I told you the God damned Europeans would disappoint. They’re disappointments. What else did you expect?
As Italy tells the world to fuck itself, while Germany, Norway, and Finland insist no new euros will be printed, and France being desperate not to lose its credit rating, any hope of a real solution being offered tomorrow withers away.
Not that it would have made a difference anyway. The EU was bringing $600 billion to a $1.4 trillion + problem. That’s like a porn star with erectile dysfunction; not going to cut it in the film business.
Let’s say they agreed to backstop Italy’s debt, as opposed to actually bailing Italy out directly. Well, great, you know where that leaves Italy? Still needing to raise $1 trillion…fat fucking chance any bond trader in the private sector would be looking to pile into that situation.
“Hey asshole, how would you like to invest with me so you can lose 60% when I default in three months?”
In Europe, you’ve got four major countries and every single banking operation competing for limited financing. Yet I’m hearing people chant “well this is just like 1998.” HOW THE FUCK IS THIS LIKE 1998?
In 1998, we had some shit ass countries default on peanuts. That triggered massive problems with one major institution which was then bailed out by banks who otherwise had plenty of cash.
Here, we have four central countries defaulting on more money than they have in circulation combined, while their entire financial sector gets lynched by runs on their reserves.
But hey, keep buying stocks because you think the Fed is about to unleash QE3. It won’t change Europe and you’ll still lose.
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Even with this awesome run in ERY, due to recent events (AKA, this total BS oil run of the last few weeks) I’m thinking of selling the position instead of holding it over night. What say you, Mr. Cain?
what awesome run of ERY are you talking about, it dropped 14 bucks from 10/4, and now up a buck from the bottom …
I picked it up this morning @$13.55 as I mentioned in one of Cain’s earlier posts. I’ve decided to hold onto it.
The run in crude oil will be broken very soon. Unconfirmed prospects of QE3 cannot trump the demand destruction of half of a continent defaulting.
Even real QE3 probably cannot undo that.
Thanks for your response, sir. I figured it was getting close to reversal time, would be nice if it would drop back to the 70’s.
Trust me, I’m right there with you, short oil/equities/Euro since last week. There is no possible chance the Euro Currency can sustain these levels. Za-Germans are the EU’s last line of defense, and they’re printing Deutche Marks!
“That’s like a porn star with erectile dysfunction; not going to cut it in the film business.”
No greater analogy has ever been scribed.
About time this bullshit run slammed into the wall.
Nyeaaa. Where’s your Moses now? See?
Lol
I’m with you on the bear thesis, but just throwing this out there for consideration – Could it be that a rapid reversal in expectations leads to an epic buying the news tomorrow? For almost a month the market rallied on hope, now suddenly in the past day it has become pessimistic about Europe not meeting expectations, and probably a selloff will intensify tomorrow morning, but then europe could knock one out of the park with room for the market to run since expectations were lowered.
Sure if everything in Europe is fine of course we can go higher.
I remarked earlier in the 12631, commodities up independent of market movements seems to confirm the “QE trade” is back on the table. It is just retarded they are allowed to run the price of oil up when so many businesses are already struggling. Apparently the invisible hand of the market is big on fucking people.
Or is it just convenient that one member of the Fed said “QE3 was possible” just before the European announcement. So, if they disappoint we start falling from a higher point, thus giving the Fed more time before they have to step in.
It’s like the fading argument. Do you fade the underlying sentiment, or do you fade the faders? IMHO there are too many ways to look at it and too many ways to screw up to accurately trade on such ideas.
Only macro idea I’m willing to bet on right now is the one Cain has been pounding the table with for so long.
Europe will probably screw this up.
As Paul Tudor Jones once said about OPEC, “Whenever you need 13 countries to agree to something in order to form a resolution, I will bet against that every time.”
I don’t know who was buying oil today, or why. What I do think I know is that the Fed will wait until after commodities have taken a hit to intervene, but preferably before some larger institution collapses.
Good article written today:
The Dark Inventory of Crude Oil:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/MJ26Dj02.html
Wow. That’s a great read.