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Back In The Saddle

The trials of last week were grinding and I simply exhausted myself. While this week hasn’t set up much better, I think I can at least imagine the point where I will begin to see the light reflecting off the walls from the light coming in at the end of the tunnel.

So there’s that going for me…

I want to dig into CCJ’s numbers on here, as they were impressive and caught the intelligentsia off guard. Mind you they didn’t just beat the numbers. They beat the numbers by something so stupid, I dare not even write it down.

Speak the name Fukushima again; it won’t save your predictions.

There’s a clear trend setting up in my book; BAS, CCJ, NRP, HCLP…they all have something in common, besides the massive ramp ups in price. I like what I’m seeing here, and some of their better peers seem to be confirming it.

Yes oil is selling off hard. But oil was unduly expensive, wasn’t it? Because the price was flung up in response to those tired fears. The price falling is not a problem, it’s a blessing to companies that need to see activity pick up.

The extra hour of sleep did me well. I’m refreshed, at least for the moment. See you around.

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HCLP Up Another 4% Today

Just felt you should know HCLP is continuing its run this morning…

Not much else happening though. Silver just took a second blow to the knee, and CCJ is circling the drain.

The CCJ melancholy is a three year recurring melodrama of such bad performance, I’d get up and leave my box if I didn’t own the theatre.

This is a part of the dance, which plays itself out over and over and over again.

Dispair at the state of nuclear power mixed with cowardly shareholders causes a thirty percent flush out, from which data releases eventually overcome and show to be unfounded, until optimism for a resolution of the nuclear energy concerns pushes us back to the top of the range from where the whole, trashy show can get started again.

Burlesque variety of performances have better plot lines than this…

The last round of CCJ earningst that were released showed that realized prices for CCJ’s uranium actually increased year over year, at the same time “market prices” plunged from $50 per lb to the $36 price they command today.

Until I see some data suggesting that Cameco is actually being affected by the doldrums of the rest of the nuclear energy sector, I have no reason to take any of this seriously.

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Doing Nothing – Nibbled On CCJ

I’m sitting around, being mostly quiet, while I chip my way through a rock pile of work that has managed to errupt on my desk.

I’m doing nothing, because that’s the best thing to do.

The Federal Reserve tricked you. Just admit it. There was never any intention to taper. Taper wasn’t even a real word, until they invented it and bribed the dictionary. Everything you knew was a lie.

Now, you’re petrified of a government shut down and the debt ceiling. People, despite your predilections, the GOP isn’t stupid. They’re pretty good at counting support, actually. And votes. Your party doesn’t run train for four decades by being moronic. Republican veterans are even now curb stomping the young and impetuous Tea Party losers, with flare and grace.

“RINO”s will jump ship and join Democrats in a grand bargain. Funding will be found, the debt ceiling will be raised with some small “moral victory” for the GOP, by way of future “future spending cuts”, or some such nonsense – and life will go on.

There’s no reward here for Republicans to try and be disruptive. There’s a lot of reward to just let this ship hit the iceberg, as most of the GOP have spent the last three years commandeering the lifeboats.

The debt ceiling is a sensational line of storytelling. But this is only being discussed because journalists are largely group-chatter monkeys. The causal storyline aside, I’m long and don’t care, because the Fed has my back. ~$500 billion annually will do that to a man.

I nibbled on CCJ today, because it’s cheap. My cash position stands just higher than 20%.

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Friday Afternoon Run Through Of Thoughts

It’s a Friday, and my heart isn’t in this right now. Rather, my imagination keeps running away outside to whatever’s left of Summer slipping away. This is most inopportune, since work is a runaway train.

So, here’s a brief list of things going through my mind right now.

1) War is overrated and oil is begging to get taken down a notch. Tell me when these geopolitical type scares have actually panned out? The last time was under what, Carter? The oil market is well supplied; a few oil traders are just gaming the system to make their year’s. Meanwhile, a US energy revolution is sweeping accross America.

2) Multifamily REITs selling off alongside broader REITs is as careless an act as I can think of. These companies are all 95% plus occupied with rising rates and numerous projects in the pipeline. Tell me who was forecasting that two years ago, other than myself and a handful of others? Yields are only a problem on a case by case basis. Sellers slamming the whole space here are irresponsible.

3) Coal prices and associated companies are unnecessarily low. Natural gas prices have come back nicely from the death throes they were convulsing in last year. The EPA can only do so much to legitimate, legal owners of coal producing assets. There’s this power grid we have that demands base load, after all. And even the most eco-friendly of Californian millionaires will not tolerate their precious Tesla batteries running dry. Even with natural gas transitioning taking place, there’s a price point where coal comes back online Everyone hates coal, making it pretty attractive right now.

4) I still fear for the wellbeing of Tesla longs, but I can only care so much. On a different note, there was a Seeking Alpha article about battery supply problems that made no sense. It was trying to argue that batteries will constrain Tesla production, but it pointed out that Tesla’s primary competitors are transitioning away from using the kinds of batteries that make up Tesla’s product. At most, I could see competition for batteries pushing up Tesla’s costs, keeping their vision of an affordable mainstream electric vehicle at bay (for longer than longs could survive, I might add). But at some point, Tesla forcing helping to force battery prices higher causes the electronics manufacturers to convert to the newer battery options, freeing up capacity. Besides 100,000 vehicles a year for Tesla isn’t exactly a plague of rats.

5) The natural gas and fracking boom will run further than any of you can possibly fathom. There is no reason not to buy into this. The go to corporations are the specialists who make the backbone of the extraction process (like BAS) and coporations or partnerships supplying the materials that make it all possible (I like HCLP). Risks that the frackers will saturate the market with so much gas and oil that it will collapse profits have blown over. Chesapeake energy was last year. Aubrey McClendon’s ass has been fired.

6) I’m not sure I can like this DRI position if prices for commodities keep pushing higher. But there was plenty of opportunity for the resturant business to line up cheap access to the raw foodstuffs they need for any number of months into the future. So I’m going to hope for the unexpected. Meanwhile, the job market is humming along. Now go eat at Red Lobster tonight.

7) The uranium market disgusts me. I knew it would blow out again. So far CCJ is taking the damage in stride. There’s a major fuel supply issue looming, but reactors just use up fuel so slowly, it takes forever for it all to wind its way through the system. It would be nice if the Japanese could get off their culturally slow-as-shit asses and maybe do something expediently for once in their lives. No, no, please, by all means continue to import oil and coal to your resource depleted island for sky high prices. Who needs an economy, especially with the egregious demographics problems of a nation like Japan?

8) I would rather lick an ant hill than let the sequal to the Catholic Church circa 12th century France come back to power – whether it’s crosses painted on the walls or crescents. To hell with both sides of the Syria civil war. If we’re going to let loose the arsenal, we should at least do it indiscriminately.

9) We are going higher.

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Added To CCJ and CLP

I bought more CCJ for $20.04

I bought more CLP for $23.72

Current cash stands around 40%. Yesterday’s proceeds from RGR were rolled into these two positions.

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