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Monthly Archives: November 2011

CHINA BUBBLE POPPED? Businesses Feel the Pinch with Tightened Lending

GUANGZHOU, China — David Huan had big dreams last spring for his business, a factory in central China that turns out picture frames ranging from glossy wood to the gilded and baroque: new equipment, expanded production and an additional 400 to 600 workers atop the 400 he already employs.

Colin Beere for The New York Times

Helen Huang, the owner of a company producing chrome-plated paperweights, turned to a neighborhood lending pool last year.

The demand was there, he said on a recent afternoon. But his bankers weren’t. They balked at lending him money to buy equipment — and today his export-oriented business is about where it was six months ago.

“I feel like I’m walking in place,” he said.

He has lots of company. While many businesses in the United States struggle to stay afloat and workers collect unemployment checks, China has the opposite problem: an economy, pumped up by expansive lending by state-controlled banks, that is growing too fast to keep inflation and speculation in check.

Beijing’s solution has been to create an artificial shortage of credit. The central government has set stringent though undisclosed limits on how much money each bank can lend, clamped down on real estate speculation by limiting the number of mortgages allowed for each citizen and begun cracking down on many forms of semilegal and illegal lending. After months of steady tightening, the controls have finally begun to bite into inflation, business growth, real estate prices and lending.

Overall lending by Chinese banks jumped 32.5 percent in 2009 in inflation-adjusted terms. That growth slowed to 13.3 percent in 2010 and then 7.3 percent in the first three quarter of this year. Lending to small businesses has grown several percentage points faster each year. But there are so many of them and they are expanding so quickly that competition for these loans is especially fierce and difficult, said Nicholas R. Lardy, an economist at the Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The policy makers’ principal goal is to tamp down inflation, which has played a repeated role in triggering social unrest, including during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. Despite a goal of limiting inflation to no more than 4 percent a year, prices have stubbornly remained about 6 percent higher this autumn than a year ago for consumers based on official gauges — and up to twice that by the estimate of many private economists.

The worst of the credit crunch this year has compelled at least a few business people to flee the country or even commit suicide. They did so after borrowing money at usurious rates of up to 5 percent a month — an 80 percent annual rate — from loan sharks or neighborhood lending pools and then finding that their speculative investments with the money did not pay off.

But the credit crunch is far broader. In more than a dozen recent interviews at the Canton Fair here, the country’s largest export trade fair, every business owner or sales manager described increasing difficulties in borrowing money — as well as strategies that banks and borrowers alike are using to cushion the impact of the new lending restrictions.

Some banks are requiring lenders to personally guarantee corporate loans and put up considerably more land and factory equipment as collateral. Others lend money only if borrower agrees to redeposit up to half of the loan in the same bank at a much lower interest rate. The practical effect is that the borrower pays a much higher interest rate than the official, heavily regulated interest rate for loans, usually 7 or 8 percent.

“If the bank lends you 1 million, they ask for 500,000 back as a deposit,” said Elaine Yan, the import and export manager at the Wuxi Zontai International Corporation, a trading company specializing in brightly colored shower curtains and bath mats. The company has opted not to borrow money at all, meeting its modest financing needs through retained profits.

Daunted by such terms, Helen Huang, the owner of a company producing chrome-plated paperweights, turned to a neighborhood lending pool last year. The $3.1 million she borrowed helped finance a $7.9 million land purchase so her company, the Shijiazhuang Harmony Import and Export Company, could build a new factory.

READ THE REST AT THE NY TIMES HERE 

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Most Active Put / Call Option Trades This Morning

-CALLS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        1/19/13           7.5000        9876            1.2900      dn 0.1100 
AEM        1/19/13          65.0000        4000            2.8500      up 0.4300 
CTXS       11/19/11          75.0000        3669            1.5800      dn 1.0200 
YHOO       11/19/11          16.0000        2568            0.4400      up 0.0300 
ACI        1/21/12          27.0000        2500            0.1500      up 0.0100 
JPM        11/11/11          36.0000        2161            0.1100      dn 0.0400 
LEN        11/19/11          18.0000        1773            0.4100      up 0.1100 
CSCO       11/19/11          19.0000        1691            0.3000      up 0.0100 
AAPL       2/18/12         500.0000        1638            2.6000      dn 0.0200 
NPSP       12/17/11           6.0000        1551            0.5000      dn 0.0500 

 -PUTS- 
OPTION    EXP.DATE       STRIKE PRC.     VOLUME        LAST S/PRC.    NET CHANGE 
BAC        12/17/11           5.0000       10024            0.1600      up 0.0000 
GLD        6/16/12         110.0000        5010            0.9500      dn 0.1000 
BAC        11/11/11           6.0000        2193            0.0800      up 0.0000 
WM         11/19/11          31.0000        1549            0.8000      up 0.0500 
AMGN       11/19/11          57.5000        1197            1.0000      dn 1.7500 
GS         11/19/11         100.0000        1149            2.0000      dn 0.1000 
BAC        1/21/12           5.0000        1006            0.2900      up 0.0000 
ATVI       11/19/11          13.0000        1000            0.2000      up 0.0100 
BAC        5/19/12           6.0000         953            1.0000      up 0.0400 
BAC        1/21/12           6.0000         950            0.5800      up 0.0300 

 -VOLUME- 
 CALLS      PUTS           TOTAL 
444123    434473        878596

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Cameco reports in line earnings, strong expectations, so shares tank

I need to read all the fine print, but frankly this is getting stupid. Unless they’re hiding fraud in their numbers, this company will crush all those who doubt her.

Cameco (TSX: CCO.TO – News) (NYSE: CCJ – News) today reported its consolidated financial and operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2011 in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

“Cameco performed well during the quarter despite the prevailing economic uncertainty. We realized higher prices on our uranium sales and achieved higher sales volumes resulting in higher adjusted earnings,” said president and CEO Tim Gitzel. “With sales commitments of over 300 million pounds, we are positioned to continue delivering solid financial performance while preparing our assets for the growth we expect in the nuclear industry.

“During the quarter, we undertook several initiatives to advance our strategy to double annual uranium production by 2018 and add value for our shareholders. We signed a memorandum of agreement (MOA) with our Inkai partner to increase total production to 5.2 million pounds annually. We also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) to process all Cigar Lake ore at McClean Lake mill, which we expect will result in a significant reduction in the operating cost.

“We believe in the long-term fundamentals of the nuclear industry and will continue to pursue our strategy in a disciplined manner to ensure we can respond appropriately to evolving market conditions.”

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Jefferies Reduces European Sovereign Debt Exposure by 49%

Jefferies Reduces Gross Holdings of Sovereign Debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain by 49.5% in Today’s Trading in Europe 9:18 am ET 11/07/2011 – Business Wire NEW YORK & LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nov. 7, 2011– Jefferies announced today that its trading positions in the sovereign securities of the nations of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain have been reduced by an aggregate of approximately $1.1 billion long and $1.1 billion short. This represents a 49.5% reduction in Jefferies’ gross holdings of these securities since the close of business Friday and resulted in no meaningful profit or loss on today’s trading activity or our remaining positions, which continue to be substantially matched by country and maturity. Jefferies’ current net exposure to these sovereign securities is currently $59 million, or 1.7% of shareholder equity, with negligible market or credit risk. “We undertook this reduction in our holdings solely to demonstrate the liquid nature of this market-making trading book,” said Richard Handler, Chairman and CEO, and Brian Friedman, Chairman of the Executive Committee of Jefferies, in a joint statement. “We will now resume our normal market-making activities and serve our clients around the world.

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A close look at Chinese poverty

By Daniel Gross

Teng, who didn’t complete primary school, earns 70 renminbi (about $12 per day) working at a brick factory in Luan, a nearby city. His marriage prospects are poor, because he doesn’t earn much money. And he can’t leave for a higher-paying job on the coast because he must take care of his parents.

To reach this village in the Qinling Mountains, you drive 90 minutes outside bustling Xi’an on a deserted toll road. In China, the infrastructure frequently precedes the traffic. Turning off the highway, you climb into the mountains on a well-paved road that climbs around gorges, past a shallow, rushing river where water spills rapidly over large boulders, past a temple complex nestled in a small valley. The small bus beeped loudly every time it rounded a switchback. After 45 minutes, we pulled off the main road into the village — about 40 yards of paved road flanked by a couple dozen buildings with terra cotta roof tiles, and braids of drying corn nailed to the wall.

Here, 28 families scratch out a meager existence. The children have left for schools in larger towns, and the able-bodied who can seek work in the cities. The rest go into the mountains to gather herbs, grow some soybeans and corn, or subsist on extremely meager pensions of about80 renminbi ($15) per month.

Here’s some breaking news for the China bulls: Despite the gleaming towers of Shanghai, the monumental glass-and-steel sprawl of Beijing, the massive airports and high-speed rail networks, this is a very poor country. The urban China of bourgeois living, brand names and chic restaurants is real and growing. But the denizens of modern China are only 20 years removed from the poverty of Ta Ping. And a huge chunk of the country remains trapped in it.

“China is in the process of developing from a poor country to a rich country,” says Wen Hai, a senior professor of economics at Beijing University. “On the one hand you have the people on the coasts, and then you see the backwater.”

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Congress looks to give more guarantees to farmers

WASHINGTON (AP) — Farm-state lawmakers are moving to create a whole new subsidy that would protect farmers when their revenue drops — an unprecedented program that critics say could pay billions of dollars to farmers now enjoying record-high crop prices.

The subsidy, free insurance that would cover farmers’ “shallow crop losses” before their paid insurance kicks in, has been pushed by corn and soybean farmers who could benefit the most from the program. It would replace for the most part several other subsidy programs, including direct payments preferred by Southern rice and cotton farmers. Growers get the direct payments regardless of crop yields or prices. They don’t even have to farm.

The income insurance plan has a diverse group of opponents — environmental groups that have long argued against farm subsidies, conservatives who say the plan won’t save the government much and even one of the nation’s largest farm groups. The American Farm Bureau Federation says the beefed-up insurance could encourage farmers to make riskier decisions and drive up the price of land.

Top Republicans and Democrats on the House and Senate Agriculture Committees are looking at folding the new subsidy into a farm bill proposal they are quietly crafting as part of their charge by the deficit-cutting congressional supercommittee to cut farm spending.

The four lawmakers — Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.; Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kansas; House Agriculture Chairman Frank Lucas, R-Okla. and Rep. Collin Peterson, D-Minn. — have said they will shave $23 billion from farm and food aid programs over the next decade. The new revenue insurance program would be considered part of their effort to achieve that goal.

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Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

Upgrades

AYI – Acuity Brands coverage assumed with a Buy at ThinkEquity

HD – Home Depot upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

CVS – CVS Caremark upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

TOLL – Toll Brothers upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

GRPN – Groupon initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company

PIR – Pier 1 Imports initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo

PAY – VeriFone initiated with a Buy at Citigroup

IACI – InterActiveCorp resumed with a Hold at Needham

WES – Western Gas Partners upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse

LL – Lumber Liquidators upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman

HERO – Hercules Offshore resumed with a Hold at Dahlman Rose

MYL – Mylan Labs initiated with a Market Perform at Leerink Swann

FLR – Fluor upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Lazard

UDR – UDR upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott

Downgrades

K – Kellogg downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair

NEE – NextEra Energy downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies

CLF – Cliffs Natural Resources target lowered to $115 at FBR Capital

ADM – Archer-Daniels initiated with a Neutral at Ticonderoga

FLT – FleetCor initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup

DHI – DR Horton downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup

APH – Amphenol downgraded to Sell at Ticonderoga

GRPN – Groupon initiated with a Neutral at Susquehanna

WXS – Wright Express initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup

AGU – Agrium target lowered to $109 at Ticonderoga

IBI – Interline Brands downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair

CLC – CLARCOR downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T

VE – Veolia Environnement downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan

ALU – Alcatel-Lucent downgraded to Sell from Reduce at WestLB

SEB – Spectra Energy LP downgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan

SD – SandRidge Energy downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm

MED – Medifast downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity

SNN – Smith & Nephew downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse

VRTX – Vertex Pharm downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital

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