Yeah, markets sure are awesome at pricing in events before they happen – per some of the chaps who were ostracizing me for warning about the dangers of going long a currency under the management of a peoples with long histories of nationalism.
My favorite was the pebble who tried to tell me Sarkozy was polling ahead of Hollande, just a few weeks ago. Wishful thinking.
But, more than just this one election, this weekend we got to watch with joy as extreme socialist and nationalist parties pulled ahead across Europe, propelled by ignorance of disgruntled masses.
I told you before, the EU is coming apart. If not by a direct failure of finances, then by a direct insurrection of her disperse and very heterogeneous countrymen.
The problem is that the US is not inside a bubble. These developments do affect us. And while Ben can perhaps manage the dollar in such a way that eases Europe’s monetary problems (within reason), there is nothing he can do to prevent political revolution from sweeping across the EU.
4 Responses to Why Don’t You Buy Some $EURUSD?
You don’t thing that after a bit of posturing post election, Hollande et al across Europe won’t get in line and start goose stepping to Merkel’d drum?
You may be correct, but it’s still one more level of uncertainty for the market to deal with. The same market that has no idea how far the Germans are willing to be pushed before they decide to cut their losses.
No, I don’t actually think they will.
I’m thinking we see more europeans kicked out office this year and more revolution type activity from the people. The lack of decisiveness and policy changes will continue.