Developing…
Comments »Hammered by My Hammers
Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today. Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today. Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!
That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices. I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten. I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?
For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo. The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight. This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration, so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.
As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio. I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated. It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you. Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well. It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio.
As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account. As it’s too complex (and annoying) to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table. I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well. Your comments are welcome.
I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below. I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now. I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here.
Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO. Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all. I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6% intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again. The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]]. Best to you all.
| Name | 17-Jun | 18-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.88 | $ 28.18 | -2.42% | Will sell half on a break of $28. Gap fill at $26.60 | |
| EGO | 8.65 | 7.97 | -7.86% | Trend line @ 7.78. Bearish engulfing says we get it. | |
| GDX | 38.23 | 37.20 | -2.69% | Failed hammer, back to support. | |
| GLD | 92.35 | 91.60 | -0.81% | POG $934, within yest range | |
| IAG | 9.65 | 9.10 | -5.70% | Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75 | |
| MON | 81.08 | 82.30 | 1.50% | Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive. | |
| NRP | 22.13 | 21.95 | -0.81% | 5 red days in a row? C’mon already! | |
| PAAS | 20.39 | 18.59 | -8.83% | Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off. | |
| RGLD | 43.73 | 41.98 | -4.00% | Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying | |
| SLV | 14.12 | 13.97 | -1.06% | POSilver @14.24, inside day | |
| SLW | 8.80 | 8.30 | -5.68% | Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26 | |
| SSRI | 19.22 | 18.13 | -5.67% | Do not like this action one bit. | |
| TBT | 54.17 | 55.76 | 2.94% | Gap @ 54.21. Could come back once more. | |
| TC | 10.50 | 10.50 | 0.00% | Perfect doji day. | |
| TCK | 15.31 | 16.28 | 6.34% | Nice first day on the job. | |
| AVG (daily) | -2.32% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -8.32% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 13.91% | ||||
| Cash ( 000’s) | $ 4.61 | ||||
These Fibs Don’t Lie
Well it was a day so full of hammers in the Jacksonian portfolio that we could have built a break front works that would have repelled the stoutest of cavalries. You can see my comments in the notes about them, but generally a lot of hammers means that you are seeing final bottomings in stocks as they open high, chase a bunch of sells lower and then close high again, working out final selling positions.
I say this happens “generally,” but we shall see what happens tomorrow. The good news is we’ve gotten to pretty oversold conditions in almost all of the Jacksons, so those of you who have been picking up bargainst these last few days, bravo. I think we shall see some action as we head towards the end of the week. As it’s options expiry, I hope it’s not that X-rated kind of action no sensible gentleperson wants to see.
I was doing some work on fibs, but I have to run to a lacrosse game, so my findings will have to wait until an addenda is readied with my findings. Let’s just say these ten year fibonaccis are, in the words of Commander Spock “Quite fascinating, Jim.”
Many apologies to those not named Jim.
Here are the “notes,” I will talk to youse latah.
| Name | 16-Jun | % Change | 17-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 29.04 | $ 28.88 | -0.55% | Still in triangle consolidation. | ||
| EGO | 8.51 | 8.65 | 1.65% | Bullish engulfing, two days black now. | ||
| GDX | 38.37 | 38.23 | -0.36% | Nice hammer on the day, despite slight down. | ||
| GLD | 91.93 | 92.35 | 0.46% | POG $940, beautiful hammer. | ||
| IAG | 9.54 | 9.65 | 1.15% | Hammer off the 23.6% fib, too. | ||
| MON | 81.62 | 81.08 | -0.66% | Opened down, nice recovery. | ||
| NRP | 22.44 | 22.13 | -1.38% | Red hammer just above the 38.2% (22.05) | ||
| PAAS | 20.74 | 20.39 | -1.69% | Held support at $20, oversold like a mothah! | ||
| RGLD | 42.90 | 43.73 | 1.93% | Bouncing on 43.50, another EOD selloff? | ||
| SLV | 13.99 | 14.12 | 0.93% | POSilver @14.34, $13.80 support held | ||
| SLW | 8.92 | 8.80 | -1.35% | Hammer on $8.50 support, nice trade PPT! | ||
| SSRI | 19.62 | 19.22 | -2.04% | I bot it one last time as promised! $19.02. | ||
| TBT | 53.59 | 54.17 | 1.08% | Bot back 1/2 my calls today as promised. | ||
| TC | 10.68 | 10.50 | -1.69% | Caught support @ 9.60 and then took off. Hammer. | ||
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Is TCK the replacement, let’s hear your vote! | ||
| AVG (daily) | -0.17% | |||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.44% | |||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.22% | |||||
______________________________
PS — note the final comment on TSO, which goes away soon. I am seriously thinking of adding [[TCK]] which I added today at $15.04, to the Jacksons. It’s only serious competition is [[BHP]]. What say youse?
Comments »Green Shoots in Gold Fields?
Oh I had a great picture for today. You shoulda seen it. Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters, carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.
Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers. You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant. So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.
On to today. First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick: I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays. If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well. Short version: natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.
So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate. The door is still open for your suggestions.
Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!). I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd., which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!) 61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%). I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.
I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here. For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N” juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley. As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94. Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.
I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already. I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again. Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already. Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!
I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance. In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.
| Name | 15-Jun | 16-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 28.83 | $ 29.04 | 0.73% | Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle. | |
| EGO | 8.28 | 8.51 | 2.78% | Nice junior-joining movement at EOD. | |
| GDX | 37.97 | 38.37 | 1.05% | Nice inside day, showing a change of direction. | |
| GLD | 91.10 | 91.93 | 0.91% | POG back to $935, nice step. | |
| IAG | 9.25 | 9.54 | 3.14% | Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today. | |
| MON | 84.97 | 81.62 | -3.94% | Sued by rival, still on trend. | |
| NRP | 22.99 | 22.44 | -2.39% | 38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry | |
| PAAS | 20.95 | 20.74 | -1.00% | 20.70 support held, still flabby. | |
| RGLD | 41.81 | 42.90 | 2.61% | Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future? | |
| SLV | 13.83 | 13.99 | 1.16% | PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16) | |
| SLW | 9.25 | 8.92 | -3.57% | Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” | |
| SSRI | 19.92 | 19.62 | -1.51% | If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. | |
| TBT | 55.49 | 53.59 | -3.42% | Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53 | |
| TC | 11.05 | 10.68 | -3.35% | Support bounce at $10.40. Still w “the market?” | |
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it. | |
| AVG (daily) | -0.45% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -7.28% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 16.47% | ||||
Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either, but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).
Wednesday Morning Update: Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02. Bouncing on lower channel and support.
Wednesday Morning Update: Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us. I may add a little here as well.
Wednesday Morning Update: RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12. Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%). This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know. Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: I may have found the new Jacksonian. I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52). I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.
Wednesday Afternoon Update: Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today. Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!
Comments »Call for Enlistment!
With the summary dimissal of [[TSO]] this week, I have an opening in the ranks I’d like to fill. In fact, I may open the barracks to two or more if the stars align properly and there are attractive combatants ready to take the pledge to hard money and portfolio longevity that our General Jackson demands.
One course I’m considering is having the Jacksons act as a 20-man platoon, with certain soldiers being held either partially or fully in reserve during times of either overvaluation or imminent reversal, whilst the others take up the battle against the Federal Reserve and it’s 12-battalion band of Redcoat brigands. I believe I will represent this through a “going to cash” metric that I will include in my daily reports.
For example, my sale of TSO resulted in a net cash position of $9,357 (a little more than a $640 loss from the original $10,ooo invested). While TSO will soon come off the roles entirely, I will keep that cash for reinvestment purposes going forward, thereby keeping the Jacksonian Portfolio to the same accounting I’m using in my own portfolio.
This method will also help better track my partial sales, like my “one third” position sale in [[TC]] the other day at $11.21, which would have yielded me an additional $5,250 in cash (keep in mind, the original $10,000 in TC was invested at $7.11 on May 1st. Therefore, even after having sold a third, I have over $11,000 in value remaining ).
So given those two sales, my cash position is up to $14,600, and burning a hole im m’ pocket.
I will work on adding these cash parameters so you can have a better idea of what I’m doing every day in my portfolio, and a better view on how I’m hedging the port against cyclical downturns.
In the meantime, I welcome suggestions with regard to additional Jacksons. I can tell you now that the precious players will have a leg up and [[GG]] and [[AUY]] remain in the top contenders. That said, I will look forward to your calls here. Remember that I like liquidity, and volatility is not a plus in the Jacksonian fold. Long term value trumps all, however, especially in the context of an inflationary or continuing deflationary market.
Best to you all.
___________________
Addendum: Forgive the indulgence. I have one last tribute for my girl’s nativity. Appropriately, it’s a song about a heart-stealing Kentucky woman, from the master himself, back before his voice went out altogether:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iq7ZkdNNPKI 450 300]
Comments »Bloody Redcoats!
Today was that rarest of days — an entirely red painted day for the Jacksonians. Even when the PM’s are having one of their regular group regurgitations, I can usually count on MON or NRP, or one of my less precious groups like TC , sturdy TBT or even blessed Mr. ANDE to come to my aid. But not today.
All bloody red. Impaled on the hard cold grounds of Boston to the tune of some 2.5% down.
But that’s the breaks when you are building a hard money portfolio that was up some 25% in a month. You are going to have to expect some pullbacks and yes, drawdowns. We will talk about certain hedging strategies over the weekend and I will have a later post tonight to go over the specific individual Jacksons and some of my other picks in more detail.
For now, it’s off to a well-deserved libation and the start of my weekend. I will see you all later tonight with the roundup.
Addendum: I did add some today but just a bit. 1,000 shs of [[TIE]] at $11.01 and 1,000 shs of [[CDE]] at $12.50. They looked like they had pulled back to some stability. We’ll see, as I plan to add more of both in future.
Special Addendum: Vincenzo explains to Fly what happened with the servers this afternoon:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KsU89R1A8M 450 300]
____________________________________________
Update: “Bloody” Jacksonian Results for Today:
| Name | 11-Jun | 12-Jun | % Change | Comments | |
| ANDE | $ 30.70 | $ 29.79 | -2.96% | Nice move down, next stop 20day–$26.40 | |
| EGO | 9.15 | 8.79 | -3.93% | Hung right on the 50-day @ 8.74 | |
| GDX | 40.92 | 39.54 | -3.37% | 50 day at $38.39 | |
| GLD | 93.70 | 92.17 | -1.63% | POG under $940. | |
| IAG | 10.08 | 9.85 | -2.28% | 50-day @ 9.44. | |
| MON | 86.85 | 86.54 | -0.36% | Relative strength is strong here. | |
| NRP | 24.21 | 23.85 | -1.49% | Right on the 20-day line at 23.63 | |
| PAAS | 22.61 | 22.04 | -2.52% | Tested 20 day holding here. | |
| RGLD | 43.92 | 42.64 | -2.91% | Bounced off 50-day EMA @ 42.22 | |
| SLV | 15.13 | 14.63 | -3.30% | PO Silver down 56 cent. | |
| SLW | 10.26 | 10.05 | -2.05% | Held 20 day trendline pretty well. | |
| SSRI | 22.81 | 21.95 | -3.77% | Closed just a hair below 20 day EMA | |
| TBT | 57.52 | 56.59 | -1.62% | Continued pull back. 20 day @ 54.90 | |
| TC | 12.13 | 11.76 | -3.05% | Even TC needed a rest today. | |
| TSO | 14.98 | 14.98 | 0.00% | Flat, sold out. | |
| AVG (daily) | -2.35% | ||||
| AVG (monthly) | -2.67% | ||||
| AVG (inception) | 22.40% |
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