Why is the dollar falling on Greek bailout news? Last I checked, that involves a massive shift of funds over to the country, much of which is coming from the IMF and is therefore a devaluation.

The U.S. dollar, for the meantime, is a static currency, so long as the Fed maintains a zero sum policy game with the bonds in its portfolio, and Congress refrains from borrowing more.

Who believes that bailing out Greece is going to be a strengthening act for the euro? It feels more like a move that will weaken the currency, despite Greek austerity.

My guess is the dollar is weakening more out of habit and reflex to the bailout, than for any good reason.

But again, the real issues everyone should be focusing on are the U.S. debt talks, and the state of affairs in China. Get your heads out of the Mediterannean.

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I will go into more elaborate detail on this tonight, once I have a minute to breath. I’m too busy at work to get technical on why I seriously doubt this spike in home contracts constitutes a bottom forming in the market.

However, I will give you a gist of the idea now, to set up for later.

Basically, citizen wages are not a normal distribution. The distribution is obviously multimodal, and so you should expect several spikes in sales to occur at varying degrees of time. Yet, the small condensed areas toward to outliers which are creating these spikes likely have wide spreads between them and the more relevant, larger congregation of lower salaries, which must necessarily participate in any housing recovery in order to let it sink in.

In laymens terms, more well to do people are probably buying homes right now, but how many will they purchase, and after they have their fill, how long will it be before the next surge in homebuyers can have a turn?

Don’t get dragged into the suckers bet, ladies and gentlemen.

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Did any of you really think this wouldn’t pass?

Greece has the whole planet leaning on them right now; the failed no-confidence vote of the PM more or less set this up as a certainty.

And again, this isn’t important, at all.

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You should all celebrate as oil cuts through $90 a barrel, to the downside. This is a premonition of things to come.

“You all”, of course, is excluding anyone who levered long oil as it crossed $100 coming off of a recession.

What, did you think we’d rush back to $150 like it’s 2008? Who has the money to afford that sort of nonsense!?

But have no fear; your future contracts for oil delivery will be used for the benefit of the country, as you’re forced into fire sale liquidations, creating a most lovely supply glut to the cheers of refineries and industry everywhere.

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As my last meeting comes to a close, along with my day (I’m taking an early weekend), I meet an end of the week reward, as ERX is bleeding out another 4%, all thanks to Asia joining in on the fun. They’ve decided to blast oil markets as well, following the Obama Administration’s lead.

For the day thus far I am up another .1%, as remnants of my portfolio hold onto small gains and losses elsewhere are offset.

I added to CCJ last Friday, if you didn’t catch that. As such, my cash position is below 10%, but being that I’m mostly hiding out in underpriced assets, I’m not concerned.

The dollar is continuing to rally, exactly as I said it would at the end of March. I will look avidly to the outcome of the debt ceiling argument, to give clues about forward policy and the direction of the dollar.

While I don’t believe the currency will strengthen, in the true sense of dollars being taken out of circulation or naturally occurring price decreases from increasing production, further dollar strength may still be witnessed.

Substantial bets were placed against the dollar, over the last few years. Those unwinding positions may bring further upside to the greenback yet. And world governments seem to be coordinating a full on attack against commodities alongside this strength, which may serve to make it all the more potent.

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As far as debt talks are concerned, Republicans are going to get everything they demand, probably sometime next month but definitely before the treasury runs out of money.

Let me lay out the situation developing in Congress for you.

Republicans control the House and the Supreme Court; only one of which actually (supposedly) develops legislation and creates policy.

Democrats control the Executive Branch and the Senate. As far as crafting legislation is concerned, they oversee half of its creation and the entire implementation process.

You could say then that Democrats hold ¾ of the power in Washington. And that makes any outcome happening on Capitol Hill predominantly their fault.

So for the Democrats to try and paint the debt issue, if they fail to pass a raise in the ceiling, as the fault of the Republicans, makes them look completely ineffectual. It makes them look absolutely retarded, actually.

Meanwhile, Democrats espouse to help the poor, blah blah blah…but if they fail to raise the ceiling, then those exact people will be hurt the most when the checks stop getting cleared.

To use a metaphor, this standoff is like a game of chicken, where the Democratic Party has to keep driving the car at top speed at a wall, and the Republicans never have to take a turn. They just get to chalk down imaginary lines for the Dems to try and beat while they sit there and wait for the crash.

If Democrats are willing to play ball, then Republicans will get their cuts, including to the sacred entitlement cows. If Democrats aren’t willing to go on the record, then Republicans get what they want anyway by letting the Treasury get screwed, and frankly it’s much more likely that the Dems or Obama will get blamed for it. Are the Dems willing to risk creating a financial nightmare under their watch, simply because they refuse to accept net spending cuts without putting it on the backs of the country’s citizens? During a time when most people are suffering, including the most wealthy?

It sounds stupid just saying it.

Entitlement reform is being reluctantly accepted by some of the biggest political groups, including the AARP. If the AARP can swallow the medicine, I think you’d be surprised how reluctant people will be to punish Republicans for pushing the issue. Spending cuts are the mood of the moment, after the binge of the recent years.

Republicans are already on the record being flexible and stating they DO NOT want to shut down government or cause a technical default. This outcome is the Democratic Party’s child, and they will own it. Expect a Republican victory.

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