I’m going out on a limb here, to say that this market is being heavily influenced by the power of raw probabilities being taken sharply out of context.
There’s no other reason I can think of to explain this rally.
All the qualitative analytics, and all the numbers on the ground, are very bad. Safe haven treasuries are going ape shit to the upside. The Germans are slowly abandoning the EU to death. China is as gay as ever.
But for the last two years in a row, we’ve rallied into the waning months of the year. And I can’t enjoy a drink poolside without overhearing clowns talking about presidential year market statistics.
So, I’m laying my guess out there. We’re rallying because in their very souls, most men will not hesitate to lay down on train tracks if you offer them some money. They’ll do so without even bothering to check if there’s a train coming.
Now, this works just fine for me, as I’ve sort of skedaddled off to the side. I guessed something like this would happen – although if you’d asked me earlier in the year, I would have pinned October.
But make absolutely no mistake, if we don’t get some major event facilitating all this good will in the markets, there will be hell to pay. I’m scared to be on scene, when the guy lays across the tracks just in time for the locomotive to carry him to the 6 o’clock news…
4 Responses to Statistics Traders Gone Wild
LOL. Great write up.
AAII bullish sentiment is 30.2%, it’s 15th straight week below the historical average (39%) and the longest streak below average since 1993.
In no way is this a precise indicator, but it makes it tough to get excited about a major top.
Everyone hates this rally. Where are all the pollyannas talking about the PCLN / AAPL / GOOG ‘race to 1000′?
Very true. And if the a-bullish crowd start to panic they’re missing out, this could run REAL high.
We rallied like a mother until 7/22 last year. Same deal here.
You think so? That’s be interesting, if we started to bomb in the first week of August.