Here’s What Happens When Your Cash Flow Doesn’t Add

Since the markets are closed to accomodate people who like to skip work, I’m stuck here with nothing to distract me from the pile of paperwork that’s been building up since early December. Bother…

However, for those of you who aren’t given any fake holidays to play hooky with, here’s some light reading to keep you entertained.

Background reading:

Here

And here

And that is what happens when you play fast and loose with debt, trying to be all things to all people.

Sticking with the larger theme over the past two weeks, my portfolio is melting higher into the close. AEC, CLP, CCJ, BAS, and RGR are all rushing up, either for profits or, in the case of Ruger, to close the day flat. Which, given Ruger’s last month, is really not a problem at all.

Physical silver has largely recovered from the Fed scare. The euro has also rebounded after Junker tried to talk it down.

My expectation is for higher prices. We are running, and only confirmation that the recovery is not happening will stop us. If you are betting against the indices, or are out of the market, I have bad news for you – that is months away.

You are stuck exactly where I was last year; having the right answers, but getting whipped anyway. It will come through for you in the end. But unlike 2011 and early 2012, this time I will be mocking you, sipping straight whiskey, and the pain will only end after I’ve locked in profits and position myself against the market.

So I am afraid you will be on the receiving end of jokes until at least March…

Expect treasuries to sell off as short sellers start trying to edge into that trade. The rising yield will only add to confirmation bias, bouying the stock markets higher. Both trades will fail in the Spring with bad prints going into summer.

The treasury bears will be killed at least this one last time. The markets will sell off again. I personally will be interested in building a short euro and short oil position sometime in the next two months.

What a grand morning it is. The Michigan temperature is freezing, but there is no snow in the Southeast. Moisture from breath swirls into flurries as quickly as you can exhale. It exerts the heart upon leaving the house, giving oneself that glorious pressure that reminds you you’re alive.

Mrs. Thaler and myself have a calm weekend planned. I think we will go to the club with some friends for a brunch on Sunday. Tomorrow she has planned to drag me around the ring cities.

As for business this week, it was stupendous. My account has rocketed higher from the last week in December. My gains at the end of 2012 were mild – double digits but disappointing, as I required ~25% gains to correct for the 2011 losses.

2013 is off to a much better start. I have made so much in the past two weeks that breaking out towards my old highs is well within my grasp. It all hinges on CCJ. If CCJ can recover this year then I will be making new all-time highs.

Okay, I played it like a rookie, trading the open, but it won’t matter.

RGR is going back above $60, and will be making new highs in short order.

If it dips, I’d be willing to buy more, but only by offsetting elsewhere.

I’m running hot right now with no cash. And we are going higher.

HIGHER

The Obama gun control announcement was a complete non-issue for gun manufacturers. The Executive Orders, the only part of this that I ever feared, was stuffed full of common sense, passive actions that no one was objecting to in the first place.

And Obama acknowledged (which is always half the battle with him) that any attempt to restrict magazine capacity or ban “assault weapons” (read “any gun that looks scary”) must start in the Legislature.

Reid and Boehner are just FIGHTING with each other over who gets to start that process…

Oh, wait no they’re both punting.

Meanwhile, Obama’s actions, surrounding himself with children like a 20th century totalitarian on crack, before announcing this set of soft measures, have fired up the gun owners and political operatives who haven’t quite worked out yet that this isn’t a big deal.

The gun buying craze, which is pre-empting future government action that probably isn’t coming, will run voraciously until it exhausts itself. And ironically, a push to try and reign in weapons will have inadvertently put a lot more of them into circulation.

On a pullback, I will consider adding back RGR to my portfolio. By this time next year, it will be making new highs.

The MAObama jive is back in play. I sold RGR yesterday. Now let’s get some f-ing gun control.