Bought CCJ and OMAB

752 views

I am deploying some cash here, by buying back my old position of CCJ for $14.14, and starting a new position in OMAB for $37.78.

CCJ is a well documented position by me, and I believe the thesis holds. Uranium prices are continuing to recover. CCJ has some issues with the Canadian government they’re working through, and have been smacked around by the selloff. I think uranium will have its day soon enough. Cheap, clean power is a global commitment – to that end, the climate change crowd will at least serve some purpose for me.

OMAB is a publicly traded Mexican airport which has been growing at a double digit pace. As the American consumer continues to reap the windfall of cheap gasoline, I expect vacations will pick up. OMAB is the terminal for Cancun, as well as other locations across that region. They also are a major owner of a Puerto Rico airport.

Besides continually growing traffic, they also should get a benefit from cheap fuel prices.

OMAB was detailed in the Income Investment Report, if you want more information.

Cash stands at 60%.

The Big Question Then: How To Play EU QE?

1,260 views

The Swiss bank just announced that the ceiling they have been maintaining against the euro is to be dropped. That would make sense, since the euro is now trading below 1.17, down from almost 1.40 just earlier. In terms of the exchange rate, that had to be getting very expensive.

But the timing here should be viewed as a sign that the ECB is really about to start QE. This should be the stance because if they don’t, the impact would be minimal, but if they do you can’t be on the wrong side of the trade.

In terms of what this QE will look like…well, that is the question. What is the ECB going to buy? Not public debt, surely. How much more financing can these governments stomach with yields already negative in many countries. Even the worst countries, like Greece, are borrowing at rates that an average citizen would envy.

My guess here is two fold: (1) they buy up private financial assets similar to the mortgage program the Fed had in place, but that it will center on short term bonds, while also working with banks to create a long term financing window (EU companies and banks in particular have notoriously short term financing arrangements) and (2) they take the opportunity to absorb whatever mechanisms exactly they have been using, before now, to hide the massive debt loads that should have been coming due over the past three years.

If you forgot, Europe ended up pulling some master BS, using a combination of trade accounts to gobble up the garbage so that the markets wouldn’t have to see it default. I’m hazy on the exact specifics, but I would gamble that those imbalanced accounts are still outstanding; and my guess is they’re about to get totally monetized.

So the big question now is, where do you park money? I think that it would be very stupid to try and be short right now with central banks making big noise and seemingly readying the cannons.

If this is like past central bank action, then any longs will do – equity, commodities, debt, whatever you like. Oil could get a huge boost since it’s been so ravaged. ECB action will give the Fed room to play, especially if deflation keeps up. Yellen is no Bernanke…yet, but she also hasn’t been tried either. If the Fed coordinates, all boats get lifted.

But the safest low key play is probably just to hug U.S. dollars until things are a little more clear.

I am ~78% cash, with positions in CCJ, BAS and VOC, down roughly 3% in the first two weeks of the year.

Cash To 50%

748 views

Something is just…wrong here. Isn’t it?

A supermarket chain in the UK dropped that much? Wouldn’t oil have helped them? Greece plunged 11%? The EURUSD is dead, plumming along at 1.24.

These are 2009 type moves we’re seeing here. I’ve been looking at each of these events in a bottle, because I was blind to the obscene money I was making. Taken together, they spell a rather dark picture.

I didn’t sell any BAS, just CCJ, VOC and HCLP. If we get a good relief rally, well…let’s just say, I’m skittish now.

Uranium Spot Prices Continue To Soar

232 views

Approximate prices for the uranium spot market lifted another 5% from last week. We’re now well back into the $40’s.

This is what I have been waiting for, for years now. CCJ is still one of my larger holdings, and there is still time left in the year to have it be a big hit. But even if it doesn’t work out before 2014 comes to a close, 2015 will work fine too.

Japan set off the stampede. It ends gloriously.

Uranium Industry Is Healing

282 views

Most of my focus has been on the oil market lately, because when this kind of drop off built on this sparse level of evidence presents itself, you take it fully committed.

But a longstanding dark horse investment of mine has been the uranium industry. So confident in the resumption of this industry am I that every year since the Japan disaster, CCJ has been my pick for the stock of the year contest.

The sector has long been correcting and unloved. This comes from two sources.

The first source is fundamental to how uranium is bought and sold. The market volume is paper thin, and nuclear reactors remain well supplied with upwards of three years worth of fuel at all times. Unlike a coal plant, which takes delivery of fuel almost continuously throughout the year, nuclear power plants are tiny islands of isolation.

The second source is a lack of good news to build excitement in the uranium industry. Shares of uranium stocks have traded like deliveries of uranium – bidless.

Both aspects may be changing though. We are far enough out now from the Japan disaster that reactors are beginning to make adjustments to their supply agreements. As CCJ’s data has well supported, the long term supply agreements have not been prone to the massive drawdown that has plagued the uranium spot price.

Japan’s announcement that they are (finally) beginning the process of restarting reactors (after untold hardships in the face of stubbornness) is the critical breath of life missing from the equation. Nuclear stocks and uranium in particular can begin to get back on the minds of fickle fund managers. Investment can pick up in the sector.

Currently, I am showing uranium spot price in the mid to upper $30-40 range. This is a huge recovery from the high $20’s range that spot uranium was trading in just this spring.

If pricing can keep working upward, steadily, into the $40’s, I’d say we’d be getting close to a big and much needed pick me up.

Bought CCJ and OMAB

752 views

I am deploying some cash here, by buying back my old position of CCJ for $14.14, and starting a new position in OMAB for $37.78.

CCJ is a well documented position by me, and I believe the thesis holds. Uranium prices are continuing to recover. CCJ has some issues with the Canadian government they’re working through, and have been smacked around by the selloff. I think uranium will have its day soon enough. Cheap, clean power is a global commitment – to that end, the climate change crowd will at least serve some purpose for me.

OMAB is a publicly traded Mexican airport which has been growing at a double digit pace. As the American consumer continues to reap the windfall of cheap gasoline, I expect vacations will pick up. OMAB is the terminal for Cancun, as well as other locations across that region. They also are a major owner of a Puerto Rico airport.

Besides continually growing traffic, they also should get a benefit from cheap fuel prices.

OMAB was detailed in the Income Investment Report, if you want more information.

Cash stands at 60%.

The Big Question Then: How To Play EU QE?

1,260 views

The Swiss bank just announced that the ceiling they have been maintaining against the euro is to be dropped. That would make sense, since the euro is now trading below 1.17, down from almost 1.40 just earlier. In terms of the exchange rate, that had to be getting very expensive.

But the timing here should be viewed as a sign that the ECB is really about to start QE. This should be the stance because if they don’t, the impact would be minimal, but if they do you can’t be on the wrong side of the trade.

In terms of what this QE will look like…well, that is the question. What is the ECB going to buy? Not public debt, surely. How much more financing can these governments stomach with yields already negative in many countries. Even the worst countries, like Greece, are borrowing at rates that an average citizen would envy.

My guess here is two fold: (1) they buy up private financial assets similar to the mortgage program the Fed had in place, but that it will center on short term bonds, while also working with banks to create a long term financing window (EU companies and banks in particular have notoriously short term financing arrangements) and (2) they take the opportunity to absorb whatever mechanisms exactly they have been using, before now, to hide the massive debt loads that should have been coming due over the past three years.

If you forgot, Europe ended up pulling some master BS, using a combination of trade accounts to gobble up the garbage so that the markets wouldn’t have to see it default. I’m hazy on the exact specifics, but I would gamble that those imbalanced accounts are still outstanding; and my guess is they’re about to get totally monetized.

So the big question now is, where do you park money? I think that it would be very stupid to try and be short right now with central banks making big noise and seemingly readying the cannons.

If this is like past central bank action, then any longs will do – equity, commodities, debt, whatever you like. Oil could get a huge boost since it’s been so ravaged. ECB action will give the Fed room to play, especially if deflation keeps up. Yellen is no Bernanke…yet, but she also hasn’t been tried either. If the Fed coordinates, all boats get lifted.

But the safest low key play is probably just to hug U.S. dollars until things are a little more clear.

I am ~78% cash, with positions in CCJ, BAS and VOC, down roughly 3% in the first two weeks of the year.

Cash To 50%

748 views

Something is just…wrong here. Isn’t it?

A supermarket chain in the UK dropped that much? Wouldn’t oil have helped them? Greece plunged 11%? The EURUSD is dead, plumming along at 1.24.

These are 2009 type moves we’re seeing here. I’ve been looking at each of these events in a bottle, because I was blind to the obscene money I was making. Taken together, they spell a rather dark picture.

I didn’t sell any BAS, just CCJ, VOC and HCLP. If we get a good relief rally, well…let’s just say, I’m skittish now.

Uranium Spot Prices Continue To Soar

232 views

Approximate prices for the uranium spot market lifted another 5% from last week. We’re now well back into the $40’s.

This is what I have been waiting for, for years now. CCJ is still one of my larger holdings, and there is still time left in the year to have it be a big hit. But even if it doesn’t work out before 2014 comes to a close, 2015 will work fine too.

Japan set off the stampede. It ends gloriously.

Uranium Industry Is Healing

282 views

Most of my focus has been on the oil market lately, because when this kind of drop off built on this sparse level of evidence presents itself, you take it fully committed.

But a longstanding dark horse investment of mine has been the uranium industry. So confident in the resumption of this industry am I that every year since the Japan disaster, CCJ has been my pick for the stock of the year contest.

The sector has long been correcting and unloved. This comes from two sources.

The first source is fundamental to how uranium is bought and sold. The market volume is paper thin, and nuclear reactors remain well supplied with upwards of three years worth of fuel at all times. Unlike a coal plant, which takes delivery of fuel almost continuously throughout the year, nuclear power plants are tiny islands of isolation.

The second source is a lack of good news to build excitement in the uranium industry. Shares of uranium stocks have traded like deliveries of uranium – bidless.

Both aspects may be changing though. We are far enough out now from the Japan disaster that reactors are beginning to make adjustments to their supply agreements. As CCJ’s data has well supported, the long term supply agreements have not been prone to the massive drawdown that has plagued the uranium spot price.

Japan’s announcement that they are (finally) beginning the process of restarting reactors (after untold hardships in the face of stubbornness) is the critical breath of life missing from the equation. Nuclear stocks and uranium in particular can begin to get back on the minds of fickle fund managers. Investment can pick up in the sector.

Currently, I am showing uranium spot price in the mid to upper $30-40 range. This is a huge recovery from the high $20’s range that spot uranium was trading in just this spring.

If pricing can keep working upward, steadily, into the $40’s, I’d say we’d be getting close to a big and much needed pick me up.

Added To CCJ For $17.30

183 views

I upped my stake in CCJ, placing an additional 5% of my account in shares, for $17.30.

Previous Posts by Mr. Cain Thaler