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Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

Analysts See 20% Upside in Old Man Buffet’s Outfit

“Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) rarely gets analyst research calls from Wall St. research and independent research shops. When it does, many investors tend to pick apart the data hoping to find one more tidbit of data that they did not know about Warren Buffett and one of the greatest growth stories of the 20th century. The call is right on the heels of Warren Buffett telling the board that he has finished his prostate cancer treatment…”

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Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker is Still Calling for 1167 S&P or Bust on Global Slowdown and Weak Earnings

“In a massive presentation on his year-end predictions, Parker explains why:

  • Earnings growth is very poor.
  • Earnings are volatile, and that’s also ominous.
  • Historically, extreme rates (both high and low) are bearish. Our current sub-zero interest rates are bad.
  • Historic price-to-earnings ratios at this time of year suggest a downturn. “Investors are overpaying for cyclical earnings!” he exclaims, adding, “most industry groups appear to be over-earning right now.”

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Dow 17,000 by Next Year? Why Not, says Wharton’s Siegel

“The Dow Jones Industrial Average could conceivably hit 17,000 next year, said Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel.

Siegel in February said the popular stock-market measure could hit 15,000 by 2013, as despite gains over the past few years, historical valuations show stock prices have room to rise.

The index closed Monday at 13553.10.

“Going to the 15,000 level, which a few months ago people were very skeptical of that, we’re talking about the end of 2013. We only need to go up 10 percent from current levels. I’m not saying it’s a slam-dunk. Nothing’s a slam-dunk in the market. Odds are 3-to-2-to-1 on that,” Siegel told CNBC.

“The 17,000, when I first gave the prediction late last March, I said it was a 50-50 proposition. But I think that that’s a goal that is very, very attainable given the market circumstances,” Siegel added.

“That’s what the statistics show, that there was almost a 50 percent chance on past historical valuations and periods that the market would reach that 17,000 by the end of next year.”

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Bob Janjuah is Close to Getting Stopped Out on His Bearish Call

“Everyone agrees that the Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE and the ECB’s OMT plans are historic.  Both plans involve buying tremendous amounts of debt on the markets in efforts to suppress borrowing costs and ultimately stimulate economies.

Nomura contributing strategist Bob Janjuah, however, thinks that history won’t remember these actions very kindly. From his latest note to clients:

“We can now clearly see that the only solutions that are offered by the Fed and the ECB are the extension of the same failed policies that got us into our financial and economic despair in the first place. Namely MORE debt, MORE bubbles and MORE monetary debasement. When future historians look back for the day that the West lost its status as global economic superpower, and for the day that the West lost its aspirational leadership in terms of sound economic and prudent financial system management, I feel that September 2012 may be seen as a significant pivot point.”

This criticism is not unexpected by those who follow Janjuah.

However, his note also revisits his big call of the year: that stocks would rise into the fall, and then plummet by 20% to 25%.

In short, Janjuah had said if the S&P 500 rallied to 1,450, his call was off.

From his note today:”

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Moody’s Downgrades EU Outlook to Negative

“(NEW YORK) – Moody’s on Monday lowered the European Union’s long-term issuer rating outlook from stable to negative, saying the move reflected credit risks of the bloc’s key budget contributors.”

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S&P Cuts Sharp to Junk Status

Sharp Corp. (6753)’s credit rating was cut to speculative grade by Standard & Poor’s as Foxconn Technology Group said it was still renegotiating a planned investment. The stock fell 13 percent, and Sharp found a defect in some smartphone displays.

Standard & Poor’s lowered its long-term rating on the Osaka-based electronics maker by two levels to BB+, the highest non-investment grade, saying it suffers from weak cash flow and deteriorating market conditions. Sharp, which has the biggest percentage decline on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) this year, was kept on a negative ratings watch.”

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