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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

OI MISSED ON REVENUES

Owens-Illinois beats by $0.12, misses on revs  (19.46 +0.31)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.84 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.72; revenues rose 10.2% year/year to $1.86 bln vs the $1.93 bln consensus.

Commenting on the Company’s outlook for the fourth quarter of 2011, Stroucken said, “The global macroeconomic outlook for the second half of this year has softened. As a result, we expect our fourth quarter shipments will be flat or slightly up compared with prior year levels. Average prices will be up from 2010 levels, but we expect continued cost inflation. Considering the unfavorable foreign currency exchange rate trends we have seen since mid-year, we expect fourth quarter 2011 adjusted earnings to approximate the prior year fourth quarter results. We expect full year 2011 free cash flow to be between $200 and $250 million, which is unchanged from the range provided in the second quarter. Future free cash flow will be used for further debt reduction until our leverage ratio is more comfortably within our target range.” Stroucken continued, “O-I has incurred significant cost inflation in 2011 related to higher raw material, labor and energy prices, which has negatively impacted our margins. Looking to 2012, we will re-focus on our value over volume strategy to repair our margins. Our business that is covered by long-term customer contracts includes pass-through formulas that allow for higher pricing next year as a result of this inflation. For business not covered by pass-through formulas, we expect to increase prices in 2012 where possible to pass along both unrecovered current year and prospective 2012 inflation. As a result of this inflation, depending on the country or region, price increases for these annual agreements can be expected on average to range between high single digit and even double digit percentages in 2012.”

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ARRS MISSED EPS

Arris reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS below consensus, revs in-line  (10.92 -0.26)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.21 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate consensus of $0.21; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $274.4 mln. Co issues mixed guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.18-0.22 vs. $0.24 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q4 revs of $270-290 mln vs. $289.12 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Order backlog at the end of the third quarter 2011 was $155.3 million as compared to $119.6 million and $154.2 million at the end of the third quarter 2010 and the second quarter 2011, respectively. The Company’s book-to-bill ratio in the third quarter 2011 was 1.00 as compared to the third quarter 2010 of 0.80 and the second quarter 2011 of 0.91.

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SFLY REDUCES GUIDANCE

Shutterfly correction: sees Q4 EPS of $0.98-1.03 vs $1.06 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $270.5-275.5 mln vs $273.30 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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ACOM MISSED EPS

Ancestry.com prelim $0.40 vs $0.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $103.1 mln vs $103.3 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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STATEMENT OF EU HEADS OF STATE

STATEMENT OF EU HEADS OF STATE OR GOVERNMENT

At today’s meeting, in line with paragraph 7 of the European Council conclusions of 23 October concerning relations between the EU and the Euro area, the members of the European Council were informed by President Van Rompuy about the state of preparations of the Euro Summit that will take place later in the day

They discussed the situation and underlined their common resolve to do their utmost to overcome the crisis and to help face in a spirit of solidarity the challenges confronting the European Union and the Euro area.

They welcomed the consensus on measures to restore confidence in the banking sector reached by the Council (ECOFIN) on 22 October. On this basis, they agreed the text annexed to this statement subject to agreement on the measures indicated in this text forming part of a broader package, including the decisions to be taken by today’s meeting of the Euro Summit. The Council (ECOFIN) will finalise the work and adopt the necessary follow up measures.

Brussels, 26 October 2011

EN

1Consensus on banking package

1. Measures for restoring confidence in the banking sector (banking package) are urgently needed and are necessary in the context of strengthening prudential control of the EU banking sector. These measures should address:

a. The need to ensure the medium-term funding of banks, in order to avoid a credit crunch and to safeguard the flow of credit to the real economy, and to coordinate measures to achieve this.

b. The need to enhance the quality and quantity of capital of banks to withstand shocks and to demonstrate this enhancement in a reliable and harmonised way.

Term funding

2. Guarantees on bank liabilities would be required to provide more direct support for banks in accessing term funding (short-term funding being available at the ECB and relevant national central banks), where appropriate. This is also an essential part of the strategy to limit deleveraging actions.

3. A simple repetition of the 2008 experience with full national discretion in the setting-up of liquidity schemes may not provide a satisfactory solution under current market conditions. Therefore a truly coordinated approach at EU-level is needed regarding entry criteria, pricing and conditions. The Commission should urgently explore together with the EBA, EIB, ECB the options for achieving this objective and report to the EFC.

ANNEX

EN

ANNEX

2

Capitalisation of banks

4. Capital target: There is broad agreement on requiring a significantly higher capital ratio of 9 % of the highest quality capital and after accounting for market valuation of sovereign debt exposures, both as of 30 September 2011, to create a temporary buffer, which is justified by the exceptional circumstances. This quantitative capital target will have to be attained by 30 June 2012, based on plans agreed with national supervisors and coordinated by EBA. This prudent valuation would not affect the relevant financial reporting rules. National supervisory authorities, under the auspices of the EBA, must ensure that banks’ plans to strengthen capital do not lead to excessive deleveraging, including maintaining the credit flow to the real economy and taking into account current exposure levels of the group including their subsidiaries in all Member States, cognisant of the need to avoid undue pressure on credit extension in host countries or on sovereign debt markets.

5. Financing of capital increase: Banks should first use private sources of capital, including through restructuring and conversion of debt to equity instruments. Banks should be subject to constraints regarding the distribution of dividends and bonus payments until the target has been attained. If necessary, national governments should provide support , and if this support is not available, recapitalisation should be funded via a loan from the EFSF in the case of Eurozone countries.

State Aid

6. Any form of public support, whether at a national or EU-level, will be subject to the conditionality of the current special state aid crisis framework, which the Commission has indicated will be applied with the necessary proportionality in view of the systemic character of the crisis.

ANNEX

EN

3

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Whitney Tilson is Now Buying NFLX

After getting crushed on his short position, Whitney is now buying the stock.

This is what he had to say:

“it’s been frustrating to see our original investment thesis validated, yet not profit from it. It certainly highlights the importance of getting the timing right and maintaining your conviction even when the market moves against you. The core of our short thesis was always Netflix’s high valuation. In light of the stock’s collapse, we now think it’s cheap and today established a small long position. We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it.”

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Today’s Biggest Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 QCOR 20.11 2,070,000,000
2 MTW 16.99 1,140,000,000
3 PNRA 14.71 3,460,000,000
4 FSLR 13.64 3,730,000,000
5 FFIV 13.15 7,170,000,000
6 ALR 13.02 1,820,000,000
7 ULTI 12.54 1,340,000,000
8 ESRX 12.24 18,780,000,000
9 MDP 11.69 1,120,000,000
10 BIIB 10.99 25,920,000,000
11 ONXX 10.88 2,290,000,000
12 ITRI 10.79 1,320,000,000
13 SLAB 9.89 1,610,000,000
14 VLO 9.66 12,500,000,000
15 MHS 8.73 18,100,000,000
16 AVX 8.65 2,180,000,000
17 XCO 8.54 2,460,000,000
18 NJ 7.51 11,140,000,000
19 MIM 7.19 1,370,000,000
20 ARW 7.02 3,810,000,000
21 HAR 6.79 2,930,000,000
22 SSRI 6.04 1,450,000,000
23 MCK 5.95 18,750,000,000
24 GTLS 5.48 1,560,000,000
25 PCS 5.38 3,290,000,000
26 RHI 5.24 3,660,000,000
27 FMER 5.18 1,440,000,000
28 RFMD 5.07 1,990,000,000
29 SLM 5.06 6,290,000,000
30 CHE 5.05 1,140,000,000
31 ATI 5.05 4,280,000,000
32 TEX 4.97 1,520,000,000
33 AIXG 4.94 1,390,000,000
34 MOLX 4.76 4,090,000,000
35 CNO 4.60 1,410,000,000
36 TSS 4.60 3,600,000,000
37 OC 4.59 3,070,000,000
38 MWW 4.50 1,060,000,000
39 ACAS 4.40 2,490,000,000
40 GEN 4.32 2,150,000,000
41 BA 4.31 47,220,000,000
42 IAG 4.02 7,550,000,000
43 CIG 3.79 10,450,000,000
44 NSU 3.73 1,010,000,000
45 LFC 3.72 65,290,000,000
46 ENDP 3.71 3,270,000,000
47 CRR 3.64 2,660,000,000
48 ADVS 3.64 1,360,000,000
49 AUQ 3.63 1,670,000,000
50 CQP 3.62 2,470,000,000
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No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 HGSI -21.76 2,430,000,000
2 DV -17.49 3,150,000,000
3 RSH -12.40 1,330,000,000
4 MASI -12.05 1,340,000,000
5 AMZN -11.34 103,110,000,000
6 BMS -10.48 3,260,000,000
7 GMCR -10.12 9,910,000,000
8 TMO -9.26 20,330,000,000
9 S -9.07 8,080,000,000
10 CHRW -8.40 12,380,000,000
11 JNY -7.76 1,030,000,000
12 TRN -7.61 2,200,000,000
13 YOKU -7.18 2,380,000,000
14 BIN -7.13 2,780,000,000
15 SINA -6.16 5,820,000,000
16 VSI -5.76 1,140,000,000
17 RIMM -5.52 11,600,000,000
18 HTLD -5.46 1,280,000,000
19 F -5.31 47,230,000,000
20 ESI -5.08 1,770,000,000
21 AVY -5.06 2,780,000,000
22 HCC -5.01 3,270,000,000
23 OPEN -4.47 1,210,000,000
24 VECO -4.25 1,050,000,000
25 OMI -4.24 1,970,000,000
26 POL -4.14 1,030,000,000
27 STRA -3.96 1,040,000,000
28 ARE -3.92 4,260,000,000
29 ACOM -3.85 1,090,000,000
30 LMT -3.75 26,290,000,000
31 FTNT -3.73 3,290,000,000
32 AGN -3.73 26,530,000,000
33 BCR -3.67 7,600,000,000
34 HCBK -3.65 2,980,000,000
35 PPO -3.64 2,300,000,000
36 SFLY -3.47 1,650,000,000
37 AUY -3.41 11,570,000,000
38 WAG -3.37 30,470,000,000
39 ADP -3.25 25,500,000,000
40 UAN -3.24 1,830,000,000
41 PCLN -3.14 25,140,000,000
42 BKI -3.14 1,120,000,000
43 SAVE -3.13 1,090,000,000
44 DPS -3.10 8,540,000,000
45 CYOU -3.07 1,560,000,000
46 RENN -3.02 2,340,000,000
47 VRTX -3.00 9,020,000,000
48 WAT -2.93 7,210,000,000
49 QLIK -2.89 2,270,000,000
50 MAKO -2.87 1,590,000,000

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FLASH: JOHN CORZINE SUCKS

MF Global is down 30% on news they are looking for strategic alternatives.

I smell bankruptcy.

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Today’s Top Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change Industry Market Cap
1 DGX 11.40 Medical Laboratories & Research 8,070,000,000
2 CNC 10.35 Health Care Plans 1,460,000,000
3 FTNT 9.21 Computer Peripherals 2,930,000,000
4 LII 8.69 Appliances 1,560,000,000
5 TTWO 7.23 Multimedia & Graphics Software 1,250,000,000
6 ILMN 7.21 Biotechnology 3,570,000,000
7 UA 7.14 Textile – Apparel Clothing 3,940,000,000
8 ALB 7.02 Synthetics 4,460,000,000
9 BP 4.76 Major Integrated Oil & Gas 132,080,000,000
10 OCN 4.27 Savings & Loans 1,370,000,000
11 NUS 4.11 Personal Products 2,870,000,000
12 NG 4.07 Gold 1,870,000,000
13 SLW 4.03 Silver 11,040,000,000
14 AG 3.90 Silver 1,710,000,000
15 RCII 3.85 Rental & Leasing Services 1,990,000,000
16 AH 3.84 Health Care Plans 2,250,000,000
17 EGO 3.83 Gold 9,590,000,000
18 HMY 3.70 Gold 5,340,000,000
19 MFN 3.35 Industrial Metals & Minerals 1,140,000,000
20 SHW 3.25 Specialty Retail, Other 8,670,000,000
21 ANV 3.19 Gold 3,220,000,000
22 GG 3.14 Gold 37,350,000,000
23 RGLD 3.13 Gold 3,740,000,000
24 SLT 3.13 Copper 32,230,000,000
25 CHS 2.96 Apparel Stores 2,150,000,000

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No. Ticker % Change Industry Market Cap
1 NFLX -35.23 Specialty Retail, Other 6,240,000,000
2 FSLR -20.24 Solar 5,000,000,000
3 HFC -12.71 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 3,460,000,000
4 RMD -12.15 Medical Appliances & Equipment 4,800,000,000
5 CIEN -11.14 Communication Equipment 1,330,000,000
6 GMCR -10.76 Processed & Packaged Goods 11,290,000,000
7 HBHC -9.91 Regional – Southeast Banks 2,820,000,000
8 JDSU -9.46 Communication Equipment 2,550,000,000
9 SLM -9.20 Credit Services 7,220,000,000
10 HANS -9.19 Beverages – Soft Drinks 8,150,000,000
11 CVI -8.25 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 2,210,000,000
12 YNDX -8.17 Internet Information Providers 8,890,000,000
13 WNR -8.12 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 1,450,000,000
14 WSH -7.99 Insurance Brokers 7,030,000,000
15 MPC -7.98 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 12,780,000,000
16 X -7.71 Metal Fabrication 3,570,000,000
17 TROW -7.11 Asset Management 14,350,000,000
18 GNW -6.93 Life Insurance 3,120,000,000
19 DMND -6.82 Processed & Packaged Goods 1,510,000,000
20 WDR -6.82 Asset Management 2,360,000,000
21 POL -6.73 Synthetics 1,130,000,000
22 STM -6.70 Semiconductor – Broad Line 6,600,000,000
23 ZION -6.56 Regional – Pacific Banks 3,310,000,000
24 TLAB -6.40 Communication Equipment 1,710,000,000
25 SWFT -6.34 Trucks & Other Vehicles 1,320,000,000
26 PANL -6.31 Computer Peripherals 2,350,000,000
27 TEX -6.26 Farm & Construction Machinery 1,640,000,000
28 HGSI -6.19 Biotechnology 2,590,000,000
29 VLO -6.19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 13,300,000,000
30 SCS -6.06 Business Equipment 1,050,000,000
31 YOKU -5.99 Chinese Burritos 2,570,000,000
32 HDB -5.99 Foreign Regional Banks 24,900,000,000
33 AOL -5.97 Internet Service Providers 1,610,000,000
34 PHM -5.95 Residential Construction 1,990,000,000
35 MWW -5.87 Advertising Agencies 1,130,000,000
36 ALV -5.86 Auto Parts 5,270,000,000
37 LNC -5.83 Life Insurance 6,190,000,000
38 MMM -5.73 Conglomerates 58,310,000,000
39 DNR -5.68 Independent Oil & Gas 6,520,000,000
40 REGN -5.68 Biotechnology 5,560,000,000
41 CTCM -5.67 Broadcasting – TV 1,890,000,000
42 DFS -5.64 Credit Services 13,440,000,000
43 TSO -5.59 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 3,700,000,000
44 SOHU -5.54 Chinese Burritos 2,340,000,000
45 LXK -5.53 Computer Peripherals 2,480,000,000
46 CPHD -5.49 Scientific & Technical 2,430,000,000
47 ATI -5.36 Industrial Metals & Minerals 4,560,000,000
48 WFR -5.28 Solar 1,440,000,000
49 LAZ -5.25 Asset Management 2,940,000,000
50 ACI -5.25 Industrial Metals & Minerals 3,750,000,000

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