“Commodities gained after China’s exports topped estimates and investors speculated Japanwill expand stimulus. Spain’s two-year yield dropped to the lowest in more than two years and the euro strengthened after the country sold more debt than targeted at its first auction this year.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities advanced 1 percent at 7:25 a.m. in New York, with aluminum climbing 1.8 percent and oil rising to the highest in more than three months. The yield on Spain’s two-year notes fell 29 basis points to 2.11 percent, the lowest since November 2010, and the euro gained 0.3 percent to $1.3097. S&P 500 Index futures added 0.3 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose less than 0.1 percent….”

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“Oil switched between gains and losses in London amid signs of rising inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude-consuming nation.

Brent futures were little changed after adding 0.5 percent yesterday. U.S. crude supplies increased 2.4 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. An Energy Department report today may show inventories rose 2 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey of 11 analysts showed. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles also climbed, the API said.

“Inventories will likely rise in the spring,” said Andy Sommer, a senior oil analyst at Axpo Trading AG in Dietikon, Switzerland, who predicts Brent will remain at about $110 this month. “Supply and demand in the market are pretty much balanced, with a slight deficit, but that is a normal seasonal pattern. We see downside risk once we come into the spring.”

Brent for February settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange increased 13 cents to $112.07 a barrel as of 1:06 p.m. local time. The North Sea crude was at a premium of $18.86 to U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate. The spread widened for the first time in four days yesterday to $18.79.

WTI crude for February delivery was at $93.23 a barrel, up 8 cents, in electronic trading on theNew York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at $93.19 on Jan. 7, the highest since Sept. 18. Prices dropped 7.1 percent last year for the first decline in four years.

RSI Resistance…”

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“Iron ore, which posted the biggest quarterly climb on record in the final three months of 2012, may extend gains from a 14-month high as Chinese mills restock, then tumble into a bear market, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

Prices may rise to $170 a ton in the first half on demand in the biggest buyer, before falling to less than $120 as supply expands, Deutsche Bank said in a report. Ore with 62 percent content delivered to Tianjin rose to $158.50 a dry ton yesterday, the highest since October 2011, according to data from the Steel Index Ltd. A drop from $170 to $120 implies a 29 percent fall, more than the 20 percent that typically defines a bear market…”

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“Alcoa Inc. (AA), the largest U.S. aluminum producer, sees global demand growth for the commodity recovering to 7 percent in 2013 as China’s economic rebound drives demand for cans, transport and office buildings.

Aerospace demand will increase by as much as 10 percent as planemakers face record backlogs, the company said yesterday in its fourth-quarter earnings presentation. It also predicted aluminum consumption may climb 19 percent in China’s heavy-truck and trailer industry, while U.S. commercial building and construction expands for the first time in four years….”

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“Demand for palladium, last quarter’s best-performing precious metal, is exceeding supply for a second consecutive year as mine production stagnates while sales by automakers, the biggest buyers, reach record highs.

Consumption will beat production by 511,000 ounces in 2013, or about what the car industry uses every seven weeks, Barclays Plc estimates. Morgan Stanley expects deficits to persist until at least 2017 and predicts a record annual price average in 2014. Palladium will average at least $770 an ounce in the fourth quarter, or 14 percent more than now, according to the three most-accurate forecasters tracked by Bloomberg Rankings over the past two years….”

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“Japanese pension funds, the world’s second-largest pool of retirement assets after the U.S., will more than double their gold holdings in the next two years as the new government pushes for a higher inflation target, according to an adviser to the funds.

Assets held by Japanese pension funds in gold-backed exchange-traded products may expand to 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) by 2015 from less than 45 billion yen at present, said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

New Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pledge to spur inflation to 2 percent and end the yen’s appreciation means Japanese pension funds now have to hedge against rising prices and a currency decline after two decades of stagnation. They’re set to jump into gold after 12 straight years of gains with the precious metal now 14 percent below its all-time high reached 2011. Gold priced in yen reached a record a week ago.

“Bullion’s role as an inflation hedge, long ignored by Japanese fund operators, has come under the spotlight thanks to Abe’s economic policy,” Toshima, who now works as an adviser to pension-fund operators, said in an interview today in Tokyo. “Gold may be a standard asset-class in the portfolio of Japanese pension funds as Abe’s target is realized.”

Pension Funds

Japanese pensions oversee $3.36 trillion….”

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“Gold gained for the first time in four days in London as a weaker dollar and prices near a four- month low increased investor demand.

Bullion slumped to a four-month low on Jan. 4 after minutes from the Federal Reserve showed that policy makers may end $85 billion in monthly bond purchases some time this year, boosting the U.S. Dollar Index to a six-week high. The dollar gauge, a measure against six currencies, fell for a second day today.

“The metal has recovered from recent lows amid dip-buying and a retreat in the U.S. dollar,” analysts at Mumbai-based Kotak Commodity Services Ltd. said today in a report. “However, weighing on the gold price is uncertainty about the Fed’s asset purchase program after the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes.”

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.2 percent to $1,651 an ounce by 9:35 a.m. in London. It reached $1,625.85 on Jan. 4, the lowest since Aug. 21. Gold for February delivery was 0.3 percent higher at $1,651.10 on the Comex in New York.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products were at 2,622.3 metric tons yesterday, about 0.4 percent below the record set Dec. 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Prices gained for a 12th consecutive year in 2012 as central banks from the U.S. to China pledged more steps to spur economic growth…”

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“Gasoline prices, which hit a 2012 low of $3.22 a gallon Dec. 19, are up 8 cents in the past two weeks and will likely continue climbing through April. Experts say the 2013 national average will likely top out at about $3.95 a gallon.

That early winter break you’ve been getting at the gasoline pump? It’s beginning to show signs of cracking.

Gasoline prices remain below $3 a gallon in at least 50% or more outlets in 14 states. But the national average has crept up three cents to $3.30 a gallon the past week and 8 cents since hitting a 2012 low of $3.22 in mid-December.

It’s likely to get worse in the coming weeks. Crude oil prices are up about $10 a gallon the past month, with benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude closing at $93.09 a barrel Friday, finishing the week up 2.5%.,,,”

“Oil declined for a third day in London amid speculation that talks between Sudan and South Sudan may lead to the resumption of crude exports.

Brent futures fell as much as 0.5 percent, while the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate lost as much as 0.7 percent. Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir and South Sudan’s Salva Kiir will meet in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Jan. 13, having agreed last week to set up a demilitarized zone along their border “without further delay.” Morgan Stanley said that Brent will come under pressure as demand eases after winter in the Northern Hemisphere and supplies in Angola, Nigeria and South Sudan are restored.

“The improved supply-demand balance should put marginal downward pressure on Brent prices over the next few months,” Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley inNew York, said in a report. “We assume production will return from South Sudan through 2013.”

Brent for February settlement slipped 50 cents to $110.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:43 p.m. local time. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $18.22 to WTI, in line with the closing level on Jan. 4, the narrowest in more than three months.

Crude for February delivery declined as much as 64 cents to $92.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract advanced to $93.09 on Jan. 4, the highest settlement since Jan. 2….”

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“The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report this morning. US commercial crude inventories decreased by 11.1 million barrels last week, bringing the total US commercial crude inventory to 359.9 million barrels, still well above the upper limit of the five-year range for this time of the year. Dow Jones had a consensus forecast for a drop of just 1.3 million barrels…”

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“SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Futures losses in gold and other precious metals moderated Friday after U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased at a slightly lower pace than forecast last month.

However, gold and silver both traded down 1% in a second-day reaction to signs that the Federal Reserve could bring quantitative easing to an end this year.

Gold for February delivery GCG3 -2.03% fell $24.20, or 1.4%, to $1,650.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

That carried over from a $14.20 loss suffered in the prior session. At its lows Friday, gold had fallen more than $40, retracing below $1,630 an ounce….”

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“Gold dropped to a four-month low in New York and headed for the longest run of weekly losses since 2004 after Federal Reserve minutes showed policy makers may end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases this year. Silver declined to the lowest since August.

Minutes released yesterday showed a divide among Fed members on how long the purchases should last. Participants who provided estimates were “approximately evenly divided” between those who said it would be appropriate to end the purchases around mid-2013 and those who said they should continue beyond that date. Gold futures fell below their 200-day moving average and are down for a sixth week, the longest run since May 2004.

“That there could be a lack of further quantitative easing measures has prompted a bit of profit-taking,” James Moore, an analyst at FastMarkets Ltd. in London, said today by phone. “It’s a knee-jerk reaction. There are still ultra-low interest rates,” which will support gold, he said.

Gold for February delivery slid 2.3 percent to $1,636.10 an ounce by 7:45 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices reached $1,626, the lowest since Aug. 21, and are down 1.2 percent this week. Gold for immediate delivery was down 1.7 percent at $1,636.08 in London.

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 10.2 metric tons yesterday, the most since May, to 2,620.8 tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show….”

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“Oil dropped for a second day, erasing most of its weekly gain in London, after U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled the winding down of a stimulus program this year in the world’s biggest crude user.

Brent futures dropped as much as 1.6 percent, trimming its weekly increase to 0.2 percent. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they will probably end their $85 billion monthly bond purchases sometime in 2013, according to minutes of its latest meeting released yesterday. The U.S. unemployment rate may have held at 7.7 percent, the lowest since December 2008, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of a Labor Department report today.

“The U.S. is at a dangerous point where it could declare victory too early,” said Guy Wolf, a strategist at London-based commodities broker Marex Spectron Group Ltd., who predicts Brent will trade from $100 to $125 this quarter. “The risks to growth estimates in the U.S. in the second half are quite high. Removal of monetary stimulus combined with a fiscal tightening could be disastrous.”

Brent for February settlement slid as much as $1.76 to $110.38 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It traded for $110.82 at 12:34 p.m. local time.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell as much as $1.40 to $91.52 a barrel on theNew York Mercantile Exchange. The graded has added 1.2 percent this week. Brent was $18.97 more than WTI, compared with $19.27 yesterday….”

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“Crude slid for the first time in three days in New York on speculation that this week’s gains were unjustified as the U.S. budget deal is insufficient to ensure growth in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country.

Futures lost as much as 0.7 percent after rallying 2.6 percent in the past two sessions as U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to undo automatic tax increases and spending cuts that threatened the nation’s economic recovery. The accord won’t reduce deficits enough to avoid a sovereign-rating downgrade, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday. Technical indicators showed crude may have risen too quickly, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’re seeing short-term jitters on the back of Moody’s comments of a potential downgrade in the pipeline if things are not improved in the coming months,” said Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. in Middelfart, Denmark.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped as much as 63 cents to $92.49 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.65 at 11:38 a.m. inLondon. The contract yesterday climbed 1.4 percent to $93.12 a barrel, the highest settlement for a contract nearest to expiration since Sept. 18.

Brent for February settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange fell as much as 79 cents to $111.68. Prices advanced 3.5 percent in 2012, a fourth annual gain. The North Sea crude was $19.33 a barrel more than WTI.

Trading volume in WTI was 30 percent below the 100-day average for the time of day, while Brent was 8 percent above…”

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“Gold fell in London with stocks and oil after reaching a two-week high yesterday and as a stronger dollar curbed demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

Gold rose to the highest since since Dec. 18 yesterday after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill averting automatic spending cuts and tax increases, heading off the so-called fiscal cliff. TheU.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts, rose to the highest since Dec. 11 today, on speculation policy makers will struggle to reach an agreement to raise the U.S. debt limit….”

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“Natural gas futures in New York tumbled the most in more than three years on forecasts of moderating temperatures that may reduce demand for the power- plant fuel.

Gas dropped as much as 9 percent after Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda,Maryland, said colder-than-average weather in most of the lower-48 states this week would give way to above-normal temperatures from Jan. 7 through Jan. 11. The low in New York on Jan. 9 may be 38 degrees Fahrenheit (3 Celsius), 11 higher than usual, according to AccuWeather Inc.

“We’re going to see some warm weather across the primary gas-consuming regions,” saidGene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “As we get into the new year without signs of sustained cold weather, the fundamental picture is going to force us lower.”

Natural gas for February delivery fell 12.5 cents, or 3.7 percent, to $3.226 per million British thermal units at 10:14 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The intraday percentage decline was the most since Sept. 11, 2009. The futures have risen 8 percent from a year ago. Trading volume was up 48 percent from the 100-day average at 10:15 a.m.

Gas slid to $3.05 in electronic trading, the lowest price since Sept. 26, before rebounding. A 900-contract sell order at 7:52 p.m. yesterday caused the “scary” drop, Drew Wozniak, vice president of market research and analysis at ICAP Energy LLC in Louisville, Kentucky, said in a note to clients today….”

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“Industrial metals rose in London, paced by copper and nickel, after U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of higher taxes and cuts in government spending.

The U.S. House approved a measure undoing income-tax increases for most households in the country, the world’s second-largest copper consumer after China. President Barack Obamasaid he would sign the bill into law. Equities climbed in Asia and Europe, Treasuries retreated for a second day and raw materials from crude oil to sugar strengthened.

“The automatic spending cuts seem to have been avoided,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail today. “That’s probably behind this morning’s higher risk appetite, also supported by firm Asian equity markets.”

Copper for delivery in three months climbed 2 percent to $8,091 a metric ton by 9:34 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Prices jumped as much as 2.5 percent, the most since Nov. 19. Copper for delivery in March increased 0.9 percent to $3.684 a pound on the Comex in New York. Markets in China are closed for a holiday until Jan. 3.

Prices advanced 4.4 percent last year on the LME, the third annual gain in four, helped by forecasts for supply of the metal used in pipes and wiring to lag behind demand. Copper inventories tracked by the exchange declined 14 percent in 2012, the third straight year of contraction.

Copper stockpiles climbed for a 17th session to 320,500 tons, remaining at the highest level since Feb. 6, LME figures showed today. Orders to withdraw the metal from warehouses were little changed at 51,600 tons.

Nickel for delivery in three months surged as much as 2.9 percent on the LME, leading gains among the exchange’s six main metals. Lead reached $2,380.25 a ton, the highest price since September 2011. Aluminum, zinc and tin climbed…”

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Can you say $45? Currently WTI is down $0.62 at $90.18

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“Gold advanced, poised for a 12th annual gain, as U.S. lawmakers struggled to reach a budget deal before automatic tax increases and spending cuts start to take effect from tomorrow, boosting demand for a haven.

Gold for immediate delivery advanced as much as 0.3 percent to $1,660.60 an ounce and was at $1,660.10 at 9:35 a.m. in Singapore. Prices have gained 6.2 percent this year as central banks from Europe to the U.S. to China pledged additional stimulus to spur economic growth.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rejected the latest Republican offer to resolve the crisis as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell reached out to Vice President Joe Biden to try to break the impasse. Congress is working to avert more than $600 billion in tax rises and spending cuts, known as the fiscal cliff, and a failure risks a recession, the Congressional Budget Office has warned. The Senate will resume its session today.

“There’s a murky cloud over the outlook in the short term that’s purely being driven by the U.S. fiscal deadlock,” said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. “Once that’s resolved, there’s better clarity in the market, gold has more upside than downside risk.”

Gold, down 6.3 percent since September and set for the biggest quarterly drop since 2004, may climb to $2,000 next year, the median of 49 estimates in a Bloomberg survey published on Dec. 18 showed. Morgan Stanley said Dec. 6 that bullion will be among next year’s best-performing commodities. Prices may peak in 2013 as the U.S. recovers, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts…”

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“India, the world’s third-largest coal user, cut imports of the fuel by 13 percent to 11.6 million metric tons in November, shipping data show.

Adani Enterprises Ltd. (ADE), Bhatia International Ltd., Tata Power Co. (TPWR) and Steel Authority of India Ltd. were among buyers who received 9.25 million metric tons of steam coal and 2.33 million tons of the coking variety, according to Interocean Group, a New Delhi-based ship broker that provided the information. October shipments were 13.3 million tons…”

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