HCLP just blew through $60, as analysts raise targets in response to the HAL announcement.

BAS is back above $27. I guess I could have held onto all of those shares, but I have no regrets. Retaining a 15% position in BAS is more than reasonable.

SLW is pushing its way to $26.

My only position that is down noticeably today is UEC. And that remains my smallest position at 5% of assets.

Fracking investments remain the place to be. Oil names are doing well by extension (and a high price per barrel). I’m telling you, coal will be the next thing to run.

Have a wonderful afternoon.

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This sudden resurge of equities has propelled me back to all time highs; and nothing is “surgier” than Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP).

Last night, they announced an amended supply agreement with Halliburton (HAL), for the usual terms – more committed volumes, higher prices, certain benchmarks for yet greater volumes at even higher prices still…etcetera etcetera.

This follows an announcement on the 17th of June for much the same deal with Liberty Oilfield Services.

The culmination of these announcements has sent HCLP to $58.50, at time of this correspondence, gracefully and effortlessly taking out new all time highs of its own.

For the year, I have only one bad investment, and that is NRP. At least, for now. Aside from that, it has been all gravy trains and cocaine buffets.

Up next on the menu: the EPA announcement of new power plant regulations will be recognized as the exact floor for coal stocks.

Get some while the getting is good.

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I entered into NRP some time ago, which was quickly an unmitigated disaster. The position is down 25% from my purchase price. I sold half the position, along with other partial positions, back in January when I raised cash.

Today, I added back some of that for $14.93.

I want to talk at brief about coal. The time to buy into US coal reserves is now, while euphoria over natural gas is highest and markets are most spooked about a Democrat directed EPA.

I am in no way minimalizing the importance of the shale revolution. Not by a longshot – if you look at my own holdings, BAS and HCLP represent a firm belief in the continued importance of those assets to the US energy equation.

What I am doing is highlighting the continued importance coal will have in US power generation and abroad.

Coal presently makes up just over 1/3 of US domestic generation. This is down from 1/2 earlier this decade, most prominently replaced by the surge in application with natural gas. Yet, markets price in equilibrium of choices, when operating correctly.

We have to presume that markets will find a price that fairly limits benefits between choosing natural gas versus coal versus nuclear versus…for equivalent production of energy. This would suggest that natural gas prices are set to rise (further enhancing the payoff for the producers). I would also expect that, as excess capacity gets utilized, the adaptation of coal plants to gas will subside.

This process may take a little longer to finish, and perhaps gas will even match coal in terms of energy mix before it is done. What I would not count on is coal rapidly or even ever completely being removed from global energy production.

Which brings us to the fears of EPA punitive measures against coal. So far, these are aimed at coal fired power plants. While this would, at least temporarily, hinder US energy production from coal here at home, what is to stop US coal producers from simply shipping overseas? And why is metallurgical coal acting so volatile when it is not a component of US power generation?

The signs, to my eyes, spell clear a story of market overreaction to pop culture and fantasy. Power generation shifts or slides, waxes or wanes. It does not turn on or off. Coal has been systematically shunned regardless of its exact nature (energy versus metallurgical) and the driving catalyst seems to be mostly political.

But politics change and politics in this country are about to.

I will give you a 6 month synopsis of what is about to happen. In November, the DNC is going to get creamed, delivering the Senate to the RNC. You can suspend your political predilections, as this is merely obvious to anyone not sucking their own exhaust. And the GOP has no problem with coal power generation. In fact, the Republicans think the argument against coal power generation is, quote, “stupid”.

This will change the short term plot dynamics that drive most superficial market players. Around middle of 2015 or early 2016, coal will be “the most obvious buy ever”, whereas today it is “fools nonsense.” Of course, when it is “the most obvious buy ever”, it will be at some considerable percentage above where you can take a position today.

This will accelerate especially if it should appear going into the next presidential election that a Republican is about to take the White House (that is still too far out for me to see, but it is certainly not out of the question). In such an event, the current shunning of coal will look especially stupid and myopic.

Regardless of the next presidential cycle though, the simple act of the GOP taking both chambers of Congress should noticeably shift the messaging surrounding out of favor coal plays. Executive overreach through agency bodies, no longer shielded by the Senate, will begin getting visibly and openly reprimanded; or even punished.

This shift, along with coals critical importance to the US economy and abroad, should render this a generous buying opportunity in hindsight.

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Yes, today has me in a foul temper, and I almost – almost – started hitting the sell tickets.

It may be that tomorrow will be the day I cave in and raise cash. It may be the day after. My mood could swing wildly in the future. But today, it is steady and this much seems clear to me.

This is a stupid point to start selling.

There is just nothing out there, besides the obscene losses tossed upon the backs of hedge funds via NASDAQ death spiral action, that suggests systemic trouble.

Check out the USD. It’s falling, even as the market tanks here. How often do you imagine we get selloffs that leave our currency less valuable?

I’m inclined to think Europe may have something to do with this – perhaps someone knows the ECB won’t be easing? That could at least explain a strong euro; but it doesn’t explain US equities taking a beating, necessarily.

Twitter is amiss with talk of a mighty “surge” in treasuries. Yields are dropping to zero so so fast. So tell me, friend, does this look like a big deal to you?

(Image casually borrowed from Yahoo)

Aside from pervasive losses rocking professional money managers, or else possibly some looming announcement that Congress is set to sign us up for World War 3, there is just nothing. If we keep dropping, I might raise cash just to hedge “the unknown”.

But selling for no reason at all is always just a horrible reason to sell.

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The indices are lower and I don’t care, because for me the bull market is back.

HCLP is up 3.5%. BAS is up 2.3%. UEC is up about 8% after being up 21% yesterday. NRP is up 1%. CCJ is up 1%. Silver is up 1%. Nothing I own is even down today.

The rotation is at hand, into my hand as luck would have it.

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If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

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