Yes, today has me in a foul temper, and I almost – almost – started hitting the sell tickets.
It may be that tomorrow will be the day I cave in and raise cash. It may be the day after. My mood could swing wildly in the future. But today, it is steady and this much seems clear to me.
This is a stupid point to start selling.
There is just nothing out there, besides the obscene losses tossed upon the backs of hedge funds via NASDAQ death spiral action, that suggests systemic trouble.
Check out the USD. It’s falling, even as the market tanks here. How often do you imagine we get selloffs that leave our currency less valuable?
I’m inclined to think Europe may have something to do with this – perhaps someone knows the ECB won’t be easing? That could at least explain a strong euro; but it doesn’t explain US equities taking a beating, necessarily.
Twitter is amiss with talk of a mighty “surge” in treasuries. Yields are dropping to zero so so fast. So tell me, friend, does this look like a big deal to you?
(Image casually borrowed from Yahoo)
Aside from pervasive losses rocking professional money managers, or else possibly some looming announcement that Congress is set to sign us up for World War 3, there is just nothing. If we keep dropping, I might raise cash just to hedge “the unknown”.
But selling for no reason at all is always just a horrible reason to sell.
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Big tell for me is the overall leverage in the markets, above 2007/8 levels and earnings are mean-reverting (aka going down fast as cost cutting reaches diminishing returns and earning growth declines).
As Blue has said, earnings peaked several quarters ago and have been revised downwards.
Ultimately, this is just a scary market to be in on either side of the tape IMO