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Market Update

The Yen Helps Nikkei to Pare Losses, Commodities Still in Selloff Mode

“Japanese stocks fell, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average capping the longest losing streak in three months, after commodities slumped amid concern global economic growth is slowing. Shares pared losses as a slide in the yen buoyed exporters.

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. lost 4.8 percent after gold capped the biggest drop in three decades. Mazda Motor Corp. (7261), the Japanese automaker with the highest proportion of exports, erased an earlier 3.3 percent drop as the yen weakened against all its major peers.Softbank Corp. (9984) slumped 6.8 percent after Dish Network Corp. outbid the carrier for Sprint Nextel Corp. Kansai Electric (9503) Power Co. slid 5 percent after CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets recommended selling the utility.

The Nikkei 225 fell 0.4 percent to close at 13,221.44 in Tokyoafter falling as much as 2 percent. The gauge dropped for a third consecutive day, the longest losing streak since Jan. 23, after climbing to an almost five-year high last week. The broader Topix (TPX) Index fell 1.3 percent to 1,119.20, with more than three shares sliding for each that gained, as economic data from China and the U.S. missed estimates.

“All of a sudden, the market has switched to a risk-off mode,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan’s third-largest bank by market value. “Investors should take a cautious approach to Japanese stocks, but some are probably looking to buy on dips because of expectations about Bank of Japan policy.”

Topix Rally…”

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Until Today, Stocks Continue to Decouple From Bonds

“Capitulating bears and overseas buyers are drowning out every other concern for American stocks, pushing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) to successive records even after the biggest drop in Treasury yields since June.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at all-time highs twice last week and hasn’t traded more than 1.8 percent away from its record in the 23 days since March 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 2.1 percent advance over that period came as rates on 10-yeargovernment bonds tumbled 0.36 percentage point to as low as 1.7 percent. Plunges of that size coincided with losses of 4.6 percent for equities since 2010…..”

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China Stocks Fall Like a Boxed Stock

“Poor retail sales and GDP data sent Chinese stocks down 10% in a session.

China’s stocks fell, dragging the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) Index down by 10 percent from its February high, as data on the nation’s economic growth and industrial production missed estimates.

Construction machinery maker Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co. slumped to a 15-month low after forecasting lower profit. Cosco Shipping Co. (600428), a unit of China’s biggest shipping company, lost 3.9 percent after reporting a loss. Zijin Mining Group Co. sank 5.6 percent, leading gold producers lower, after the metal’s futures dropped by the 5 percent daily exchange limit in Shanghai.

The Shanghai Composite fell 1.1 percent to 2,181.94 at the close, its lowest level since Dec. 24. The economy grew 7.7 in the first quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, less than the 8 percent median forecast in a survey of 41 economists. Industrial production rose 8.9 percent in March, the report showed. That compared with the 10.1 percent median economist forecast.

“These figures are pretty bad,” said Dai Ming, a fund managerat Hengsheng Hongding Asset Management Co. in Shanghai, which manages $190 million. “The current stock prices haven’t fully reflected lower-than-expected economic data and the market has room for further declines.”

The CSI 300 Index retreated 1 percent to 2,436.82. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong slid 1.8 percent. The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, fell 0.5 percent in New York yesterday.

Economic Data

The Shanghai index has fallen 10 percent from a Feb. 6 high amid concern steps to coolproperty prices will drag on economic growth. Valuations on the gauge dropped to 8.9 times projected 12-month earnings on April 12, the lowest level since Dec. 13 and less than the seven-year average of 15.8, data compiled by Bloomberg show…”

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The Bulls Grab More New Highs

 

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DOW up 61

S&P up 5

NASDAQ up 3

Gold up $2

WTI down $1.17

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XyTpENuoCI 450 300]

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Corporate Profits Mirror S&P Performance or Vice Versa

“I’ve made a big fuss over QE in recent years and yet the market continues to plough higher.  I often have people ask me:

“Why does QE make stock prices go higher if there’s no fundamental impact?

My answer is always the same.  First, look at Europe where QE has also been implemented and stock markets like Greece, Italy and Spain have been decimated.  Then look at a country like the USA where QE has been implemented and yet stocks soar.  Then ask yourself what the big difference is between these countries?  The answer: austerity versus massive deficit spending.

It might be easy to scoff at such an observation, but the reality of the picture is that corporate profits have been largely driven by the deficit in this cycle.  As net investment collapsed the traditional driver of profits was overtaken by government spending (see figure 1).  This makes sense if you’re familiar with Kalecki and his profits equation.  It makes even more sense if you’d been working under Richard Koo’s balance sheet recession theory in recent years.  The impact of government deficit spending in such an environment has been massive.  All those people screaming about the ill effects of deficit spending and hyperinflation in recent years missed the very explainable and fundamental driver of the profits momentum…..”

Full article and charts

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U.S. Futures Point to Another Record High

DOW and S&P futures are indicating a higher open. Markets will make the final decision after initial claims at 8:30am. Last week intitial claims and employment data suggested a shift in momentum.

Currently NASDAQ futures look not so good, but yesterday the NASDAQ put in the best upside performance.

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Central Bank Activity Drives Another Day of Green Equities in Europe

European (SXXP) stocks advanced for a fourth day, as retailers and household-goods makers rallied, before a report that may show American unemployment claims fell. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also rose.

Marks & Spencer (MKS) Group Plc climbed the most in three weeks after posting sales growth that exceeded projections. Ashmore Group Plc jumped the most in four years as its assets under management increased. Eurasian Natural Resources Corp. dropped 5.1 percent after a report that its chairman has threatened to quit. Evraz (EVR) Plc declined the most since November 2011 as it refrained from announcing a final dividend for 2012.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.5 percent to 294.77 at 10:25 a.m. in London, for the longest winning streak since Jan. 4. The gauge has erased its losses so far this month, after rallying for 10 successive months. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.5 percent to a 20-month high.

“We’ve clearly got the equity markets underpinned by the continuation of quantitative easing in the States and the aggressive easing of monetary policy in Japan,” Bob Parker, who helps oversee about $400 billion as senior adviser at Credit Suisse Asset Management in London, told Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television. “I think the next move will be some form of easing by the European Central Bank. If we do have a correction — and I use the word ‘if’ — it’s going to be very minor indeed.”

The volume of shares changing hands in companies on the Stoxx 600 was 18 percent greater than the average of the past 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

American Jobs…”

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European Markets Close Full Retard Higher as Strength Gains in Extending Loan Terms to Ireland and Portugal

“Yesterday, Reuters reported that EU officials were pushing for a seven-year extension on the bailout loans given to Ireland and Portugal during the euro crisis in recent years.

Today, the “troika” of international lenders at the EU, ECB, and IMF made the recommendation official ahead of a meeting of Eurogroup finance ministers in Dublin taking place on Friday and Saturday.

European markets are on fire today, and bank stocks are leading the way higher across the euro zone. Portugal is up 4.5 percent, Spain is up 3.7 percent, Italy is up 3 percent, Germany is up 2 percent, and France is up 1.9 percent.

Bloomberg‘s Finbarr Flynn & Brian Parkin have the details of the troika’s recommendation:

The troika and the EFSF “would advocate to extend the maximum average maturity by seven years as it appears to be the best compromise accommodating the constraints and preferences of debtors and creditors,” …”

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Chinese Burrito Data Helps U.S. Markets to Pop to All Time Highs

U.S. equities liked the fact that lower than expected inflation in China came in overnight. The expectations are that China has more room to ease and that sent commodities on a tear along with most sectors across the board.

The markets did pare half their gains by the closing bell.

DOW up 59

NASDAQ 15

S&P up 5.5

Gold up $12

WTI up $0.67

beardedclam

 

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS6B8zC2CNI 450 300]

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Bird Flu Concerns Take Down China Stocks

China’s stocks fell after a two-day holiday amid concern a bird flu outbreak and property marketcurbs will hurt the nation’s economic recovery.

China Vanke Co. and Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s biggest developers, slumped at least 2 percent after Beijing increased the minimum downpayment on purchases of second homes. Air China Ltd. (601111) and China Southern Airlines Co. paced declines for carriers on speculation flu deaths may deter people from traveling. Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co., whose drugs the government said may combat the virus, jumped 10 percent, leading gains for health-care stocks….”

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Teflon Don to the Rescue

U.S. equities had every chance to sell off in a major way today. All week we received data suggesting that the recovery is in serious jeopardy.

Yet the markets managed to pare more than 65% of its losses despite a horrible NFP #

NOTHING CAN STICK IT TO THIS TEFLON DON!!!

DOW off 41

NASDAQ off 21

S&P off 6.8

WTI down $0.24

Brent down $1.94

Gold up $26

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWLIgjB9gGw 450 300]

images

 

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