Warily Optimistic From All The Pessimism

Hello, and I hope the new week finds you well.

My own weekend was quite nice, filled with beer from local microbreweries and good food.

I have just finished some leftover prosciutto-wrapped tilapia, actually, which we made last night; garnished with fresh zucchini and squash, and topped with some delectable Kalamata olive – all covered in liberal amounts of lemon pepper – and served with a side glass of Sauvignon Blanc.

As for the markets; I am all too aware that we are approaching the season where – for two years in a row now – my entire strategy has gotten clobbered without mercy.

I wonder, what will it be this year?

Perhaps scientists will discover that all uses of silver can be replaced with pop rocks?

Maybe, AEC goes bankrupt?

Or the UN puts forth a treaty, signed by all nations, permanently banning all power generation from uranium?

The possibilities are delightfully endless. All I know for sure is that October is a horrible month, and I hate it.

Now, I am opting to hold a hefty cash position with a large side of silver, just in case we get massive intervention. This is as opposed to outright shorting of stocks or commodities.

I’m as realistic as ever about the chances of a recovery here. There’s just too much drag on the system; and we’re “blessed” to have all the wrong people in charge just when we need real intelligence to implement reforms.

But if we’re to go down from here, I will profit from having a cash position, not generating cash flow from short positions. It’s too risky, in my opinion, that the market reverses and runs higher into the Winter months.

Firstly, shopping picks up in the winter.

Secondly, we have to be getting nearer to some desperate moves getting made by desperate people.

And thirdly, the market HAS run higher in the Fall for the past two years. The statistics crowd should be all over this.

So I’m not really gung ho about the economy or much of markets. But I have relearned how to step aside and let the crowd exhaust itself before reasserting my dominance.

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