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Again, I hate to keep apologizing, but I’ve had a devil of a time with my “new” lap-top computer recently, and I couldn’t even get a proper “boot” last night.  This is extremley distressing as the damn thing is only about a month out of Best Buy.  I am running the diagnostic tests on it now, and am hoping that it’s just a Microshaft glitch and not something more serious.

Anyway, I’d promised yesterday to take a look at Fly’s OPEN, which I was persusing via chart-service last night.  

First, a caveat: I know nothing about this business, save for having used it a number of times, and thinking it’s a nice niche for “first mover” exploitation.  I rely on Fly to do all that Graham-Dodd like analysis on these things.    That said, the chart is very promising — especially if we get a pullback from this recent parabolic spike.

Note that I’ve identified three zones of purchase, the first of which is “most likely” and the second and third descending in likelihood while ascending in desireability.  

The first zone is actually a target line as opposed to a “zone,” and it’s merely set at the retrace of the original breakout point on March 22nd at $96.00.

The next two zones are based on the two past largest “price-volume” bars, which tend to connote resistance and support areas for the charted stocks.  Obviously, that second PV bar down is the stronger of the two, and in my mind, the “all in-zone.”

My strategy here is to go in one third at level one ($96.00), one third at level two ($90-93.00),  and then the last third on a break back above level one again. 

If we break down to that second “all-in zone” of support (unlikely, I think),  I will not only put the last third on then, but will likely add some leverage to the position.   As a matter of risk management, I would then take the leverage off after a break of that key $100 zone again.

Best to you all.

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What do I always say to you about dire times?  You want to buy gold, silver… and pasta of course.   What are you going to do, eat heavy metals that are far more useful worked into cheery adornments and dental hardware? 

No, of course not.  

In times of rising food prices, you want to eat staples that will fill your belly while providing you the carbo-rush you need to get you through those crucial trading hours between early morning sugar frosted bombs (and coffee) and late afternoon Butterfingers bar from the vending machine (and cawfee).

You need pasta to fill your demanding gut.   With some red gravy, or maybe some butter, or a light slathering of pesto.   You want the hot hot penne, the tri-color wagon wheels, the masticola.   So, it seems,  do many others, if judging by today’s nice action amidst Col. Kurtz’s “horror the horror” market show (brought to you be Procter & Gamble) will attest.

Check what this li’l beauty did today among the carnage that is all things not precious metals:

Now granted, this sucker had good numbers today… with expanding gross and net operating margins.   That’s all good, but you know that the real reason for [[AIPC]] ‘s increasingly good numbers is “the new frugality.” 

Embrace it, pop it in your mouth, swish it aroun your tongue.   It’s the latest thing.

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Not the latest thing is the relative strength of gold and to some extent, silver, in this downdraft.   Yes, even with [[UUP]] threatening $25 again, and the dollar index (DXY) being over $85 this afternoon, it seems the PM’s are holding their own.   This bodes very well for them on any reduction of the dollar’s recent climb.

That said, my perfomers today were [[GLD]] and [[SLV]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and [[EXK]] and [[GDX]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , my favourite here.

I like all the PM’s until further notice… they’ve decoupled from the dollar, and that can only be a good thing.

I also got hammered today in Monsanto Company [[MON]] and [[TBT]] , as was so kindly pointed out by my own personal troll.   Amazingly, I bot some more MON just below $60, though not far enough below.  I continue to like both names.

I am near exhaustion level, ladies and germs, business is that crazy.   I’m sorry I didn’t get to post a new one to you intraday today, but I will try to be there, at least through the comment section, in doozy dozy days like today.  Be safe, as Fly says, but look for the rebound here tomorrow.

My best to you all.

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It’s no secret that I think we’re due a substantial pullback off this 23-week Lorne Green’s Bonanza move we’ve had here, and I’m thinking it will probably come this week, if it’s going to come before the 2010 sell-off my colleague Mssr. le Fly has bruted recently.

One faithful guide I’ve used here many times to plot my course is the trusty Dow Transports [[TRAN]] of Charles Dow’s  Theory fame.    On the following weekly chart, you can see they are approaching an important Fibonacci level — the 61.8% Golden Ratio line, the strongest of the fibonacci levels in my experience:

Note that we are only one short thrust, a cut-purse’s dirk, as it were, from that magic level, at right around $4,215 on the index.  In fact, if we have another day like we had today on the Trannies, we will get there tomorrow.   This will be key an indicator for me as to whether to cover my hedges, or press them further.

For those of you looking for a solid play for après ski-jump,  you know already I’m a strong proponent of game changing technology.  I think Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] owns it, and will be the leader in LED technology as it advances to light our world on only a fraction of the energy and cost of traditional incandescents.   

All without K-cups.

It doesn’t hurt that CREE’s chart is nothing short of a monster, which indicates people far smarter than me are ready to finally back this innovative company after a long period of gestation.  Lookee here at this weekly trend:

You will note above that I believe this slightly overstretched beauty should get a pullback into the $47.50-ish range.  It’s a strong buy — with two fists — there, I’d argue.

Best to you all, tomorrow.

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Don’t let anyone ever tell you bear markets are tough. At least bears are conditioned for rapid snap-backs and so set tight stops and get the heck out of Dodge when the inevitable reversals come.

But try trading a true, secular bull if you want some real whiplash action. The older these things get, the more ornery and difficult to ride.

Take for instance the gold and silver plays we’ve visited in the last week. You wouldn’t know you were in the midst of a nine-year secular bull with the wall of worry we’ve been climbing since our original early month break over $1,000 in POG.

And yet, despite the pullback under $1,000, there’s no question we are still in a strong bull in the precious metals, and the dollar is still in a death spiral, despite it’s launch today. Still, I lightened on some leverage today, as a result of [[SLV]] dropping below it’s long term 61.8% fib at $16.04. Specifically, I got rid of the 40 $9 strike December Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls I’d bought a few days earlier. I’m not sure silver will stay under $16 here, but prudence forced my hand on this one.

For that, I’ll never forgive Prudence.

Still loaded to the gills on the precious plays, and gold looks like it’s remaining close to the $1,000 mark even as the price of silver plunges down near $16, a significant level, I believe, as that makes gold over 62x the price of silver. That can’t last in this market.

I am going to continue to sit on my hands as I’ve been doing, and work the margins for the most part. If you feel you must trade, I’d focus on the more volatile plays, like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] which will likely experience a pretty frightening bounce here in the next two or so days.

For Prudence and her crew, I like [[GDX]] , which may drop all the way to $42.50 here first. I also will look to accumulate Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] — my superstar– if it gets any cheaper. This is a great place to start on RGLD as well, if you have not yet had the chance. [[CDE]] will also bounce hard, when it finally decides to do so.

Patience.

That’s all for now… more tomorrow in the comments section.

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Did you take some action today? Were you nimble? Were you quick?

I’ll have you know today I, “Jack,” jumped many a candlestick, whilst running away from ex-Nazi dentists with maddeningly persistent, OSHA-oriented questions.

Did you?

I’m not going to mess around posting a bunch of charts, mostly as so many of them look the same with their one day reversal candles… but I’m going to say it here and leave it up to challenge. Today was a gift from the PM stock gods.

You see, today was the day “they” — the Operators — were going to shake the tree on all the trepeditious weak hands in the PM sector.  They were going to drive gold below $1,000 and then knock you over the head with a sockful of nickles to see how many positions you’d drop onto the ground for them to Hoover up.

And they were successful — to a point.  They were able to force gold below the $1k surface for a little more than two hours of trading this morning (NYSE hours) before, like a dirty beach ball in the Coney Island medical wash, it broke out above the waves again and headed higher. As I type (11:15 pm), POG is almost $1008 again, and POS is approaching $17. I’m betting we see more recovery tomorrow.

The same thing that happened to physical gold and silver happened across the precious metal mining sector. Very rare was the singular breakout like our previously recommended Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] , “the Latina Beauty.”

No, most of our names offered instead outstanding opportunities to buy at deep discounts today.  Just pull the chart on any Jacksonian or other oft-mentioned PM name and note the reversal dojis as they roared to recovery, some all the way to the green.

And yes I took advantage, though I announced only to The PPT today, as I mentioned I would. And no, I don’t mean to torture you like Sir Laurence Olivier with a rusty dental drill, but… well…

You see, I think we are in trading this Fall in very opportune times, and I want to make sure the people kind enough to keep this worthy site going “in custom” as it were, are rewarded with first dibs on choice observations.

So please don’t think me unkind, but rather, think of me as merely giving you yet another incentive– by way of whirring dental drill– to at least take a peek at The PPT…  for your own “toothsome good,” as it were.

Here’s an (edited) log of my announcements on The PPT‘s famed User Notes today:

10:30 & 11:15 am— Bot 15k shares [[CVM]] @ 1.90 (blended)

11:03 am— Bot 40 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] December $9 strike calls @3.60, (SLW @ $12.12)

11:45 am — Bot 1k more [[PAAS]] @ $22.84

11:51 am — announced “POG back over $1,000 oz. again, if you blinked you missed it.”

12:02 pm — announced a potential new flag break formation on Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] .

1:07 pm — Bot another 2k of BZH @ $5.75 (limit order placed at 12:10 filled)

1:22 pm — Took advantage of the huge discount in IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and added another 2k @ $13.66 right as it bounced off the upward sloping trendline.

1:36 pm — pointed out the (then 12%) breakout in Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] .

In addition, after the above purchases, I also gave a “preview” on three potential plays that I think are setting up, maybe as soon as tomorrow. And remember, this is the kind of thing that is happening every day on The PPT, and not just with my picks, but with trades, observations and analyses of every serious trader involved on these pages and elsewhere.

As a result, we’ve become near-Homeric in our collective winship. Grab an oar if you like, we’re off to Troy again tomorrow.

Slange (sic).

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Makeup bonus:  Just to prove I’m not an over-secretive ogre, I’ll divulge a non-PM tasty I’ve been eyeing.  Take a look at ANADIGICS, Inc. [[ANAD]] on a pullback to $4.75-.80 here.  I think it’s going places. Best to you.

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While it may have seemed we only experienced a slight pullback day for the market, today was in fact a sad day for the Jacksonians, as we saw another original candidate get the old “heave ho” out the door for lack of performance.  I will admit, I gave Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] a little more leeway than I did Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , as it carried with it a phat dividend (over 10% as of today) and it was a royalty play rather than an operating miner (much like fellow Jackson Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is a gold royalty play), which I thought gave it some “rent safety” over the operators.  No such luck.

You see in prudent Jackson land, there’s only so much loss a play can take, and when NRP broke $19.31 today (a significant support level), it hit our stop, and we sold the remainder (207.555 shares) for a loss of 19.9%. Luckily, I only had 1/2 a position left, having sold the first half at $20.50. Still the bludgeoning (before dividend payments) was substantial.

What was I thinking picking a stock with a symbol so easily dyslexia’d into the acronym for National Public Radio, anyway?   Should’ve been a sign to me …

Luckily, despite these minor setbacks, the rest of the Jacksonians are hammering along hard enough to keep the overall returns over 21.6% since inception on May 1st. The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] remain my top winners (even as I added to my TCK a scant few weeks ago at current levels, my blended return is still 40%).

I believe the gold and silvers are going to take off here as we head into the last months of the year, as they are wont to do historically. In that regard, IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] are my top performers, with returns of 44.64%, 39.13% and 30.05%, respectively, since May 1st inception. Of those, I think SLW will have the greatest momentum as we head towards Christmas, because silver continues to be undervalued compared to gold.

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Speaking of gold opportunities, I threw out New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] yesterday, and although it didn’t move an inch either way today, I continue to think it a strong play here, especially on a pullback to the $3.30 area.   If we’re not that lucky, I believe it’s a buy over $3.55 as well. 

I also wanted to point out another junior that I think will be a mover going forward here — Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Have a look at the daily chart:

And really, I think the weekly should cinch it for you.  It’s so eeeeeasy– a cup and handle, for goodness sakes!  And on the weekly, no less.    My take:  wait for that break of $3.21, and then… blammo!

 

One last admonition — watch [[UUP]] tomorrow for your signal.  A break above $23.31 or so will mean a little bit more waiting on the gold selections.  But if  UUP turns down again– towards my target of $23.05, that will probably mark the break out run of a great many junior gold and silver plays.

Best of luck to all my Jacksonian stalwarts. 

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