Oil companies stalking Libya?

The obvious question now that Tripoli is under rebel occupation is: how long until oil flow resumes?

Oil companies are understood to be preparing to move back into the North African country, which used to pump 1.6 million barrels per day before the uprising against Muammar Gaddafi’s government began six months ago.

Exports could resume within six months, analysts have said. According to a report from Exclusive Analysis, the forecasting firm, many pumping stations in the east of the country have been sabotaged by pro-Gaddafi forces and will need to be repaired, as will the export terminal at Brega.

While fighting continues, and predictions that the Gaddafi regime are over seem premature, the international community – and multinational companies – are looking to revive their interests in the country, should the situation stabilize.

That itself is in doubt for the time being. As Alia Moubayed, head of research for the Middle East and North Africa at Barclays Capital, told CNBC on Tuesday morning, “Obviously it’s a huge and daunting challenge, and for any transitional government… there are still questions of legitimacy that are raised by the Libyans themselves, and the support that they will have from the population at large is still a big question.”

“There are other countries in the region that have gone through similar experiences… the challenge of bringing all the Libyans together can very well turn into a messy thing, if there is any chance of having an insurgency,” she added.

Should the Transitional National Council go from a revolutionary movement to a government, and manage to unify the disparate Libyan opposition and bring the country back to functioning economically, there may be a considerable upside, both domestically and for the world economy, and not just from the resumption of oil flows.