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Fight The Madness

Every morning we are greeted by the same seemingly endless river of selling and blood. And every afternoon, the market fights back, plus some.

The terror of this is certainly infecting the minds of the weak, but you must be strong. I confess, even I become afraid when I see my stocks tipping, each and every day. Behind this charade, however, the path higher remains clear to me.

There are still companies worth buying. I will be truly afraid when I look for positions to purchase and come up, repeatedly, empty handed.

This is merely a changing of asset type, not the beginning of something more. The market is putting the old staples in tech and fast growing IPOs out of favor, turning their attention now to my preferred positions – energy and infrastructure.

I have sworn off hedging and short positions in this last cycle for a reason; it’s been a huge money loser. I have a few percent tied up in puts that will not adequately cover my losses should we get a severe correction, and am just fine with that.

We are not in for another 2008. An event of that magnitude occurs once every hundred years. Here and now, we are still recovering from a system wide shock, and retirees very much need a place to park their livelihoods. The system will continue to recovery, albeit slowly.

Have faith in that.

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The Market Sure Looks Terrible

We open our week where once beloved technology companies continue their unfolding tragedy, sinking otherwise well to do enterprises and frustrating the market at large.

I shouldn’t even have to deal with this crap, do to a longstanding decision to shun big multiples tech firms and keep that trash out of my portfolio. Sadly, thanks to a wanting of such self restraint on the part of co-shareholders in the positions that I do have, I get to participate in the selling right alongside the rest of you; as if I owned a start up tech IPO that was knee-capped to the tune of 50% out the gate, anyway.

BAS was given a relief rally of about 4% today, which of course cratered into lunch. That led TheStreet to confidently assert that BAS is merely “dead cat bouncing”. Of course, TheStreet has been equally confident that BAS was dead money from $14, so my personal opinion of their articles related to BAS should be easy enough to guess.

The only positions I own that aren’t dragging me lower seem to be the multifamily themes – AEC and MAA (and technically speaking my hedging…but only because the losses on my PGJ and TSLA puts have already been had).

In summary, the 9th floor is smarting today and I find myself fearing a bloodbath, derived solely from a selloff in positions I would never own anyway.

Huzzah…

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The Ratings Industry Is A Stupid Place

Let’s just take a second to really breath in the absurdity that takes place around us on a day by day basis, shall we?

Here is a recent history of analyst recommendations for BAS (one of my favorite positions, I will say right off the bat, since it traded at $12).

Untitled

Look specifically at the ratings being issued by Wunderlich Securities. On October 28, 2013, Wunderlich downgraded BAS from a Hold to a Sell. Then, yesterday, they upgraded BAS from a SELL to a HOLD.

And now let’s look at the price action in BAS.

04-20-14 BAS 12 Months

Wunderlich almost marked the explosive upside to the inflection point. If we don’t go anywhere, they will have “downgraded” 100% of equity gains.

Okay so Wunderlich blew the call and got it wrong. They then reversed their rating to a Hold from a Sell (if you listened you missed out on a move that is being converted to a logarithmic scale on most finance sites). Fair enough – mistakes happen.

That’s not what irritates me. This is what irritates me:

Will This Upgrade Help Basic Energy Services (BAS) Stock Today?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Basic Energy Services Inc. (BAS_) was upgraded to “hold” from “sell” at Wunderlich Securities.

The firm upgraded their rating based on improvements in the weather and natural gas prospects.”

Will this upgrade help BAS? I would fucking hope not

I don’t want to sound indignant here because I guess as a shareholder, any good news is welcome. But…Christ…

We have just devolved to the point of putting anything out there that we can slap a curious headline on to whore a few hits on a website. After a miss like that, why should Wunderlich Securities’ have the ability to move markets with regards to BAS? If I were to make a list of analyst opinions I care about when it comes to BAS, Wunderlich (and basically half the others on that sheet at the top of this post)…they’re not even at the bottom, okay? They’re not even on the list.

The 24/7 “news about nothing” cycle just starts to grind on you after a while. We have a multi-million (billion?) dollar industry that seems to exist for the sole purpose of employing people to tell me stuff. Why I should listen though…as of yet, nobody has really explained that.

Maybe The Street should instead do a story about how many analysts (including their own) completely missed an obvious buying opportunity. And if you relegate yourself to those sites (rather than read the grassroots efforts of iBankCoin or like), you probably had no idea.

Because less I let this slip by, here’s The Street’s own rating for BAS:

TheStreet Ratings team rates BASIC ENERGY SERVICES INC as a Hold with a ratings score of C-. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

“We rate BASIC ENERGY SERVICES INC (BAS) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company’s strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its solid stock price performance, increase in net income and revenue growth. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and poor profit margins.”

What’s that? Sorry I’m too busy being up 130% on this position to hear you.

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Well Well Well Well Well

I come to you from South East Michigan, where we are privy to a miniature, personal snow flurry. I know it’s not snowing elsewhere in this state, because I had to drive deep into the wooded heartland to wrap up tax season (always have shadowy figures an hour’s drive away from any IRS building do your taxes. If the IRS wants to pop in for a visit, make them earn it).

It’s a bizarre experience to have a heavy snowfall with blue skies overhead, for sure.

I was privileged, alongside the rest of you, to watch the market turn on the face of a dime and ram higher this afternoon, much to the shock and horror of the “new depression” crowd.

You dicks should have to surrender your mark before getting invited onto these unsavory televisions shows to preach. Every time we get an unexpected 10% correction, I get to hear how we’re just days away from a 50% plunge into total chaos.

Then when it doesn’t happen, the perpetrators limp back home where they keep a low profile, knowing that their only blessing in this world is that nobody cares enough to remember them, and therefore cannot point out the last half dozen times they blew it.

Janet Yellen has spoken and her message is one of love…for equity. Take your medicine.

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The Blood Continues

I’m seeing stocks nosedive across my screen, where once positive positions are flipping to losses rather abruptly.

My opinion, with a 20% cash position and still greater than +10% gains for the year, is likely much different from yours. I am going to wait this out, because I can afford to try, having shunned the tech space basically indiscriminately.

I’ve known enough programmers to know better than to invest money with them…

If I start getting into the +6% range for the year or if I get scared, well then I’ll change up and raise cash. In the back of my mind, I have to believe that Yellen is at least as dovish as Ben. She will exert her influence eventually, and then this sweet elderly woman will go Scarface on short sellers.

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BAS Continuing The Epic Run

Check out Basic Energy Services, up another 4.5%, flirting with $27.00 as it steadily pounds its way to $30.00.

HCLP is playfully tagging along, after the doldrums took it down back below $40.00 this week. And well it should – they’re in the same industry after all. What’s good for BAS is great for HCLP.

Uranium is slack and UEC is dying (very small position). CCJ is back to it’s old range, and I am saddened by that.

But this is a buying opportunity make no mistake of that.

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