And BAS is down another 5% today, perhaps as a product of follow through weakness in the sector, an announcement that they intend to raise $250 million, or it’s just leading the charge after Ben Bernanke’s…um…what the hell was the point of that speech anyway?
I don’t know; you pick the reason. None of them really makes sense.
After Key Energy’s disappointing guidance, the investing world is scared – scared, mind you – of any (already highly likely and anticipated) forward guidance that is anything less than what was expected at the beginning of 2012.
Of course, the entire energy sector sold off hard between then and now, rendering all the fracking companies dirt cheap. And secretly, we all know that natural gas / oil extraction in this country is going to continue to expand voraciously. And especially so just as soon as we get some more base demand online and some natural gas price stability. Which looking at coal miners crumpling, will be coming shortly.
Hell, we don’t even need demand for natural gas – just somewhere to put the God damned stuff would suffice…
But that’s all unimportant now. If BAS should print numbers that show a lower growth rate, even though we all know it’s probably just a lull, the market is preparing to give the stock a PE ratio that reflects the disappointment in its entirety.
This is a grave mispricing, in my mind. But hey, I’m happy to embrace and buy the plunge. Both Obama and Romney appear to be very accommodating to the drilling taking place in this country. And to me, energy services companies are still the best way to try and play a bottom in natural gas prices without actually getting beneath that falling piano.
Meanwhile, BAS persists in being one of the only energy services companies that actually has any cash on hand. They’re about to have $250 million more. If we get the slowdown everyone is bracing for, I can tell you without hesitation it will kill dozens of the weaker players. They have no cash on hand; no buffer to absorb shock.
With BAS, I’m looking ahead, to a time when natural gas production is expanding again, even slower than it was this past year; to when natural gas demand has grown on the backs of cheap volumes; and to where BAS is one of the only remaining players.