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A Chinese Copper Disaster in the Making

Chinese banks are in the business of extending loans to people against copper inventories. It gets better.

FT Alphaville said it best:

…buy copper on credit, take delivery of said copper, sell said copper at full price to market, then post the returns in higher yielding assets until the due date for the full payment of the letter of credit arrives — in most cases some 180 days later.

Get it? In other words, the Chinese are extending credit for the explicit purposes of commodity speculation, not so much different than our banks blowing up the housing market with hot money to homeless guys in need of a Mcmansion. Moreover, this sort of fucked up banking is not exclusive to just copper. Basically, ALL COMMODITIES CAN BE USED AS COLLATERAL for cold hard cash. Essentially, people have 180 days to pay for the copper once it’s delivered into the country—“inventory financing.”

Now you know why copper demand is so high. However, the billion dollar question is: where is all that “inventory financing” money going? And, what will happen to said investments should the price of copper begin to unwind and trade lower?

1 year chart- copper

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Standard & Poors March 15 ratings actions

Prestige Auto Receivables Trust 2011-1 $221.62 Million Notes Assigned Preliminary Ratings 15-Mar-2011
11:33 EST

Rating On South Davis Recreation District, UT’s 2004 Bonds Raised To ‘AA-‘ On Strong Financial And Population Trends 15-Mar-2011
11:23 EST

Six Ratings From Three CDOs Lowered; 14 Ratings Affirmed 15-Mar-2011
11:21 EST

Preliminary Ratings Assigned To Bank of Scotland’s U.K. RMBS Transaction Headingley RMBS 2011-1 15-Mar-2011
11:17 EST

Western Refining Inc.’s $325 Million Term Loan B Rated ‘B’ (Recovery Rating: 3) 15-Mar-2011
11:16 EST

Florida Housing Finance Corp. 2011 Bonds Rated ‘AA+’ 15-Mar-2011
11:00 EST

Grupo ACP Inversiones y Desarrollo Rated ‘BB-‘; Outlook Stable 15-Mar-2011
10:43 EST

Taylor, MI’s GO Debt Rating Lowered To ‘BBB’ Due To Weakened Finances 15-Mar-2011
10:39 EST

Esterline Technologies Corp. Rating Raised To ‘BB+’ From ‘BB’ On Improving Financials; Outlook Is Stable 15-Mar-2011
10:14 EST

Alberto-Culver Co. ‘BBB’ Rating Remains On CreditWatch Positive Pending Close Of Unilever Transaction 15-Mar-2011
09:54 EST

North Spencer County Elementary School Building Corp., IN’s Series 2011 Bonds ‘AA+’; Outlook Stable 15-Mar-2011
09:31 EST

Ratings Assigned In Dutch RMBS Transaction STORM 2011-II 15-Mar-2011
07:26 EST

BNP PARIBAS ZAO Upgraded To ‘BBB’ On Very Likely Group Support, “Core” Status; Outlook Stable; Affirmed At ‘A-3/ruAAA’ 15-Mar-2011
07:17 EST

Ratings Assigned In Dutch RMBS Transaction STORM 2011-I 15-Mar-2011
07:16 EST

S&P Resolves Counterparty Related CreditWatch Placement Of Asti Finance’s Class A Notes 15-Mar-2011
07:04 EST

Kazakh Agrarian Credit Corp. Proposed KZT3 Billion Bond Rated ‘BB/kzA+’ 15-Mar-2011
05:58 EST

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American Express Reports Write Off Rate of 3.8%

American Express reports Feb U.S. card metrics (43.29 -0.61)

Co reports Feb U.S. Managed Net write-off rate of 3.8% vs 3.8% in Jan. Co reports Feb loans 30 days past due was 2.0% vs 2.1% in Jan

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URS Corp. (URS)

Gotta fix nuclear plants? URS. Gotta close Nuclear plants? URS.

Book $50
Cash 7.00
Debt .16
12x eps
.4x sales
Price 44.23

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Quick Headlines In Tech, Media, and Business

MSFT Internet Explorer 9,

MSFT kills the ZUNE

iPad 2 ships in 4-5 weeks

Google Refreshes Street View Application

More consumers getting news from IBC and or online outlets

Full Article

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Raw Commodities Are Getting Hammered

Stocks are not the only asset class getting poleaxed, so are raw commodities.

Uranium -15%
Biofuels -9%
Palladium -7%
Tin -6%
Sugar -6%
Gasoline -5%
Cotton -4%
Coffee -3%

Data provided by The PPT

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Sectors Outperforming The S&P This Morning

Sectors outperforming the S&P as the indices extend the morning rebound include: Silver SLV, Steel SLX, Materials XLB, Ag/Chem MOO, Networking IGN, Housing XHB, Retail XRT, Casino BJK

Minor new rebound highs for Dow -220 and S&P -25 — Nasdaq Comp -59 has not yet confirmed the new high -Update

initial intraday resistance noted earlier for the S&P is in the 1271/1275 area.

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