I came closer than I care to admit, in the final fifteen minutes of trading, to selling my entire ERY position, going to massive cash, and calling it that.
So close, yet I just can’t do it. The prospects of brutal selloffs in energy names are just too tantalizing to give up on.
The contraction in Europe is not stopping this weekend. Their problem is far too immense for that. No, this is not a simple issue of them simply rebranding themselves, fools.
They have daunting sums of debt all coming due at this exact moment. That’s what’s really dragging them back into the abyss. Not fucking confidence…
Nothing they do now will change that.
Pardon me, but you do not simply absorb twice your outstanding monetary supply over a one year time span, without there being some fucking repercussions.
Hyperinflation is certainly a possible outcome here, so I wouldn’t bet against the commodities outright, just now. Particularly if the Europeans are organizing themselves, they may steal up to do something desperate. Eventually, the commodities will collapse from this, from sheer demand destruction, but they can double in price between then and now on nothing but fear and fleeing hot money.
Rather, I’m focusing on the suppliers of refined products with ERY. If defaults shock the region, or they simply try to print away their problems – either road leads to further economic contraction. If you don’t like that, go back in time and bitch smack the idiots who set the world up for this.
I don’t care, though. So don’t complain to me about it.
But in order to placate my mind a little, and lock in some more of these recent gains, I raised my APC position to full size, for $64.06 a share. I love the company, and even if it sells off, I can be at peace owning it. It will complement the ERY shares nicely, forming a sort of partial hedge.
Best case scenario for me is a brutal selloff that lets me unwind the ERY shares for much higher, while leaving me owning everything I want, with cash to strategically add.