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I predicted this three weeks ago.
6/26/2012: Federal Republic Of Germany: EJR lowered AA- to A+ (Neg.) (S&P: AAA) (3413Z GR)
Synopsis: German chancellor Angela Merkel continues to create tension with EU member states by resisting calls for EU bonds (shared liabs.), money printing calls and for her pushing for fiscal controls and the seniority of bailout funding. Germay is likely to be outvoted by other ECB members and therefore will have greater prospective exposure. Watch for the EFSF and the ESM morphing into banks (thereby depressing eventual recoveries) and a rise in the number of euros. The fallout from a likely Greek exit needs to be monitored. We are cutting to ” A+ “
Says JPMorgan could resume share buybacks in 2012
* Cuts JPMorgan’s Q2 EPS estimates to $0.60 from $0.75
* Cuts Morgan Stanley’s 2012 EPS estimates to $0.56 from $1.04
* Sees muted capital markets activity hurting Morgan Stanley earnings
June 26 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs added JPMorgan Chase & Co to its America’s conviction buy list, saying the U.S. bank’s capital position and earnings power can offset its recent hedging loss of at least $2 billion.
Goldman downgraded Morgan Stanley to “neutral” from “buy,” and removed the stock from its conviction buy list, saying earnings could be hurt by muted capital markets activity.
While Goldman sees value in Morgan Stanley’s shares at current depressed levels, it expects better returns at JPMorgan.
The 15 percent decline in JPMorgan share price since the largest U.S. lender by assets announced trading losses at its chief investment office has been “drastic,” given the unit’s 5 percent average earnings per share contribution, Goldman said.Comments »
Dahlman Rose analyst Charles Neivert said the large corn crop expected this year is already priced in to the fertilizers’ stock prices.
If that large yield occurs, the shares have limited downside, he noted, and should climb with the fall fertilizer application. But if weather or other disruptions make for a smaller harvest than the large planting suggests, then fertilizer shares could climb even higher.
“Either situation produces a positive outcome and that is the time to own the shares,” Neivert wrote.Comments »
“Citigroup Inc. (C), the lender whose credit rating was cut by Moody’s Investors Service to the lowest since its 1998 creation, led Wall Street banks in dismissing downgrades and urged investors to seek alternative analyses.
Moody’s two-grade cut of Citigroup’s ratings was unwarranted, arbitrary and failed to recognize the lender’s financial strength, the New York-based bank said in a statement. Investors shouldn’t rely on “opaque” credit ratings, it said.”Comments »
“Some of the U.K.’s biggest banks may be downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service as part of a broad assessment of the global financial industry, Sky News reported, citing no one.
Moody’s may publish its assessment of banks including HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc (BARC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) after U.S. markets close later today, Sky reported on its website.”Comments »
“ING Groep NV (INGA) and KBC Groep NV were among banks in Belgium and the Netherlands cut by Moody’s Investors Service on concern that the recession, regional debt crisis and dependence on wholesale funds makes them vulnerable.
Long-term debt ratings at ING, Rabobank Nederland, ABN AMRO Bank NV and LeasePlan Corporation NV were lowered by two grades, and SNS Bank NV received a one-level cut, Moody’s said in a statement today. KBC, Belgium’s biggest bank and insurer, was also lowered two grades, the ratings company said.”Comments »
“Fitch just announced that it cut the long-term issuer default ratings on 18 Spanish banks.
From Fitch: “In particular, Spain is expected to remain in recession through the remainder of this year and 2013 compared to the previous expectation that the economy would benefit from a mild recovery in 2013. The institutions affected by today’s rating actions are purely domestic banks. Thus, their revenue generation capacity, risk profile, funding access and cost of funding are highly sensitive to the evolution of Spain’s economy and its housing market.”
Here’s an excerpt from the press release.”Comments »
“SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Marketing on Facebook influences consumer behavior and leads to increased purchases for the brands that leverage the social-networking site, consulting companycomScore said in a report released Tuesday.
“The Power of Like 2: How Social Media Works,” looks at paid advertising on Facebook as well as earned media exposure– meaning mentions of the brand made by Facebook users in status updates and the like. It is based on the experiences of large brands such as Best Buy, Starbucks and Target.
The report follows up on a July 2011 paper, “The Power of Like: How Brands Reach and Influence Fans Through Social Media Marketing.”Comments »