Live and Let Die

Fare thee well, Mubarak.  You’ll probably have the last laugh.

Look, between you and me, I hate authoritarianism and I am glad for the Egyptians that they’re taking the route to democracy.  But be realistic here; democracy is not coming to Egypt.

The country has to import almost half of all its food, it has dwindling known oil reserves, decreasing output in those fields it does have, and a shit ton of hot sand and sprawling deserts.

Unless Egypt becomes the glass making capital of the world, there really isn’t much to be had there.

All this in my book spells starvation.  And now, thanks to crippling the quasi-elected individual, the Egyptians have succeeded in empowering the military.  That’s a funny relationship – if protestors start throwing shoes at a freelance military government, I wonder how long it’ll be before the military starts “throwing” bullets.

And meanwhile, the US under the “inspiring” leadership of the Obama administration has managed to completely befuddle both friends and allies alike into second guessing what it is we want.

That’s not healthy.  People don’t like to see a country which has global operations and a thousand plus warhead strong nuclear arsenal waffle like a pancake.  If you think people hate the US when we’re determined, well – at least we’re predictable.

But the US with its head up its ass is probably more concerning to global governments.  The Wikileaks documents that I’ve bothered to read have painted a fairly clear picture that no one likes unstable nuclear forces.  That’s what the Iran situation is really all about: nut jobs don’t get that kind of power.

So in a few weeks, the current administration has succeeded in completely upending the policy of three decades, right out from underneath the feet of people who have backed us for at least that long, while creating an atmosphere that is ideal for other foreign dictators (namely ones who aren’t as kind to us as Mubarak) to get a footing in the country.

Brilliant…

But ultimately, this is going to come to rest at the feet of the protestors.  If they had waited until September, their economy probably could have been saved.  It should be obvious that we wouldn’t have backed Mubarak again, what with the turmoil that he started.  A kinder, gentler, and decidedly fanatic free alternative may have been found.

But they wouldn’t have that, so now they’re going to get a military led government crackdown, Iran-backed Sharia proponents, economic turmoil as foreign investments flee the country, riots over remaining scarce resources, and wavering and indecisive support from the world’s largest and most disciplined armed forces.

Yes, altogether, Mubarak will be smiling and fine, off on a beach somewhere.  Before the end, many of those who protested against him these past weeks will regret that choice, as the greater of evils reveals that Mubarak’s government was actually the lesser.

Watch closely, as the all the ingredients are here for one of the greatest tragedies we’ve ever witnessed.  Will it come to pass?  Who knows?  But with a country like Egypt which is decidedly not self sufficient, you can bet that if things swing the wrong way, many of the people you saw on television over the last days will be starving to death soon.  If the country should isolate itself like with what the Gaza strip residents did, well…just remember Egypt’s population is much, much greater than Gaza.

This isn’t going to be pretty.  Thankfully, I don’t have any investments that are directly sensitive to this bullshit.  I’m going to stay that way.

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