“China’s economy may have expanded about 8.4 percent in the first quarter, the least since the first half of 2009, according to an estimate given by an official 10 days before the data are due.
Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRZ), cited “relevant China research institutes’ initial figures” for the estimate and predicted a gain of about 3.5 percent in consumer prices. He spoke today during a panel discussion at the Boao Forum for Asia, a gathering of government and business leaders on China’s tropical island ofHainan.
The growth figure compares with the 8.3 percent medianestimate of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The fifth straight slowdown in quarterly growth will underscore concerns that weakness in the Chinese economy is set to limit a global expansion already capped by Europe’s austerity measures.
“The final number will be very close to 8.4 percent,” Lu Ting, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America Corp. inHong Kong, said in an interview in Boao. “They can get a relatively accurate forecast or estimate of first-quarter GDP.”
Premier Wen Jiabao pared this year’s expansion target to 7.5 percent from an 8 percent goal in place since 2005 on March 5, part of government plans to tilt growth toward consumption and away from exports. In the fourth quarter of last year, growth was 8.9 percent….”
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