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Goodnight Sunshine: Germany Cutting Solar-power Subsidies – They are expensive and inefficient

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Germany once prided itself on being the “photovoltaic world champion”, doling out generous subsidies—totaling more than $130 billion, according to research from Germany’s Ruhr University—to citizens to invest in solar energy. But now the German government is vowing to cut the subsidies sooner than planned and to phase out support over the next five years. What went wrong?

Subsidizing green technology is affordable only if it is done in tiny, tokenistic amounts. Using the government’s generous subsidies, Germans installed 7.5 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity last year, more than double what the government had deemed “acceptable.” It is estimated that this increase alone will lead to a $260 hike in the average consumer’s annual power bill.

According to Der Spiegel, even members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s staff are now describing the policy as a massive money pit. Philipp Rösler, Germany’s minister of economics and technology, has called the spiraling solar subsidies a “threat to the economy.”

Germany’s enthusiasm for solar power is understandable. We could satisfy all of the world’s energy needs for an entire year if we could capture just one hour of the sun’s energy. Even with the inefficiency of current PV technology, we could meet the entire globe’s energy demand with solar panels by covering 250,000 square kilometers (155,342 square miles), about 2.6 percent of the Sahara Desert.

Unfortunately, Germany—like most of the world—is not as sunny as the Sahara. And, while sunlight is free, panels and installation are not. Solar power is at least four times more costly than energy produced by fossil fuels. It also has the distinct disadvantage of not working at night, when much electricity is consumed.

In the words of the German Association of Physicists, “solar energy cannot replace any additional power plants.” On short, overcast winter days, Germany’s 1.1 million solar-power systems can generate no electricity at all. The country is then forced to import considerable amounts of electricity from nuclear power plants in France and the Czech Republic.

Indeed, despite the massive investment, solar power accounts for only about 0.3 percent of Germany’s total energy. This is one of the key reasons why Germans now pay the second-highest price for electricity in the developed world (exceeded only by Denmark, which aims to be the “world wind-energy champion”). Germans pay three times more than their American counterparts.

Moreover, this sizeable investment does remarkably little to counter global warming. Even with unrealistically generous assumptions, the unimpressive net effect is that solar power reduces Germany’s CO2 emissions by roughly 8 million metric tons—or about 1 percent – for the next 20 years. To put it another way: By the end of the century, Germany’s $130 billion solar panel subsidies will have postponed temperature increases by 23 hours.

Using solar, Germany is paying about $1,000 per ton of CO2 reduced. The current CO2 price in Europe is $8. Germany could have cut 131 times as much CO2 for the same price. Instead, the Germans are wasting more than 99 cents of every euro that they plow into solar panels.

It gets worse: Because Germany is part of the European Union Emissions Trading System, the actual effect of extra solar panels in Germany leads to no CO2 reductions, because total emissions are already capped. Instead, the Germans simply allow other parts of the EU to emit more CO2. Germany’s solar panels have only made it cheaper for Portugal or Greece to use coal.

Read the rest here.

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Bullish Hedge Funds Hike their Bets in 2012 Rally

(Reuters) – Hedge funds are cranking up their bets in equities and credit in 2012’s buoyant markets in the belief that the euro zone, U.S. and Chinese economies will fare better than many were fearing last year.

Many funds think the European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operations (LTRO), which flooded markets with 489 billion euros ($644 billion) of cheap cash in December and provide more this month, are a turning point in propping up the region’s battered banks.

They are also betting that China, which is facing a fifth successive quarter of slowing economic growth, will experience a so-called ‘soft landing’, while the U.S., which saw its fastest growth in one-and-a-half years in the fourth quarter, is firmly on the recovery path.

The average hedge fund rose 2.6 percent in January but this was behind the S&P’s .SPX 4.5 percent gain, according to Hedge Fund Research, and some funds missed out on the rally after taking a cautious stance towards the end of a turbulent 2011.

Many managers are now hiking borrowing to make their favorite bets punchier, or shifting the balance between their long and shorts to help them profit from market gains.

“What we’re hearing from a number of managers is that the appetite for risk has risen,” said Frank Frecentese, global head of hedge fund investments at Citi Private Bank.

“Their view on Europe is that the possibility of an extreme left-tail event has lessened, the U.S. is doing moderately better than expected and the risk of China … heading for a hard landing has lessened.”

Read the rest here.

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Chart of the Day: Dow Rallies after 30 Percent Declines

The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally and in response to several requests, all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today’s chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began. The difference between today’s chart and last week’s chart is that for last week’s chart a rally was defined as an advance that followed a 15% correction (i.e. a major correction). For today’s chart, however, a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market). As today’s chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.5 years. It is also interesting to note that the duration and magnitude of each rally correlated fairly well with the linear regression line (gray upward sloping line). As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude.

Go here for the chart.

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Transistor Made Using a Single Atom May Help Beat Moore’s Law

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — Scientists have taken a first early step toward escaping the limits of a technological principle called Moore’s Law by creating a working transistor using a single phosphorus atom.

The atom was etched into a silicon bed with “gates” to control electrical flow and metallic contacts to apply voltage, researchers reported in the journal Nature Nanotechnology. It is the first such device to be precisely positioned using a repeatable technology, they said, and may one day help ease the way toward creation of a so-called quantum computer that would be significantly smaller and faster than existing technology.

Moore’s law states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months to two years, and it’s predicted to reach its limit with existing technology in 2020. Cutting the size of a transistor to a single atom may defeat that concept.

“We really decided 10 years ago to start this program to try and make single-atom devices as fast as we could, and beat that law,” said Michelle Simmons, director of ARC Center for Quantum Computation and Communication Technology at the University of New South Wales, Australia. “So here we are in 2012, and we’ve made a single-atom transistor roughly 8 to 10 years ahead of where the industry is going to be.”

Moore’s Law is named for Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Santa Clara, California-based Intel Corp., the world’s largest chipmaker. He first described the phenomenon in a 1965 report that was later cited by others with his name attached to it.

Read the rest here.

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Japan Slowly Wakes up to Doomsday Debt Risk

TOKYO, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Capital flight, soaring borrowing costs, tanking currency and stocks and a central bank forced to pump vast amounts of cash into local banks — that is what Japan may have to contend with if it fails to tackle its snowballing debt.

Not long ago such doomsday scenarios would be dismissed in Tokyo as fantasies of ill-informed foreigners sitting on loss-making bets “shorting Japan”.

Today this is what is on bureaucrats’ minds in Japan’s centre of political and economic power.

“It’s scary when you think what could happen if there’s triple-selling of bonds, stocks and the yen. The chance of this happening is bigger than markets think,” says a senior official.

Leaning back in a leather sofa in his office, the official appears relaxed, but the way he wastes no time answering questions about a debt meltdown, suggests it is an all too familiar topic.

Read the rest here.

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WATCH: Yosemite Firefall – Yosemite Waterfall Turns to Lava

Fiery illusion: Mid-February sunsets in Yosemite National Park lights a natural firefall from Glacier Point illuminating one of the park's lesser-known waterfalls so precisely that it resembles molten lavaFiery illusion: Mid-February sunsets in Yosemite National Park lights a natural firefall from Glacier Point illuminating one of the park’s lesser-known waterfalls so precisely that it resembles molten lava

Captured: The waterfall called Horsetail Fall, geographically situated perfectly to capture the February sunset, was first recorded in color in 1973 by the late renowned outdoors photographer Galen RowellCaptured: The waterfall called Horsetail Fall, geographically situated perfectly to capture the February sunset, was first recorded in color in 1973 by the late renowned outdoors photographer Galen Rowell

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When Will This Gas Price Chart Finally Reverse Itself?

Joe Weisenthal

As we predicted early last week, everyone is talking about gas prices today.

It’s the how new meme: Will gas prices be the thing that suffocates this economy?

We’ll pass on making a guess.

But we thought it’d be a good time to update one of our favorite charts: The S&P 500 divided by the cost of an average gallon of gasoline.

chart

FRED

It’s kind of beautiful.

Read the rest, and see an even better chart, here.

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‘The Greatest Anomaly in Finance:’ Understanding and Exploiting the Outperformance of Low-Beta Stocks

If I told you that there is an easy-to-exploit market anomaly that has enabled investors to consistently and substantially outperform the market with less risk for more than four decades, your first instinct might be to roll your eyes. After all, the unending quest to improve returns while lowering risk has yielded countless methods with initial promise that
subsequently collapse under further scrutiny.

Not so fast. What if I could show that this market anomaly is well-documented in the academic literature – that it is not just some esoteric theory? And that now some newly created ETFs provide a convenient way for advisors to access this strategy?

You might listen a little closer.

Read the rest here.

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This Is STILL The Most Glaring Anomaly In The Market

Joe Weisenthal

We’ve run this chart several times this year, and it still holds.

It’s a one-year look at the S&P 500 (red line) vs. the yield on the 10-year (blue line).

chart

FRED

As you can see, the S&P and the 10-year yield moved closely up until about last December, when the stock market started taking off, and the yield stayed low.

Read the rest here.

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Scientists Prepare Test-Tube Burger

By Clive Cookson in Vancouver

The world’s first test-tube hamburger, created in a Dutch laboratory by growing muscle fibres from bovine stem cells, will be ready to grill in October, scientists believe.

“I am planning to ask Heston Blumenthal [the celebrity chef] to cook it,” Mark Post, leader of the artificial meat project at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, told the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Vancouver.

Researchers believe that meat grown in factories, rather than on farms, will be a more sustainable and less environmentally harmful source of food. Live cattle and pigs are only 15 per cent efficient at converting vegetable proteins to meat from the grass and cereals they eat.

“If we can raise the efficiency from 15 to 50 per cent by growing meat in the lab, that would be a tremendous leap forward,” Professor Post said.

Starting with bovine stem cells, the Dutch researchers have grown muscle fibres up to 3cm long and 0.5mm thick. The fibres are tethered and exercised as they grow, like real muscles, by bending and stretching in the culture dishes. They feed on a broth of vegetable proteins and other nutrients, equivalent to the grass or grain diet of cattle.

At present the fibres are a pallid yellowish-pink colour, rather than the red of raw ground beef, because they do not contain blood, but Prof Post plans to improve their appearance.

Read the rest here.

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World Beta: Obama’s Budget Proposal Will Drive Fewer Companies to Pay Dividends

It is often very difficult to determine how geopolitical events will play out in markets.  However, there are some cases where a structural change will have a very logical influence on a market and a substantial impact on investment strategies and outcomes.

Today there is news that in his recent budget proposal Obama outlines taxing dividends for top bracket earners as ordinary income up to 40% from the current 15%.  How will this impact the investment landscape?

Read the rest here.

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Could Twitter Predict the Stock Market?

By Chris Taylor

NEW YORK | Thu Feb 16, 2012 4:43pm EST

(Reuters) – When Richard Peterson first started meeting with hedge funds about eight years ago to pitch using social media to predict market movement, investment managers looked at him as if he had just arrived from outer space.

Back then, what he was pitching them seemed pretty insane. Peterson, managing director of Santa Monica-based MarketPsych, said that social media can be mined for data about what people are thinking and feeling. And that, in turn, could translate into powerful investment ideas.

“People would say to me, ‘You’re crazy,'” says Peterson, who did postdoctoral studies in neuroeconomics at Stanford University. “‘You’re a psychiatrist telling me that funds should analyze social media? Come on.’ They didn’t think I was serious.”

They’re taking him seriously now. Usage of social media like Twitter has exploded in recent years, giving analysts a real-time reflection of popular sentiment. As a result, MarketPsych serves up reams of data to hedge funds (which swear Peterson to secrecy) and research firms like Titan Trading Analytics. Peterson even plans to roll out a hedge fund of his own.

“We’re champing at the bit to start trading,” says Peterson, who says his models work best in times of high volatility. “We’ve run simulations to see what would have happened by using our data in recent years, and we would’ve made 30 percent annually.”

Given the amount of irrelevant nonsense on Twitter, it’s natural to be highly skeptical of the strategy. The vast numbers of spambots, penny-stock touts and Justin Bieber fanatics aren’t helpful in generating any investment gains.

But think through the logic, and analyzing Twitter data isn’t such a bizarre idea.

A basic premise of behavioral economics is that the markets aren’t perfectly rational machines, but are expressions of human emotions like greed and fear. If you agree with that premise, and are looking for an immediate gauge of those human sentiments, then Twitter is one of the greatest tools ever invented.

“The importance of social media aggregation, and how that might influence the price of a stock, cannot be ignored,” said John Coulter, CEO of Atlanta-based Titan Trading Analytics, which uses MarketPsych’s data. “We’ve chosen to use it as one of many indicators, providing traders with alerts on events and by flagging socially expressed emotions which haven’t been picked up upon by traditional news outlets.”

The trick is how to crunch that data effectively and make some sense of the 250 million tweets generated every day. Peterson, for example, filters the data using 1,500 different factors, culling keywords to track global moods. His is essentially a contrarian take on the markets: If the public is overly bullish, it’s time to be cautious. If it is extremely gloomy, on the other hand, it might be time to snap up a bargain.

In that sense, it’s much like how some investment pros look at the American Association of Individual Investors’ sentiment readings as a contrarian indicator (link.reuters.com/dap66s).

But while those respondents answer a survey for a once-a-week reading, social-media sentiment analysis is immediate and ongoing.

Indeed, the Twitter-analysis trend seems to be just gearing up. Cayman-based Derwent Capital Absolute Return Fund Ltd., dubbed the first ‘Twitter Hedge Fund’ with $40 million in seed capital, was reported to have beaten the S&P by more than three percentage points in its first month of trading last July. More recent results were not available.

“It won’t make you a millionaire overnight, but it does work,” says Richard Gardner, president and CEO of Scottsdale, Arizona-based Modulus Financial Engineering, which amasses historic Twitter data for hedge funds and research firms to crunch. “The markets are moved by emotion, and I think this is going to be the future of trading. You can actually see global moods moving up and down in real time.”

Much of the excitement around Twitter trading stems from a paper by academics Johan Bollen and Huina Mao of Indiana University, and Xiao-Jun Zeng of the University of Manchester. The report found that gauging the investing public’s mood can be a startlingly predictive mechanism for the stock market. “We find an accuracy of 87.6 percent in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the Dow Jones industrial average,” the authors wrote.

Read the rest here.

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Iran Stops Oil Sales to UK, French Companies: Ministry

Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state’s lifeblood, oil.

“Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped … we will sell our oil to new customers,” spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the ministry of petroleum website.

The European Union in January decided to stop importing crude from Iran from July 1 over its disputed nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building bombs. Iran denies this.

Iran’s oil minister said on Feb. 4 that the Islamic state would cut its oil exports to “some” European countries. The European Commission said last week that the bloc would not be short of oil if Iran stopped crude exports, as they have enough in stock to meet their needs for around 120 days.

Industry sources told Reuters on Feb. 16 that Iran’s top oil buyers in Europe were making substantial cuts in supply months in advance of European Union sanctions, reducing flows to the continent in March by more than a third – or over 300,000 barrels daily.

France’s Total [TOTF.PA  41.68    0.40  (+0.97%)   ] has already stopped buying Iran’s crude, which is subject to fresh EU embargoes. Market sources said Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.L  2293.00    -1.00  (-0.04%)   ] has scaled back sharply. Among European nations, debt-ridden Greece is most exposed to Iranian oil disruption.

Read the rest here.

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Simple Index Funds May Be Complicating and Destabilizing the Markets

Jason Zweig

Index funds are often hailed for their low fees, solid performance and transparency.

Could they also be destabilizing the markets—and undermining the very diversification they have long promised?

Recently, leading investing experts—including Rodney Sullivan, editor of the Financial Analysts Journal, consultant James Xiong of Morningstar Investment Management and Jeffrey Wurgler, a finance professor at New York University—have been warning that index funds could destabilize the financial markets.

The rise of trading in index funds, these researchers say, is causing stocks to move more tightly together than ever before—as if they “have joined a new school of fish,” as Prof. Wurgler puts it. That is reducing the power of diversification and could make booms and busts more likely and more extreme.

Unlike conventional funds run by highly paid stock-pickers who seek to buy the best securities and avoid the worst, index funds—including most exchange-traded funds, or ETFs—effectively buy and hold all the securities in a market benchmark such as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.

According to James Bianco of Bianco Research, 2011 was a particularly rotten year for stock pickers: Only 17% of more than 4,000 funds that invest in large U.S. stocks beat their benchmark. In most years, fewer than half do.

Considering that index funds charge annual fees about one-10th of those levied by actively managed funds, it isn’t any wonder indexing has become a money magnet. A decade ago, 278 index mutual funds and 119 exchange-traded funds held $347 billion, or about 16% of all assets in U.S. stock funds. Today, according to Morningstar, 336 index funds and 1,148 ETFs hold $1.24 trillion, or fully one-third of all the money in U.S. stock funds.

That worries some analysts. “Markets work best when people think and act independently, not all together,” Mr. Sullivan says. When investors add money to an index fund, it generally will buy every security in the market that it tracks—hundreds, sometimes thousands at a time, regardless of price. When investors pull money out, the index fund has to sell across the board.

“These index-trading behaviors,” Mr. Sullivan says, “could interact with some unexpected event to cause significant and outsize consequences.” (Disclosure: Mr. Sullivan and I coedited a book about the value investor Benjamin Graham that was published in 2010.)

Analyzing how closely the returns of U.S. stocks moved up or down together, Mr. Sullivan found that this correlation has roughly quadrupled since the mid-1990s—coinciding with the rise of index-fund trading.

Read the rest here.

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Avoiding the Siren Song of Emotions: Notes from the Wealth Management Conference

What do Homer’s Odyssey, Boombustology, and “financialese” have to do with wealth management? Quite a lot, it turns out.

Let’s start with the Odyssey. In his presentation on utilizing behavioral finance in the management of client portfolios at the CFA Institute Wealth Management 2012 conference, Greg B. Davies, global head of behavioral and quantitative investment philosophy at Barclays Wealth, explored the concept of what he called “behavioralizing finance.”

“This is not behavioral finance versus classical finance,” he said. “We don’t believe that classical finance is something that should be thrown away. What we believe is that classical finance has not gone far enough; it has not considered what it truly means to be human. It has not considered certain aspects of our intuitive responses to the investment journey in order to make us better investors.”

Davies argued that there is a fundamental disconnect between helping clients invest for the long term and the fact that we live perpetually in the short term, or what he called “the zone of anxiety,” where we are buffeted financially and emotionally by uncertainty. (See “What Should I Do? Translating Long-Term Trends into Action” published in Compass in October 2011.)

Behavioral finance, he told attendees, “recognizes that decisions are always made in the zone of anxiety, but the end goal is always long term and what we have to do is help the decision maker attain that end goal.” One way to do that is to purchase emotional comfort — even if it comes at a cost. (This is further explained in a recent book Davies coauthored with Arnaud de Servigny titled Behavioral Investment Management: An Efficient Alternative to Modern Portfolio. “Successfully implementing one’s optimal portfolio requires emotional comfort and shying away from risky assets and sitting on cash is one way of acquiring this comfort,” they write. “However . . . it can be a very expensive way of doing so because it means that your portfolio will have dramatically lower risk and return than is optimal.”)

Read the rest here.

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