Gold got hammered yesterday and over night. Losses were pared by dip buyers.
Comments »Money Talks; Asia to Negotiate the Largest Deal for Potash
“China and India are set to negotiate the biggest price cut in three years to buy potash as they break a deadlock in meetings with Russian and North American producers that dominate the $24 billion market for the crop nutrient.
Indian talks have begun and China could start in January or February, said Oleg Petrov, marketing director for Russian supplier OAO Uralkali. The countries may pay as little as $430 a ton, down at least 8.5 percent, according to analysts at Credit Agricole Securities USA, Dahlman Rose & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc…”
Comments »IEA Predicts Coal Consumption Will Catch Up to Oil by 2017
“By 2017, coal consumption will nearly equal consumption of oil as the leading source of the world’s energy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global coal consumption will reach 4.32 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2017, just shy of 4.4 billion tons for oil itself. Coal demand will grow everywhere except in the United States, where cheap natural gas will continue to push out coal burning….”
Comments »Black Gold Rallies on U.S. Budget Progress
“Oil rose for a third day in New York on speculation that an agreement will be reached to avert a U.S. budget impasse that would trigger automatic spending cuts and tax increases next year, sapping demand for fuels.
West Texas Intermediate futures gained as much as 0.8 percent following yesterday’s close at the highest level in almost two weeks. In discussions on the so-called fiscal cliff, PresidentBarack Obama made a new offer after House Speaker John Boehner dropped his opposition to raising tax rates for some top earners. Crude supplies shrank last week while fuel stockpiles rose, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow.
“It seems highly like that an acceptable compromise to avert the fiscal cliff will emerge in time,” said Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London.
Crude for January delivery climbed as much as 70 cents to $87.90 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $87.71 at 11:59 a.m. London time. The contract, which expires tomorrow, rose 47 cents to $87.20 yesterday, the highest close since Dec. 5. The more-actively traded February future rose 52 cents to $88.19 a barrel.
Brent for February settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange gained as much as 82 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $108.46 a barrel. The front-month European benchmark contract was at a $20.03 premium to the corresponding WTI future. The spread was $19.97 yesterday, the narrowest since Oct. 19…”
Comments »Gold Manages to Get Out of a Rut to Trade Above $1,700
“Gold rose in New York, gaining with other commodities, on optimism U.S. lawmakers will reach agreement on the budget to avert automatic spending cuts.
President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner are negotiating to avert the so-called fiscal cliff, more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to start in January. Obama yesterday made a new offer that would raise taxes by $1.2 trillion and cut $1.22 trillion in spending, according to a person familiar with the talks. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts, held near a two-month low and crude rose for a third day.
“Gold broke back above the $1,700 level on optimism that a U.S. budget deal will be reached with a weaker dollar helping the move,” Cailey Barker, an analyst at Numis Securities Ltd. in London, said today by e-mail.
Gold for February delivery gained 0.1 percent to $1,699.40 an ounce by 6:55 a.m. on the Comex in New York after gaining as much as 0.4 percent. Spot gold was little-changed at $1,698.45 an ounce in London…”
Comments »Soybean Prices Hit 5 Week Highs on Use by Crushers Goes Up
“Soybeans rose to a five-week high after crushing in the U.S., last year’s biggest shipper, increased in November to the highest level since 2010, adding to signs of stronger demand.
Crushers in the U.S. used 157.3 million bushels last month to make animal feed and cooking oil, the biggest amount since January 2010, data from the National Oilseed Processors Associationtracked by Bloomberg showed. U.S. exporters sold 1.319 million metric tons in the week ended Dec. 6, the most soybeans since Nov. 2010, according to government data.
“Strong demand for U.S. soybeans, both domestic and abroad, remains the main factor supporting prices,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said in a report e-mailed today.
Soybeans for March delivery climbed 0.5 percent to $14.99 a bushel by 6:26 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the price touched $15.0125, the highest for a most-active contract since Nov. 8. The oilseed is heading for a 24 percent gain this year. Corn for March delivery was little changed at $7.3125 a bushel, set for an increase this year of 13 percent.
Wheat for delivery in March rose 0.4 percent to $8.17 a bushel in Chicago, up 25 percent in 2012. In Paris, March- delivery milling wheat was up 0.3 percent at 259.75 euros ($341.91) a ton, heading for a 33 percent increase this year. The Paris contract was at an almost $1.14 per bushel premium to Chicago as of Dec. 14, the widest price difference ever for the two contracts, data compiled by Bloomberg show.”
Comments »Brent and WTI Pare Early Gains as Fiscal Cliff Debates Drag
“Brent crude fell for a second time in three days amid concern that deadlock in U.S. budget talks may threaten to curb economic growth and fuel demand.
The North Sea benchmark dropped as much as 45 cents, reversing earlier gains. European stocks declined for a third day on concern U.S. lawmakers won’t agree to a budget before more than $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff start taking effect in January. The Stoxx Europe 600 (SXXP) slid 0.3 percent to 278.53, while indexes in the U.K.,Germany and France slumped.
“Debt reduction negotiations in the U.S. congress continue to cloud the macro outlook going into 2013,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said in a note. “Oil investors would prefer to wait on the sidelines until this is resolved before placing large bets.”
Brent for February settlement fell 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $107.91 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 12:30 p.m. local time. The January contract settled $1.24 higher at $109.15 when it expired Dec. 14. The European grade was at a premium of $20.70 to WTI, down from $22.42 on Dec. 14.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery was at $86.67 a barrel, down 6 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Front-month prices advanced 0.9 percent for the week ended Dec. 14.”
Comments »Gold Continues to Show Weakness After Fed Easing Announcement
Gold is not tanking, but is down a bit despite last week’s announcement of more bond buying….
Comments »Black Gold Rises on China and U.S. Manufacturing Data
Oil rose in London, heading for a weekly gain as a report signaled manufacturing may expand at a faster pace this month in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer.
“Futures advanced as much as 1 percent and headed for the first weekly increase in three. A preliminary purchasing managers’ index for China by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed a reading of 50.9, higher than a median estimate of 50.8 in a Bloomberg News survey. A figure above 50 indicates an expansion. U.S. industrial production probably climbed 0.3 percent in November, according to a separate Bloomberg survey before Federal Reserve data today.
“China has been showing decent economic progress lately and so has the U.S.,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London who predicts Brent crude will trade from $104 to $114 a barrel this month. “The market is comfortable with supplies, and this will keep volatility down next year.”
Brent for January settlement, which expires today, advanced as much as $1.09 to $109 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $108.88 at 12:42 p.m. London time. The more actively traded February contract gained 97 cents to $107.43. The European benchmark grade, up 1.7 percent this week, was at a premium of $22.14 to West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. marker.
WTI for January delivery rose as much as $1.03 to $86.92 a barrel in electronic trading on theNew York Mercantile Exchange. ”
Comments »10 Things You May Not Know About Gold
“With gold and silver down this morning – following a mysterious vertical plunge last night (once again) – we thought ConvergEx’s Nick Colas’ timely discussion of gold was worthwhile. As he notes, Gold is the ultimate personality test for investors. Some hate it, excoriating its adherents for their lack of faith in human ingenuity – gold has been valuable since before humans could write. And some swear by the yellow metal, in the belief that it is the last vestige of rationality in a world of financial assets manipulated by central banks and opaque trading venues. What gets lost in the wash is that gold is a commodity and can be analyzed as such. On that basis, here is the ‘Top 10’ list of real-world fundamentals for gold.”
Comments »Gold Continues to Be Curiously Weak After the Fed Announcement
Black Gold Falls Over Growth Concerns
“Oil slid from the highest level in a week as U.S. lawmakers disagreed on steps to avert automatic spending cuts and tax increases that take effect on Jan. 1 and threaten to curb economic growth and fuel demand.
Futures dropped as much as 0.6 percent in London after rising the most in three weeks yesterday on a plan by the Federal Reserve to expand its monetary stimulus. Republicans have “some serious differences” with President Barack Obama’s budget proposals, House Speaker John Boehner told reporters in Washington. The Fed’s bond purchases can’t offset full effects of the so-called fiscal cliff, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said.
“Market participants are jittery over the fiscal cliff even though experience shows that agreement won’t come until five minutes before the deadline,” Thorbjorn Bak Jensen, an oil market analyst at Global Risk Management in Middelfart, Denmark, said by telephone. “The Fed is printing money, and a lot of it is already priced in.”
Brent for January settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange declined as much as 65 cents to $108.85 a barrel and was at $108.97 at 12:49 p.m. London time. It climbed 1.4 percent yesterday, or $1.49 a barrel, the most since Nov. 19. The European benchmark crude has advanced 1.5 percent this year.
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 60 cents to $86.17 a barrel in electronic trading. The contract advanced 98 cents to $86.77 yesterday, the highest close since Dec. 5. New York-traded WTI has declined 13 percent in the year.
Brent was at a premium of $22.83 to WTI.”
Comments »Gold Bugs Miffed as the Shiny Metal Falls on Fed Easing
“….After the Fed initially made its announcement, gold spiked.
But the effect is fading. It only took a couple of hours until the spike ended, and tonight gold is tanking some more in early Asian trading.”
Comments »BoA: WTI Could Hit $50 Over the Next Two Years
“U.S. oil prices could sink to $50 a barrel at some point over the next two years, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
But don’t expect a corresponding drop in gas prices.
Merrill analysts expect U.S. oil prices to still average about $90 a barrel over the same time period. Global oil prices meanwhile, which more closely dictate the price of gasoline in the United States, are expected to remain high as growth in global oil supplies lags population growth and economic output.
The drop in U.S. oil prices would likely be temporary, caused by the difficulty in moving huge amounts of new oil from places like North Dakota’s Bakken shale or Texas’ Eagle Ford to market. Already, all the new production has led to a glut of oil in the region.
“No one expected output to grow by a million barrels per day last year,” Francisco Blanche, Merrill’s head of commodity research, said at a press briefing in New York. “No one.”
Comments »Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
“It has been a while since we looked at the Baltic Dry Index, which when normalizing for the excess glut in dry container ship supply (such as right now – 5 years after all the excess supply in the industry – has long been normalized), continues to be one of the best concurrent indicators of global shipping and trade. We look at it today, moments ago it just posted an epic 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008!…”
Comments »Black Gold Jumps Overnight as IEA Increases Demand Forecast
“Brent crude rose to a four-day high after the International Energy Agency increased its oil demand forecast for 2013 and as OPEC ministers met in Vienna to discuss the group’s production limits.
Futures climbed as much as 0.9 percent in London, a third straight advance. Global oil consumption will expand to 90.5 million barrels a day next year, more than previously forecast amid signs of a rebound in Chinese demand, the IEA said in a report today. There is consensus among OPEC members to keep output limits unchanged, Ecuador’s Minister of Non-Renewable Natural ResourcesWilson Pastor told reporters at the group’s headquarters in Vienna today, before closed-door talks began.
“Some economic data has improved,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, said by phone. “I expect the OPEC meeting will result in them trying to bring production closer in line with the ceiling.”
Brent for January settlement added as much as 99 cents to $109 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest since Dec. 6. Futures were at $108.92 as of 12:42 p.m. local time.
West Texas Intermediate for January delivery was at $86.52 a barrel, up 73 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent was at a premium of $22.41 to WTI.
Oil in New York has technical support along an upward- sloping trend line on the daily chart, around $85.73 a barrel today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A sustained drop below this line, which connects the intraday lows of June and November, will signal a so-called downside breakout, when losses tend to accelerate.”
Comments »EIA Forecasts Lower U.S. Crude Imports
“In its monthly Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) published today, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said it expects the net import share of U.S. oil consumption to drop to 40% in 2012, down from 45% a year ago and over 60% in 2005. The EIA forecasts a further drop in imports to 37% of total U.S. consumption in 2013, the first time since 1991 that imports will supply less than 40% of total U.S. consumption.”
Comments »$GS: Rally in Commodities Will Not Be Corny
“Three consecutive years of smaller U.S. corn harvests are driving inventories of the world’s most- consumed grain to a 39-year low and spurring Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to predict that prices will rise near record highs.
Global stockpiles probably will drop 11 percent to 117.64 million metric tons by Oct. 1, according to the average of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be 13.8 percent of what the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects to be used for food, ethanol and livestock feed, the lowest ratio of inventories since 1974. The USDA is scheduled to update its forecasts at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.”
Comments »Black Gold Rebounds From a One Month Low
“Oil rebounded from the lowest close in almost a month in New York as German investor confidence jumped in December on speculation Europe’s largest economy will gather momentum next year.
Futures rose as much as 0.6 percent after falling for a fifth day yesterday, the longest losing streak since October. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations climbed to 6.9 from minus 15.7 in November. U.S. crude inventories declined 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Industrial output in China rose faster than economists estimated, official data showed Dec. 9.
“Oil demand in China is in better shape than it seemed before,” Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by phone. “U.S. crude inventories are expected to drop and increased German investor confidence could extend the upward move.”
West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery gained as much as 51 cents to $86.07 a barrel and was at $86.01 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 12:12 p.m. London time. The contract slid 37 cents to $85.56 yesterday, the lowest close since Nov. 15. Prices have fallen 13 percent this year and are headed for the first annual decrease since 2008.
Brent for January settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange was at $108.11 a barrel, up 78 cents. The European benchmark crude was little changed at a premium of $22.10 to WTI, near the widest in a week.”
Comments »
