palmaria artillery pieces, four BTR-60 armored personnel carriers, 10 Shilka anti-aircraft systems and two M-113 armored personnel carriers to be upgraded.
“These platforms are required to meet the proposed 1 April conversion deadline,” said the letter, which listed offices in England and Wales.
A spokesman for General Dynamics, Rob Doolittle, said he could not comment specifically on the documents without seeing them, but said the equipment might have been included in the British subsidiary’s May 2008 contract with Libya.
That deal came as “part of the United Kingdom’s initiatives to improve economic, educational and defense links with Libya,” a statement released at the time said.
“It will provide communications and data handling capabilities, together with technical and training support, to the Elite Brigade of Libya’s armed forces,” the release said.
Doolittle said the firm did not finish deploying the system, involving a process sometimes referred to as “conversion” — switching from one communications system to another — and did not train Libyan forces in its use.
A small group of General Dynamics UK employees working on the system were withdrawn from Libya in early February, he added.
DREADED BRIGADE
Inside the Khamis Brigade compound, a narrow road cuts through rows of planted cypress trees which shield the central area from view. The burned-out husks of tanks and ammunition crates lay tucked between the trees.
Human rights activists and analysts say the Khamis unit played a major role in the civil war, spearheading the fight against NATO-backed rebels who took up arms after a crackdown on anti-government protesters in February.
A leaked 2009 U.S. diplomatic cable said the brigade “effectively serves as a regime protection unit.” Libyans knew the brigade for its discipline and fierce loyalty to Gaddafi.
“This was a place of torture, a place of imprisonment, a place of mercenaries and a place of terrorism,” Abdel Hafidth Iswad, a former rebel now helping guard the compound, said.
The General Dynamics UK deal to provide communications technology to the unit came the year after former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s 2007 visit to Libya, a seminal moment in the push to warmer relations between Gaddafi and the West.
For years, Gaddafi had been shunned for his government’s alleged role in bombings and other attacks in Britain and elsewhere, and was accused by human rights activists of brutal repression of dissent at home.
The documents obtained by Reuters showed the General Dynamics UK work was scheduled up to and through the date the revolt broke out, with start dates between February 10 and February 24, and end dates between February 24 and March 17.
Separate documents found by Human Rights Watch in the unit’s compound, overrun by anti-Gaddafi fighters last month and now open to journalists, showed the brigade was receiving arms from a variety of countries and companies.
One 2004 order marked the delivery of Russian-made Kalashnikov rifles, and one from 2009 showed an unspecified delivery was made from South Africa. Another 2009 order showed rifles came from Belgium’s FN Herstal.
Boxes of those FN rifles now litter the compound, including the archives room where many of the documents related to the daily functioning, tactical planning and weapons procurement of the base were found.
“Is anyone surprised these weapons were used against his (Gaddafi’s) own people?” Bouckaert said.
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U.S. Takes Fifth Place in Competitive Countries
Italy’s Senate Votes in Favor of Berlusconi Austerity Plan
Ron Paul at the Palmetto Freedom Forum in S.C.
Mitt Romney Unveils a 59 Point Jobs Plan
Greek Default Calculated at 88% According to CMA and CDS Markets
Quotes From EU Finance Ministers Suggesting the Euro is DEAD
Obama’s Job Speech Expected to Request From Congress a $300 Billion Stimulus Package
G-7 Meeting on Friday May Fail to Offer Euro Debt Crisis Plan
Germany court strikes bailout lawsuit, parliament approval required
Comments »BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s top court handed its country’s parliament a greater say over euro zone bailouts, potentially hampering Berlin’s ability to act decisively against a debt crisis which Chancellor Angela Merkel said needed a fundamental rethink to solve.
The Constitutional Court rejected a series of lawsuits aimed at blocking the participation of Europe’s biggest economy in emergency loan packages but said the government must get approval from parliament’s budget committee before granting such aid.
“This was a very tight decision. But it should not be mistakenly interpreted as a constitutional blank check authorizing further rescue measures,” the judge told plaintiffs, government officials and members of parliament in the courtroom in Karlsruhe.
The euro briefly rose against the dollar in response.
“Today’s ruling should bring some relief to financial markets as a total chaos scenario has been avoided, but it should not lead to euphoria,” said Carsten Brzeski at ING.
“The ruling confirms our view that the German piecemeal approach on the debt crisis is not likely to change but eventually the German parliament will vote in favor of a second Greek bailout package and the beefed-up EFSF (euro zone rescue fund).”
Jim Rogers Says the Swiss Franc Peg to th Euro is a “Huge Mistake”
Rogers said it will work for a period of time, but in the end the SNB will eat a huge loss.
Comments »Soros: Crisis ‘Worse Than Lehmans’
Soros feels the current European situation is worse than the Lehman Bros. crisis sighting tight liquidity problems and Europe’s ability to actually handle the crisis.
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