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Monthly Archives: June 2011

FNE & FRE Bailout Up to $317 Billion So Far…..Not $130 Billion the Administration Claims

“(CNSNews.com) – The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says the real cost of the federal government guaranteeing the business of failed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is $317 billion — not the $130 billion normally claimed by the Obama administration.

In a report delivered to the House Budget Committee on June 2, the CBO said a “fair value” accounting of guaranteeing the two defunct mortgage companies – known as Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) – was more than twice as high as the Office of Management and Budget had accounted for.

“Specifically, CBO treats the mortgages guaranteed each year by the two GSEs as new guarantee obligations of the federal government,” the CBO report said. “For those guarantees, CBO’s projections of budget outlays equal the estimated federal subsidies inherent in the commitments at the time they are made.”

“In contrast, the Administration’s Office of Management and Budget continues to treat Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as nongovernmental entities for budgetary purposes, and thus outside the budget,” the report stated. “It records as outlays the amount of the net cash payments provided by the Treasury to the GSEs.”

The total of those cash payments is $130 billion, and is normally reported as the cost of the bailout of the GSEs to date. However, the CBO said that merely counting the cash payments, and not the cost of federal subsidies granted to the GSEs, obscures their real costs.”

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Apple Highlights the Cloud and Many New Creature Features

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“Steve Jobs is giving the keynote at Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference today at 10 am PT, and we’ll be there bringing you live coverage.

Apple has already announced that he’ll be showing off iOS 5, the next version of the iPhone and iPad operating system, and Lion, the next major update to the Mac OS.

He’ll also be taking the wraps off something called iCloud, which Apple has described as its “upcoming cloud services offering.”

The rumors about iCloud are all over the map — it could be a cloud-based music locker like Google Music or Amazon Cloud Drive, but only for iTunes purchases, and might involve some kind of subscription like Spotify. It could be a replacement for MobileMe, Apple’s $99/year online backup service. Or it might be a way to access stuff stored on Time Capsule, Apple’s backup device, over the Internet.

Join us as all is revealed. Click here or refresh your browser for the latest.

12:05: We’re inside! And already there’s a buzz about a mystery banner hanging over everyone’s head……”

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ECRI: Inflation Pressure Will Continue to Recede

“The ECRI’s Future Inflation Gauge declined in May from 102.9 to 101.  This is one of the few reliable independent inflation gauges.  Lakshman Achuthan, Chief Economist of ECRI said inflation pressures are clearly receding:

“With the USFIG hitting a seven-month low, underlying inflation pressures have clearly begun to recede.”

This should pretty much put the imminent predictions of hyperinflation to rest (though we should not expect any of the hyperinflationists to be held accountable for their complete and total lack of understanding of the US monetary system).  Disinflation is clearly becoming a risk again.”

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Market Fall Has Presented Cheap Tech Stocks for Sale

“The five-week drop in U.S. stocks has driven technology company valuations to the lowest level in more than a decade, making them too cheap to pass up for some of the nation’s biggest money managers.

The largest group in the benchmark gauge for American equities lost 7 percent, or about $190 billion in value, since the market peaked on Feb. 18, falling more than any industry outside financials. Computer stocks trade for 9.3 times reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, 1.3 times the index’s multiple, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The ratio is the smallest since at least 1998.

While signs of a slowing recovery and the initial public offering of LinkedIn Corp. have spurred concern the industry has entered a speculative bubble, the numbers show something different. Profits will rise 35 percent faster than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in 2011, and executives are boosting computer and software spending, data from Bank of America Corp. and Bloomberg show.

“We see the best supply-demand trend in technology,” said Michael Sansoterra, a money manager at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Atlanta, which oversees $48.5 billion including Broadcom Corp. and Google Inc. shares. “You can measure it pretty much every way you want and it looks attractive.”

Computer-Industry Earnings

Computer-industry earnings are almost double the level at the peak of the Internet bubble. Profits for technology makers in the S&P 500 totaled $135.6 billion last year, compared with $72.9 billion in 2000, when the S&P 500 Information Technology Index reached an all-time high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bank of America says corporate expenditures on equipment and software will increase 10 percent this year, about four times faster than U.S. gross domestic product.”

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More Tax Payer Monies to Be Thrown into Foreclosures

“The Obama administration wants to help more struggling Americans stay in their homes by reducing the amount they owe on their troubled mortgages, a top Treasury official said.

“We are very definitely trying to facilitate more principal reductions,” said Timothy Massad, Treasury’s acting assistant secretary for financial stability. “It is a very important piece of the overall solution,” he said.

The administration is trying through taxpayer-funded programs to prevent homeowners from losing their homes. Nearly $50 billion has been set aside from the $700 billion bank bailout known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, to help distressed homeowners.

Persistently high unemployment and a weak housing market pose a threat to President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects next year.

So far, one of the programs has helped some 670,000 distressed homeowners win lower mortgage payments. But that has done very little to help the overall housing market, which remains depressed even as other parts of the economy have started to recover.

A glut of houses for sale, foreclosures, tight credit and little demand have impeded the housing recovery. Recent data showed that home prices dropped below the low seen in April 2009 during the financial crisis…”

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Cool Car

“Tesla Motors has just released a slew of new photos of the Tesla Model S “Alpha,” its forthcoming electric four-door coupe.

The vehicle will have a range of up to 300 miles, and will cost between $49,000 and $60,000, depending on trim level, autoevolution reports.

It will also come loaded with neat perks, such as a 17-inch infortainment touchscreen and 3G wireless connectivity, according to autoevolution.

The battery, which is compatible with 110V, 220V and 440V outlets, takes around 45 minutes to charge.”

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Always Save for a Rainy Day

“John McMonigle claims to be the world’s number one real estate agent. With $2.5 billion in residential sales over the past six years, this 46-year-old realtor may well have been.

And now he’s declaring bankruptcy.

According to the Orange County Register, McMonigle has amassed $50 million in debt, even after selling his luxurious Newport Beach condo, his car and personal effects.”

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Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades

ZEUS – Olympic Steel upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Davenport

OAS – Oasis Petroleum initiated with Market Perform at BMO Capital

WTI – W&T Offshore upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital

BYD – Boyd Gaming upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan

ARTC – ArthroCare upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna

DGI – DigitalGlobe upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan

SF – Stifel Financial upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette

GNOM – Complete Genomics resumed with a Buy at Jefferies

ALXN – Alexion Pharma resumed with Buy at ThinkEquity

TXN – Texas Instruments initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity

BCS – Barclays PLC initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse

SBUX – Starbucks upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital

Downgrades

ENOC – EnerNOC ests and target lowered to $9 at Wedbush

TLVT – Telvent downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray

LOW – Lowe’s downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan

SWI – SolarWinds downgraded to Equal Weight at Evercore

BTE – Baytex Energy Trust downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Newcrest

HBC – HSBC Holdings initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse

NOA – North American Energy downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James

RBS – Royal Bank of Scotland initiated with Neutral at Credit Suisse

SMG – Scotts Miracle-Gro downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow

FTE – France Telecom downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup

PCS – MetroPCS downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Markets

CORt – Corcept Therapeutics downgraded to Market Perform at Leerink Swann

PLD – ProLogis initiated with Neutral at Credit Suisse

WFC – Wells Fargo downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Rochdale

DRCO – Dynamics Research downgraded to Hold from Buy at EarlyBirdCapital

CLF – Cliffs Natural Resources ests lowered at Stifel Nicolaus following updated operating guidance

LO – Lorillard downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Davenport

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping up

ENOC +7.4%, TSL +0.9%, CLMT +3.4%, INCY +3%, JKS +1.2%, INCY +3%, SHPGY +1.2%,  SEE +5%, FRO +3.6%, CLMT +3.4%, SAP +0.8%, UTHR +0.5%, AZN +1.0%, ENOC +9.3%, OXGN +5.6%, CSUN +5.2%, JASO +4%, BPAX +3.5%, RXII +10%, SOLR +2.5%, ALTI +25.8%,

Gapping down

BMY -1.4%

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Natty Gas and Its World Win Tour

“VIENNA—Natural gas could be entering a “golden age” and represent a much larger portion of the global energy mix, but the fuel is still a fossil fuel and doesn’t represent a panacea for climate change, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

The IEA, which represents the governments of consuming countries, said natural gas could rise by more than 50% from 2010 levels and account for more than a quarter of global energy demand by 2035. The estimates follow a recent surge of shale gas production in the U.S., which has significantly altered the energy picture in recent years in the U.S.

But the IEA cautioned that while an increased use of natural gas could boost energy security, it shouldn’t overwhelm other energy forms that could be better in addressing climate change. IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka expressed concern that governments over react against nuclear energy following the recent Japan crisis.

“While natural gas is the ‘cleanest’ fossil fuel, it is still a fossil fuel,” Mr. Tanaka said. “Its increased use could muscle out low-carbon fuels, such as renewables and nuclear—particularly in the wake of the incident at Fukushima and the likelihood of a reduced role for nuclear in some countries. An expansion of gas use alone is no panacea for climate change.”

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Euro Asset Manager: Europe Has Not Had its Financial Crisis Yet

“Europe has not yet had its financial crisis while America is still recovering from its crisis in 2008 according to Jim McCaughan, the CEO of Principal Global Investors.

“Europe’s debt crisis appears to be entering a more dangerous phase. If the EU and ECB continue pretending this is a liquidity crisis, they run the risk of allowing inadequate fiscal adjustment, particularly in Greece,” said McCaughan in an interview with CNBC on Monday.

“Debt levels are too high in the peripheral countries, so in the absence of rescheduling, or ‘re-profiling’ as it is now being called, there will need to be a continued large subsidy from the taxpayers in the strong economies,” he said.

If no one is actually going to leave the euro zone, debt restructuring remains the most likely way out of this crisis according to McCaughan, who refuses to take denials from EU policy makers at face value.

“The impact of rescheduling on the financial sector would be severe, with recapitalization of many banks being necessary. In a sense, Europe has not yet had its financial crisis, though the US is recovering from its own,” he said.

“Another new element is Spain, where there is increasing populist pressure against austerity, and house prices are not yet clearing in the market, remaining perhaps 20 percent above trend. So solvency issues for the banking system seem likely to hurt government finances further,” said McCaughan.

US to Outperform Europe”

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Greece to Take Austerity Measures Again; People Protest En Masse

“ATHENS (Reuters) – Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou starts a campaign on Monday to secure a new international bailout by imposing years of austerity on a nation already seething over corruption and economic mismanagement.

Unease is growing within Papandreou’s ranks about the consequences of waves of budget cuts demanded under successive deals with the European Union and IMF — and this could turn into alarm after at least 80,000 Greeks crammed a central Athens square to vent their anger over the nation’s dire state.

As the government struggles to prevent Greece from defaulting on its debt, the Socialist cabinet starts discussing at 2 pm (6 a.m. ET) the medium-term economic plan which will impose 6.4 billion euros of extra austerity this year alone.

This is the first stage of a drive to turn the plan, agreed on Friday with the EU and IMF as the price of a new financial rescue, into law despite signs of dissent in the ruling party.

Papandreou will present the plan to the political council of his PASOK party on Tuesday, before the cabinet clears it the following day and sends it to parliament.

Greece’s international lenders say the new bailout package, which would replace a 110 billion euro deal agreed only a year ago, depends on Athens keeping to its promises for further austerity and accelerated privatizations.”

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European Markets Fall or Trade Unch

“Stocks fell for a fourth day in Europe and oil declined on concern the global economic recovery is faltering. Portugal’s bonds rallied after theSocial Democrats won elections pledging austerity measures.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.5 percent at 7:25 a.m. in New York. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent. Crude oil retreated before OPEC ministers meet this week in Vienna. The yen strengthened against all 16 of its major peers, adding 0.4 percent to 80.09 per dollar. The yield on Portugal’s 10-year bond decreased 10 basis points to 9.71 percent.

More than $2 trillion has been erased from the market value of global equities since this year’s peak on May 1 as disappointing economic data, capped by last week’s U.S. jobs report, sent the S&P 500 to its fifth weekly decline on June 3. Pedro Passos Coelho, Portugal’s incoming Social Democratic prime minister, said he would forge a coalition to meet conditions of the country’s 78 billion-euro ($114 billion) bailout.

“Since peaking in early May, markets have steadily moved lower as the constant stream of weak data points to a slowing global recovery,” said Jonathan Sudaria, a trader at London Capital Group. “The debate amongst traders is whether this is a mere correction in the 2 1/2-yearbull market or are fundamental weaknesses lining up to push markets significantly lower?””

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Asian Markets Fall Over Night

“Asian stocks declined, dragging the regional benchmark index to its lowest level in a week, as slowing jobs growth in the U.S. added to signs the global economic recovery is faltering.

Panasonic Corp. (6752), the biggest maker of plasma televisions, fell 1.8 percent in Tokyo. Tokyo Electric Co. plunged 28 percent after the Asahi Shimbun newspaper quoted Tokyo Stock Exchange President Atsushi Saito as saying that the operator of the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant should be put under bankruptcy protection.Qantas Airways Ltd. (QAN) led airlines lower after the International Air Transport Association cut its 2011 industry profit forecast.

“We were anticipating a pretty dreadful jobs number and it did turn out worse than expected,” Arjuna Mahendran, Singapore- based head of investment strategy for Asia at HSBC Private Bank, told Bloomberg Television. “We’ll have another few weeks of a gradual selloff. That will be a good time to start hunting for bargains.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2 percent to 133.71 as of 7:53 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than three stocks falling for each that rose. The gauge last week capped its biggest streak of weekly losses since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008 as reports showed manufacturing growth from China, the U.S. and Europe slowed in May and American companies hired fewer workers than forecast, adding to signs the global economy is faltering.

Nikkei Falls”

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U.K. Factory Production Gains in the Second Quarter

“U.K. factory production strengthened in the second quarter as companies benefited from increasing export orders, the Engineering Employers Federation said.

A measure of output rose to 28 from 25 in the first three months of the year, the EEF, a lobby for manufacturers, and BDO Stoy Hayward LLP said in a report released today in London. A gauge of new export orders increased to 28 from 25.

The pound’s drop of about 25 percent on a trade-weighted basis since the start of 2007 has bolstered manufacturers by stoking demand for exports. Still, with manufacturing accounting for just 13 percent of the economy and domestic demand sluggish, the Bank of England will probably leave its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent this week to support the recovery.”

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