This game where my positions lose all ways is wearing thin. If the golden tale is that oil must go higher, can we at least get some follow through to other sectors.
Point of information: the Canadian dollar, as assumed to be backed by Canada’s vast fields of oil and other bountiful natural resources, is just a little below par with the dollar. This strength, at a time when the euro is collapsing and treasury yields have never been lower, is solely a product of the strength of crude oil at this point in time.
CCJ is a Canadian uranium mining company. Recently, CCJ lost a stupid sum of money. They did this because they hedged against (one might say they went so far as to bet on) renewed dollar weakness.
They blew that call.
So the company was shedding $3 million in profit for ever one cent move higher against the Canadian dollar. $1.10 would have resulted in all profits for the company vanishing.
So where are we now? Well, the Canadian dollar is much stronger against the U.S. dollar that it was back in November. The rally in oil that has so mercilessly bit my hand has simultaneously graced my Cameco Corporation, which no longer needs to fear about their ill-devised “hedges” ripping a hole the size of a cantaloupe out of their chests.
And how have the markets responded?
Nothing.
CCJ gets no love. The force that directly hammers me indirectly gives me no benefit, when it most definitely should. CCJ trades below $20, holding me at vast losses when it should be getting a reprieve. This isn’t the end of the world; I’m a long term holder of CCJ and this is probably a buying opportunity, if I hadn’t already bought at these levels.
My point is, if the world is going to be insane, be insane. But please, can it just be consistently insane?
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What will it take in your mind to get CCJ Moving? I have a little here, but what levels if you werent full would you add>
Thanks
I’m just using an exponential price target, so from my first purchase, I’m hitting every 15-20% point lower. As of right now, I have some in the high $17’s, so my next buy would probably be in the $15’s, if CCJ gets that low.
Remember that price targets have nothing to do with this; this is long term buy and hold of a company that has a business model I believe is being underestimated. But because of its situation (Fukashima), and CCJ’s continued downward trend, it could take a very, very long time for people to get the confidence to step in.
Sometimes, when you buy these smoking businesses, they recover in months (APC). Sometimes, they recover in years (looking increasingly like CCJ).
If you fuck up, sometimes they never recover at all. But I don’t think that’s what I have here.
if I didn’t like you so much I would call you a whiner
just go with the flow
No thank you. High-stepping down an active runway at our local airport is not my idea of success-bringing behavior.
Watch out for the cross currents. The Canadian dollar is fucked because of our housing market.
I haven’t heard much about Canadian housing, except for when one or two of you comes over here to talk about it – how bad is it? Can you give some numbers to put things into perspective?
I’m just looking to satisfy my curiosity.
I pay $3000 a month to rent a three br house in a great neighborhood, best schools in Vancouver, 80 yards from a monster park, a lot that that is 30% larger than avg. etc.
Seems outrageous to me to pay that rent, but the owner turned down $1.8 mil from rich-as-fuck-Chinese, who are taking over – bidding up to $2 mill for perfectly sound homes, tearing them down, then rebuidling, and trying to sell them for $4 mill.
So much cheaper to rent than to buy.
The best part:
— Sorry, Charry, your model is now broken, and rents are dropping fast as these douchers can’t get their money out of their houses.
BTW: the $1.8 mil offer was a bubbilicious 80% return after holding for almost exactly 5 years. Glad he didn’t take it, and now I can get even more house etc, in even better location, for $2700. When the houses are sub $1 mill I might take a nibble – incomes have shrunk here, and the only activity continues to come from Beijing and Shanghai…
So sorry…
Wow, that’s a lot for rental. Well if things start to pop, be sure to drop by and give us the heads up, won’t you?
Thanks for you reponce earlier. I like CCJ and value your insights