Copper Rises on Rising Consumer Confidence
“Copper rose to a two-week high in New York on signs consumer confidence is strengthening and gains by the euro after German legislators approved a second bailout for Greece.
A gauge of confidence in Germany will reach a 12-month high in March, GfK SE said. The country was the world’s third-biggest copper consumer in 2010, according to researcher CRU. Figures today may show U.S. consumers are more confident, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The euro advanced as much as 0.5 percent against the dollar.
“The metals remain buoyant for now, lifted by a weaker dollar, good economic data and less concern over EU debt now that Greece’s second bailout seems to be making progress,” William Adams, an analyst at Basemetals.com, said in a report. “With the good news flows, there seems little to unnerve the markets, and therefore the steady tone seems set to continue.”
Copper for May delivery climbed 1 percent to $3.928 a pound by 7:45 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $3.9345, the highest level since Feb. 10. Copper for three-month delivery rose 1 percent to $8,625 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.
Prices also gained as euro-area confidence in the economic outlook improved more than economists forecast. The Conference Board’s gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment, due at 10 a.m. New York time, climbed to 63 this month, the survey showed. Still, another report set for release 90 minutes earlier may show U.S. orders for durable goods fell for the first time in four months….”
Comments »Oil Slips for a Second Day on Price Destruction Issues
Blow-off Top or the Bull Market Sweet Spot in Energy Prices?
Gas prices continue spitting in Central Banker’s eyes
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Comments »Gas prices in the U.S. are nearing the freak-out point–the level at which Americans go from grumbling about getting gouged to actually reducing their gas consumption and demanding that their elected representatives start doing something to help.
And the Republican Presidential candidates have jumped all over that, suggesting that today’s high prices are Barack Obama and the Democrats’ fault.
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration is trying to preempt the criticism, saying that there’s “no silver bullet” that is going to knock gas prices back down to $2 a gallon.
And there is almost certainly no silver bullet that is going to do that, short of a global economic depression.
Gas prices are rising, in part, because oil prices are rising, and oil prices are rising because of steady changes in supply and demand.
With the growth of China, India, and other developing markets, the demand for oil is outstripping new supply, so there’s nowhere for prices to go but up.
Obviously, new sources of supply will help, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll take gas prices back down to the level that most Americans consider reasonable. Even analysts who think that today’s oil and gas prices are inflated by speculation now put the “fair price” of a barrel of oil at $75-$80, as compared to $20 a barrel a decade ago.
So, who’s to blame and what should be done?
Well, one entity that is to blame is the one doing everything it can to put the blame on someone else–the U.S. government. In the 40 years since the first oil crisis, in the early 1970s, Congress has done nothing to develop a comprehensive U.S. energy policy, one that would develop not only additional sources of oil but also leverage natural gas and renewable energy.
Najarian: Silver is the sweet spot
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Comments »By now it’s no secret that Silver has wildly outperformed the major indexes and it’s fully-precious big brother, Gold, so far in 2012. The question, naturally, is whether or not it’s too late to get on board.
In the attached clip Jon Najarian and I discuss how the “smart money” is playing silver and what it means for individual investors trading in the pits or at home via the wildly popular iShares Silver Trust etf (SLV).
In addition to the industrial function of silver making the metal a semi-appropriate way to play an economic recovery Najarian says the metal represents, “a cheaper way to play the flood into precious metals.” Regardless of silver’s 27% run year-to-date and positioning near heavy resistance at $35 an ounce, Najarian still “likes silver a lot.”
In no small part what the TradeMonster.com co-founder is seeing are notoriously short-term thinkers in the options pits buying the $35 calls out to June, a stunningly long view for the quick-trigger set.
Also supporting the notion of options players’ bullish stance on silver, at least according to Najarian, is the trading activity in a lesser known Proshares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) –a double-inverse trading vehicle designed to move $2 higher for every $1 drop in silver.
“If you thought silver was going to break (lower) people would start buying ZSL calls,” Najarian says.
Gasoline Hits $3.70 Nation Wide
China is Expected to Double Rare Earth Exports as Prices Begin to Rebound
“China, the biggest supplier of rare earths, may almost double exports this year and meet quotas set by the government as lower prices stimulate demand.
Chinese exports were 49 percent of the government-alloted quota in the first 11 months of last year because the slowing global economy sapped demand, the Ministry of Commerce said in a Dec. 27statement. Overseas sales quotas may be virtually unchanged this year at 31,130 metric tons, based on Bloomberg calculations.
“Export quotas may be met this year as overseas demand recovers,” Wang Caifeng, a former official overseeing the rare- earth industry with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview in Beijing. “High prices last year had deterred purchases and led to inventories depletion. Smuggling also hampered exports through illegal channels.”
Comments »The Oil Rally Takes a Break as The IMF Warns on Global Growth
“Oil fell, halting its longest rally in two years, after a warning from theInternational Monetary Fund on the global economy sparked concern that prices have climbed too fast.
Futures slid as much as 1.4 percent in New York after seven days of gains. Oil’s relative strength index signaled that the longest winning streak since January 2010 may have been exaggerated. The world economy is “not out of the danger zone” amid fragile financial systems and rising oil prices, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said yesterday. Prices gained the most in two months last week amid tensions with Iran, OPEC’s second-biggest producer.
“A correction is well overdue,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London who predicts that prices will hold at about current levels this week. Oil’s “relentless push higher could only be explained by pure supply-side fears.”
Oil for April delivery fell as much as $1.53 to $108.24 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $108.53 at 12:40 p.m. London time. The contract gained 1.8 percent to $109.77 on Feb. 24, the highest close since May 3. Prices increased 6.3 percent last week and are 12 percent higher the past year….”
Comments »Here’s The REAL Reason Gasoline Prices Have Been Surging In The US
Joe Weisenthal
In just a matter of a few days, gasoline prices have become a major worry for people pondering what might drag down the U.S. economy.
The essence of the problem is this chart, posted by CFR’s Blake Clayton (via Brad Plumer):
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Given where we are in the year, prices are unusually high. And if trends hold, then the national average will be well over the $4 freakout point sometime this summer.
But whenever the discussion turns to gas and oil, logic tends to die, and people start coming up with all kinds of bizarre explanations for what’s going on — explanations such as the Bernanke’s money printing, Obama’s domestic energy policy, Obama’s foreign policy, speculators, price gougers, and so on.
So we thought it would be a good time to just clear up some misconceptions, and explain what’s really driving the price.
Of course, you can’t start a discussion about gasoline without talking about oil. So let’s begin there.
Read the rest here.
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Paulson Tells Clients Gold Fund Will Top Others
By Kelly Bit – Feb 25, 2012 12:01 AM EST
Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) — Lawrence Kellogg, a founding partner of Levine Kellogg Lehman Schneider & Grossman LLP, talks about client Hugh Culverhouse’s lawsuit against John Paulson’s $23 billion hedge fund. Paulson & Co. was sued by investor Culverhouse over the fund’s reported $468 million losses in Sino-Forest Corp. last year. Culverhouse seeks class-action status on behalf of all investors who lost money in the hedge fund, according to a complaint filed yesterday in federal court in Miami. Kellogg speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager seeking to rebound from record losses in 2011, told investors his Gold Fund will outperform his other strategies over five years, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The billionaire, at a meeting yesterday at the Metropolitan Club in New York, said the metal is the best hedge against currency debasement as countries inject money into their economies, said the person, who attended the event and asked not to be named because the information is private. Paulson also cited gold as a hedge against the euro currency, as a breakup may occur, and an eventual increase in inflation.
The manager told clients his own money comprises 55 percent of the Gold Fund’s $1.2 billion in assets, the person said. The fund, which can buy derivatives and other gold-related securities, declined 11 percent last year after the metal slumped 14 percent in the final four months.
Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may continue to affect bullion in the near term, Paulson, whose firm manages $23 billion, said this month in a year-end letter to investors. The metal serves as the best long-term alternative to paper currencies, he said.
“We remain excited about the outlook for the Paulson Gold Funds over the next few years,” he said in the letter. “We would argue that the potential upside in gold outweighs the potential downside.”
Armel Leslie, a spokesman for New York-based Paulson & Co., declined to comment on the meeting with investors.
Read the rest here.
Comments »Here’s How You’ll Know When Gasoline Prices Are Crushing The Recovery
Joe Weisenthal
Over the past several days, we’ve seen several arguments for why surging gasoline prices won’tharm the economy.
They range from:
- We have more domestic production these days.
- Other commodities aren’t surging, so the inflationary effects are more narrow.
- Plummeting Natural gas prices are saving people a ton of heating, offsetting gas.
- Gas prices aren’t surging at a fast enough clip to freak consumers out.
And so on…
On the other hand, there seems to be a good history of gas prices harming the economy, and all of the above counter-arguments have a certain it’s different this time feel to them.
The pseudonymous blogger New Deal Democrat has a great post looking at what he calls the current “duel” between initial claims, which are falling, and gas prices. He notes that the same duel took place in 2011, and that ultimately, gas prices choked off the recovery, preventing it from really gathering momentum.
So how to know that gas prices are winning this time?
Read the rest here.
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Documentary: The Race to Zero Point
Given our energy crisis, or “non crisis”, i thought this was an interesting documentary to watch. The crazy thing about this documentary is that non of the technologies have seen the light of day as far as consumer products are concerned.
[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKWPht3fU-o 450 300] [youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AuxJH2Mj30 450 300] Comments »What Can We Expect Next for Oil Prices ?
Life After Oil – A Look at the Latest Clean Technology Developments
“Gasoline prices in the U.S. are off on another tear. The national average just went by $3.57 for regular and due to a little problem of several major refineries that serve the U.S.’s East Coast shutting down, here in Northern Virginia we are running 20 to 25 cents a gallon higher than normal. The wisest of the prognosticators say we should seeing circa $4+ a gallon by late spring so the Washington area will likely be seeing circa $4.50. In case you missed it, they are already getting $5 for regular down by the Kennedy Centre. Somebody in Congress is sure to notice this soon.
While waiting to see how the latest settlement of the EU’s debt crisis or any of the on-going Middle East confrontations turn out, it seems like a good time to review a few of the hundreds of announcements of new energy technology that have made in the last few months. The 800 lb. gorilla of course remains cold fusion. While little new has happened in the cold fusion story recently, scientists from around the world continue to report that Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) really do take place and can make heat. So far two companies say they have developed the technology to the point where they can safely make useful amounts of heat and are preparing to bring heat-making devices to market. Unfortunately, both of these companies, for what they say are proprietary reasons, have refused to let outside scientists examine their technology to verify that it can perform as claimed.
This situation may be changing, however, for one of these two companies, a Greece-based organization called Defkalion, say they have arranged for teams of outside investigators to come in later this week and test their device. If this series of tests by outside scientists do take place, we should at least have some sort of independent verification that these “cold fusion” devices are for real, and not a scam as many believe.
In going through the energy-related announcements of technical developments that have been made in the last few months most seem to be related to motor vehicles and other means of transportation. It is clear that the global automobile industry is going through a renaissance so that in a few years the efficiency with which our cars and trucks burn energy will see dramatic improvements. Most of the announcements concern mundane, marginal, improvements – lower weight, less drag, more efficient or different kinds of power trains – but taken together could cut the need for motor fuels dramatically. The problem of course is that there are now about a billion cars and light trucks on the world’s roads that will have to be replaced in order to realize the anticipated savings – a task that will take decades.
It is interesting that announcements concerning new models of electrically-powered light trucks seem to be on the increase. Commercial vehicles are likely to be subjected to more rigorous cost-benefit analyses than personal vehicles so that in the coming era of very high gasoline and diesel prices, electrically powered delivery vehicles may become more common.
Many of the other announcements of new technology developments appear to relate to improvements to batteries or the production of cellulosic ethanol. Each month there are dozens of such announcements, most claiming that a significant breakthrough has occurred. It is impossible to tell which if any of these developments will lead to useful energy-saving technology and one day become commercial products. Most of these new technologies are still at the laboratory level.
The one announcement that seems to be of more than normal interest was made by the University of California, Berkeley where a team of chemists have come up with a catalyst that produces hydrogen from water without heat. Hydrogen, which can be used in fuel cells to generate electricity, power moon rockets, make fertilizer etc. without making any kind of pollution, is nice stuff to have, but it is usually produced from natural gas or electrolysis of water both of which require energy. This new catalyst which uses an artificial version of molybdenite that has been engineered so that every molecule has a discrete catalytically active surface that could one day bring about a sustainable cost-effective hydrogen economy.
Once hydrogen in produced, storing it becomes a problem. To store useful quantities, such as would be necessary for a hydrogen-powered vehicle, expensive high pressures tanks are necessary. For this reason there is considerable research going on to find a way to store hydrogen inside the lattice work of metals. This is all rather exotic technology so it is hard to tell whether a commercially useful product will be available soon.
Another field where dozens of reports of progress are being released every month is that of advanced storage batteries. Here the goal is to get cheaper, higher energy density, faster to charge, longer lasting, batteries that could be used for electric vehicles or to store electricity from intermittent sources such as the sun, or wind. With numerous reputable labs issuing a stream of announcements concerning breakthroughs, again is it is difficult for the non-specialist to assess if real progress towards a commercially viable better battery is being made. The US Secretary of Energy recently announced that he expects substantial progress in the next few years. Let’s hope he’s right….”
Comments »Newt Promises $2.50 Gasoline
The North Slope of Alaska Could Be Awash in Natty Gas
How to Beat Rising Gas Prices
Rising Gas Prices: Not Demand Driven
Strangely, the current run-up in prices comes despite sinking demand in the U.S. “Petrol demand is as low as it’s been since April 1997,” says Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst for the Oil Price Information Service. “People are properly puzzled by the fact that we’re using less gas than we have in years, yet we’re paying more.”
Kloza believes much of the increase is due to speculative money that’s flowed into gasoline futures contracts since the beginning of the year, mostly from hedge funds and large money managers. “We’ve seen about $11 billion of speculative money come in on the long side of gas futures,” he says. “Each of the last three weeks we’ve seen a record net long position being taken.”
Read the rest here.
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